The US continues with modest plans for the Middle East, despite uncertainty about the elections

WASHINGTON — With the U.S. presidential election just a week away, the Biden administration is not giving up hope for short-term ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But US officials are aware that political uncertainty in the United States has made the parties reluctant to enter into major agreements before it is clear who has won the White House.

Meanwhile, the Middle East is worried about what will happen after Israel struck Iranian military targets last weekend in retaliation for Iran’s barrage of ballistic missile attacks on October 1.

US officials said they believe Israel’s attack – whose targets were coordinated with Washington – will not provoke an escalating response from Iran. But the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share sensitive diplomatic discussions, caution that nothing is certain.

The Biden administration convinced Israel to keep its response limited — receiving assurances that it would not hit nuclear or oil sites in Iran that would have escalated the conflict — despite limited U.S. influence as Biden’s term ends. As Israel’s closest ally and key mediator in the Middle East, the US still insists on any move toward a ceasefire, despite past disappointments and little expectation of immediate breakthroughs.

“I don’t get the sense that the Israelis feel a tremendous sense of urgency,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I feel like they feel a lot less urgency now than they did a few months ago.”

US efforts in Gaza

As conditions, especially in Gaza, continue to deteriorate, the government is backing an Egyptian proposal for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza, under which Hamas would release a limited number of hostages and potentially open more routes for much-needed humanitarian aid to reach the Gaza Strip. reaches. enclave, US officials say.

President Joe Biden said Monday he would join his staff in discussing the proposal.

“We need a ceasefire. We must end this war. It should end. It should end. It has to end,” Biden said.

One of the officials said the government would support virtually any suggestion that leads to a reduction in suffering for Palestinian civilians and the release of hostages, but stressed that “we are not holding our breath.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar last week was aimed at gauging the region’s appetite for such an agreement. Officials said Blinken emerged from his meetings cautiously optimistic but acknowledged that previous similar hopes had been dashed.

“What we really need to determine is whether Hamas is willing to engage,” Blinken said last week. He said the killing of Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar helped open a window for new talks on a ceasefire proposal that has been languishing for months.

Underscoring U.S. support for a deal, CIA Director William Burns took part in weekend talks in Doha with senior Israeli and Qatari officials on a possible path forward. There was no immediate outcome, but lower-level talks are expected to continue this week.

The prospects for the success of even such a modest proposal – which would fall far short of previous plans for a three-phase ceasefire – are uncertain, as Hamas, despite heavy losses on the ground, calls for anything less than a full deal has rejected. – on the ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Hamas has yet to formally respond to the Egyptian plan, although Israel has indicated it is willing to consider the idea.

Longer-term ideas for Gaza’s post-conflict future are a work in progress, according to the US officials, who say Israel’s battlefield assessments will play a key role in determining what Israel might agree to.

So far, Israel has firmly rejected any governance or security role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, a dealbreaker for both the authority and Arab countries, whose support will be crucial to the success of any plan.

While the U.S. election may be a factor, even if there was no vote on Nov. 5, Israel shows little sign of being motivated to pursue a ceasefire, said Alterman, the analyst.

“As far as I know, it doesn’t feel like we’re on the verge of a breakthrough,” Alterman said.

American pressure on Lebanon

In Lebanon, where Israel has stepped up military operations against Hezbollah over the past month, U.S. officials concede that a short-term solution is likely unrealistic.

That’s because Lebanon’s fractured political leadership is distrusted by Israeli officials and because the Lebanese forces have not yet taken convincing action to stop Hezbollah fighters from attacking Israel from southern Lebanon.

Biden aide Amos Hochstein — who has been at the forefront of the administration’s efforts to deter Israel and Hezbollah from launching a full-scale war — will be in the region this week to get a sense from Israeli officials about what they might be willing to support .

Depending on what he hears, he may next travel to Lebanon to investigate what officials there might be willing to do to prevent further Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern and central Israel, officials said.

Complicating matters in both Gaza and Lebanon is that neither Hamas nor Hezbollah have announced replacements after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ Sinwar in recent weeks.