Key defense voices in Congress face tough election battles

Several incumbent members of Congress with key leadership positions on defense and veterans policy could be ousted next week when voters go to the polls Tuesday. Here are three of the top race advocates they’re watching and the impact they could have on crucial legislation for troops and veterans next year:

Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.

Tester’s re-election bid is one of the most closely watched races in the country because it could decide which party controls the Senate in 2025.

Democratic Party members currently hold a one-seat lead in the Senate but are expected to lose at least one spot due to the retirement of West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin. If Tester loses, the majority could go to the Republicans.

Recent polls have shown the 68-year-old incumbent president trailing his Republican opponent, former Army Ranger Tim Sheehy. Tester, who has served in the Senate since 2007, had considered retirement before choosing to run again this cycle.

Tester serves as chairman of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee and chairman of the Senate Committee on Defense Issues panel. In both roles, he was a leading voice on military and veteran funding and was a prominent figure in advancing the sweeping PACT Act two years ago.

His departure would have significant ripple effects throughout the Senate Democratic caucus, given his committee roles and position as a moderate leader within the party.

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-California.

By 2022, Calvert won his re-election bid over Democrat Will Rollins with fewer than 11,000 votes, less than 5% of the total votes cast in the race. The two will meet again in November, with polls showing the battle to be just as close.

Reapportionment by state officials for California’s 41st congressional district left Calvert with a less favorable election map two years ago than in his previous fourteen election bids. Before 2022, Calvert — the longest-serving Republican member of California’s congressional delegation — had won all of his campaigns over the past decade by significant margins.

Calvert chairs the House Appropriations Committee’s defense panel and leads the debate on Defense Department funding issues. In recent years, that has included a number of social policy changes aligned with spending bills, much to the chagrin of Democratic critics.

If he loses this cycle, it would not only mean his voice is removed from the Republican military budget debates, but it could also mean the end of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Democratic candidates only need to win five seats in the House to gain a majority before 2025.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.

Bacon is a four-term congressman with a reputation for bipartisanship and a military background. He served in the Air Force for 29 years, including a deployment to Iraq in 2007.

As a member of the House Armed Services Committee, he was tapped last year lead the panel’s efforts to improve the quality of life for service members. That culminated in a comprehensive report released earlier this year calling for better pay for young troops and better support services for military families.

Some of these reforms are included in legislation pending before Congress is in session. But many of the proposals are expected to be included in the annual defense authorization debate next spring.

Whether Bacon will be there to lead that debate remains to be seen. Polls show a close race between him and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas. Like Calvert’s race, Bacon’s fight is seen as a crucial victory for Republicans if they want to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives next year.