Kamala Harris Wins Big as Polls Repeat 2022 Error: Election Analyst

Kamala Harris could win in a landslide if the polls underestimate the numbers Democrats the same way as in 2022, according to CNN poll analyst Harry Enten.

According to Enten, polls underestimated Democrats by an average of 4 points in the midterm elections, with Democrats winning 51 seats in the election. Senate while the Republicans took over the House.

Enten’s analysis found that if polls underestimate Democrats again this year, Harris could win 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, meaning she would win all the crucial battleground states and win the presidency.

Enten also noted that polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016, when he represented 30 states, and in 2020, when he represented 25 states. According to the analysis, the Republican‘s best polls were an average of 8 points better than 2020 in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, his best polling shows Trump, trailing Harris by 1 point, 3 points above his polling average in the three Great Lakes states this year. But Enten said it is unlikely that the polls will underestimate Trump again this year, as no party has been underestimated in the polls in swing states for three consecutive presidential elections since at least 1972.

According to Enten, the polls for Trump in swing states may be “too good” and actually underestimate Harris.

“Here is the end result,” he said. ‘I think a lot of people take that into account Donald Trump will in fact be underestimated by the polls, but looking at the evidence I think there are those who underestimate the idea that Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls in a week.”

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

Opinion polls currently suggest Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College. Opinion pollster, for example Nate SilverThe forecast shows Harris ahead by 0.9 points, with a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote. But because of Trump’s position in swing states, his prediction shows Harris has a 44 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while her opponent has a 55 percent chance.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 1.4-point lead nationally but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48 percent chance.

Both aggregators show Trump leading in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight’s prediction shows Harris with a 0.1 point lead in Nevada, while Silver’s prediction shows the two candidates tied.

In 2020, polls showed that President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then-President Trump. Just before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average. However, he won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points – just enough for an Electoral College victory.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research labeled the 2020 election miss as the biggest in 40 years, with polls overestimating Biden’s advantage in recent weeks.

Similarly, FiveThirtyEight gave in 2016 Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.

Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, told Newsweek this week that the polls in 2020 and 2016 were inaccurate because Trump supporters opted out of surveys due to distrust in institutions like the mainstream media and polling places.

“Trump supporters may have less trust in the institutions that sponsor these polls. If they choose not to participate because of this distrust, their support will not be accurately reflected,” Keeter said.

Although polls have historically tended to underestimate Trump’s support, pollsters have adjusted their methods in response to past inaccuracies, increasingly using online and text message surveys.

Polling methods have changed significantly since 2016, when many surveys still relied on landlines, despite less than half of U.S. households having them. By 2022, 61 percent of U.S. polling organizations that conducted national surveys in 2016 had switched to updated methods.

Experts also believe that polls will be more accurate this year as adjustments now better account for likely Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented.

“Many pollsters today use past voting history to correct for Trump’s underestimation,” said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos Polling. told earlier Newsweek.