Botswana elections: who is in the race and what is at stake? | Elections News

Amid a punishing drought and a massive drop in diamond revenues, up to 1 million eligible voters in Botswana will go to the polls on Wednesday in a tense general election.

Africa’s longest-standing democracy is considered one of the continent’s most stable countries, with power having been transferred peacefully in every election since independence from Britain in the 1960s. However, this time there are fears that there will be violence after the elections.

“There are tensions in the country due to the changing political landscape,” election observer Tendai Mbanje of the African Center for Governance Election Observation told Al Jazeera. “Unlike in the past, there has been increased political competition.”

The landlocked South African country uses an indirect election system: voters elect parliamentarians. The head of the ruling party is appointed president for the next five years after the votes are counted.

Blessed with precious stones and the second largest diamond reserves in the world after Russia, Botswana has abundant natural wealth. It also has the largest elephant population in the world.

Although slightly larger than France, Botswana’s population is less than 4 percent that of France. There are only 2.5 million people spread across the country, with the Kalahari Desert covering much of its territory.

Yet Botswana has influence in the region. Gaborone, the capital, is home to the headquarters of the regional economic bloc – the Southern African Development Commission (SADC). At this year’s Paris Olympics in June, athlete Letsile Tebogo also became the men’s 200m champion, further cementing Botswana’s mark on the international stage.

The country is a secular state, although most people are Christian. English and Setswana, spoken by the majority of the Tswana group, are the official languages. A person from Botswana is a Motswana, while the people of Botswana are collectively called Batswana.

Here’s what you need to know about the October 30 polls:

How does voting work?

Voters will elect 61 members of the National Assembly and 609 municipal council seats in the 16 local governments across the country.

Legislators are elected through a first-past-the-vote or preference system.

In turn, the political party with the most seats will choose the president.

Botswana is a multi-party state, but the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has dominated the polls since 1969. The party won 38 of 57 seats in the 2019 general election and is set to win another election on Wednesday.

Who’s running?

President Mokgweetsi Masisi

As a representative of the BDP, 63-year-old Masisi is taking one last step towards the presidency. He is the favorite to win because of his position as president and the BDP’s 58-year dominance. The party is increasingly weakened by internal frictions, but still has a strong support base among the rural population and the Tswana-majority ethnic group.

Masisi was vice president to former President Ian Khama, who, after the end of his term, hand-picked Masisi in 2018. However, the two politicians fell out when Masisi took office, leading to Khama leaving the party along with his loyalists. Khama accused Masisi of treason for reversing policies including lifting a ban on trophy and elephant hunting in the country and decriminalizing homosexuality.

Masisi was president in the 2019 elections and won. His tenure is overshadowed by his battle with Khama, which is tearing the BDP apart internally as factions emerge. A global drop in diamond prices in recent years has also reflected poorly on the president, with many blaming him for rising inflation and unemployment at home.

Internationally, Masisi has ruffled feathers over his stance on elephant hunting. In April he threatened to send 20,000 elephants to Germany after the European country tried to ban the import of trophies. However, the president won plaudits at home last July after renegotiating a long-term deal with mining company De Beers to increase by 100 percent the shares of rough diamonds Botswana receives from their joint partnership.

Although the country has always had peaceful elections, fighting within the BDP and growing anger against President Masisi’s economic policies under Batswana are raising fears of possible post-election tensions.

Duma Boko

The 54-year-old lawyer leads a coalition of opposition parties under the banner of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).

The UDC coalition significantly challenged the BDP in 2019 to come second with 15 seats.

Boko now remains the biggest threat to Masisi as the usually weak Botswana opposition becomes increasingly popular, leading some local analysts to speculate that the result could be too close, although many disagree.

Boko’s UDC promises more lucrative jobs to youths and has tried to woo voters with the promise of government subsidies.

Dumelang Saleshando

Saleshando, 53, is the leader of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), another of the main opposition parties.

The BCP has won between 10 and 20 percent of the votes in previous elections.

The party has pledged to “save Botswana” and pledged to provide an average monthly living wage of 4,000 pula ($299) by 2029, up from the current 1,500 pula ($112).

Mephato Reatile

Reatile is the leader of the Botswana Patriotic Front, one of the newest parties with only four members in parliament. The party was formed by supporters of ex-president Khama after his departure from the BDP.

Khama returned from a three-year self-imposed exile to South Africa in September to support the party, hoping to remove the BDP and its rival Masisi, increasing tensions around the election.

The former leader also appeared in court upon his return on charges of illegal weapons possession and money laundering, sparking more controversy.

However, analysts say fears of possible violence in local media are exaggerated. “The elections will be a fierce battle, but there are no expectations of violent elections,” election observer Mbanje said.

What are the most important issues?

Diamond shocks to the economy

Botswana grew rapidly from a low-income country to a middle-income country in the 1970s, thanks to diamond sales, which make up 80 percent of exports. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is pegged at $7,250, one of the highest on the continent. By comparison, Gambia, with a similar population, has a GDP per capita of $800.

However, more nuanced economic indicators tell a different side of the story. A lack of diversification away from diamonds, which the country exports in rough, unprocessed form, has bedeviled the economy amid a global slump in diamond prices in recent years. The price crash is being driven by intensified demand for much cheaper synthetic or lab-grown diamonds, which are exceeding demand for real diamonds in key markets such as China and the United States.

Debswana, the company jointly owned by Botswana and mining company De Beers, saw sales fall by 47 percent in the first half of 2024. There are fears of massive cuts in mining supply chains, and inflation is now hitting Batswana hard.

Unemployment and inequality

Despite Botswana’s wealth, unemployment remains significant at 27 percent.

The country, like its South African counterparts, also remains one of the most unequal societies, with large gaps between rich and poor.

This inequality dates back to colonial cattle ownership, which made some parts of society much wealthier. Successive governments have also failed to distribute diamond revenues more evenly across the population.

Drought and nature conservation

Higher temperatures caused by climate change are causing Botswana to increasingly experience severe droughts that are impacting food production and water supplies. This in turn threatens livelihoods and has pushed more than 10 percent of the population into chronic food insecurity, the United Nations said. Agency, OCHA.

Crop yields are declining, with grain production reaching just 23 percent of national needs in the 2022-2023 season, amid the erratic rainy season. In July 2023, Botswana declared a state of emergency due to the drought.

That also puts pressure on the country’s abundant wildlife. President Masisi has spoken out about the country’s need to sell elephants for revenue and allow their hunting to reduce their numbers and thus increase pressure, but this is a controversial position that has earned him condemnation from international animal rights groups .

Democratic gains and constitutional revision

Many of Masisi’s opponents accuse him of suppressing dissent and overturning democratically passed laws such as the ban on trophy hunting. However, analysts point out that Botswana has maintained a stable democracy under Masisi’s government.

“The accusations of dictatorship by opponents are the result of frustration over the upcoming constitutional review process that Masisi’s government has apparently failed to deliver,” Mbanje said, referring to a three-year constitutional amendment process that was approved this year but did not fully come into effect.

The new regulations would ban retired presidents from holding other high-ranking positions, prevent citizens from two countries from being elected to parliament, change the composition of the country’s judiciary and strengthen protections for the LGBTQ community.