How China sees the US presidential election: ‘It is a major political drama’

LOS ANGELES – It is one of the rare points of agreement among American presidential candidates: China poses a major threat to the United States.

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have campaigned hard against Chinese competition. And no wonder: surveys show that American opinion of China has sunk to an all-time low.

But how do people in China view the US elections?

The Times spoke with Yawei Liu, founder and editor of the US-China Perception Monitor. Based in Atlanta, where Liu is a senior China adviser at the Carter Center, the organization collects information from Chinese scholars and opinion leaders, opinion polls and Chinese media reports.

The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

What do the Chinese think of these presidential elections?

The Chinese are literally fascinated by these elections.

They are intrigued by the rise and fall of President Biden. They are excited about the prospect that a woman of color could become president of the United States for the first time. And they’re certainly trying to figure out why someone like Trump can have such a long political life, despite all the scandals, despite half the country hating him, despite all the problems that would disqualify any other politician.

In China there is no outlet for any form of political participation. So reading (about) – and commenting on – this American election satisfies some of that urge to participate.

What was surprising about this election compared to previous?

In 2000, we had Chinese government officials and scientists here in the US to observe the election. And when they got up the next day, there was still no president. From that moment on, the American elections became a very fascinating topic for the Chinese elite. In 2016 there was the surprise winner, Donald Trump.

This election, because of the assassination attempts, because of Biden’s abrupt exit from the race, because of (the) meteoric rise of Kamala Harris, there are just so many of these things that are not usually associated with mature democracies. It’s a big political drama.

Chinese media portrayal the chaos of the candidates and the campaign cycle as a symbol of the failure of American democracy. Do the Chinese also see it that way??

They are divided into two camps.

One says that the American elections are only about money and people like Elon Musk. And also that if Trump loses, he will say the election was stolen. So that camp believes this is a sign that democracy is not working. It is a sign that the US has declined as a superpower.

But then there is the other camp that says that a few days before the election we still don’t know who the winner will be, which underlines the strength of American democracy. These are real, competitive and transparent elections.

So depending on where you are on the ideological spectrum, you may find things that support your own argument.

Does China believe that one candidate would be better than the other for its own interests?

There is a bipartisan consensus that China poses an existential threat to the US – a threat far greater than Russia.

If Harris wins, it will likely be a repeat of President Biden’s current policy toward China.

But the Chinese should probably be prepared for surprises if Trump becomes president. If he says the US doesn’t want to defend Taiwan, that’s probably something China would like to hear.

The personality, the character of the president – ​​that probably has the biggest impact.

What are Chinese perceptions? by Has Trump changed since he was last elected in 2016?

The majority of China’s well-informed elite probably did not believe he could be elected. A bigger surprise was that he was the first candidate to translate his campaign rhetoric into policy. Look at Clinton; in 1992 he said he would take down dictators from Baghdad to Beijing. Look at George W. Bush saying the US and China are rivals, we’re going to compete. But once they were elected, they quickly forgot what they were talking about, especially in the case of China. Trump was the one who put (his tough talk) to work.

Then the riot in the Capitol was a big surprise to many Chinese, because American democracy was known for the peaceful transfer of power.

But Trump defied it and tried to overturn the election results. At the time, many did not believe that he could really become a candidate this year because he had been convicted. Now they’re just holding their breath to see who will emerge victorious on November 5.

Traditionally, the informed view of the American political system is that a free press and mature political institutions—checks and balances and the rule of law—will promote cleaner, more efficient, and more decent political leaders. The rise of Trump has certainly quashed such beliefs and made people more doubtful about the usefulness of the Western democratic system.

What do people in China think of Harris?

They are well aware that if she wins, it will be a sign of the vibrancy of American democracy. Obama was elected in 2008, which was very inspiring. If she wins in 2024, it will certainly be a miracle and will likely be another story of inspiration, that every dream can become a reality in this country called the United States. It is easier to associate Trump with the weakening of American institutions.

Her vice presidential pick Tim Walz has experience teaching in China. What do the Chinese think about that?

Taking trips to China, understanding Chinese culture, having friends in China, does not mean that as vice president, if he wins, he will be friendlier to China.

You have Kevin Rudd from Australia. There was initially a lot of excitement about Australians electing a Chinese-speaking Prime Minister in 2007. But he actually had a very strict policy towards China.

Then you have Gary Locke as the first Chinese-American US ambassador to China in 2011. He is not exactly friendly, at least as reported by Chinese media.

And now you have Katherine Tai as the current US trade representative, and she’s tougher on China than anyone else.

How did the Chinese media cover these elections?

The Chinese media is doing everything they can to cover these elections.

There is little censorship on what can be reported. They don’t like to talk about how they talk about China. Beyond that, it’s just open game when it comes to how to beat this election.

There is also a new phenomenon: more and more people get their information from social media.

I remember in 2020, a blog I wrote (on the Chinese site Baidu) was able to get more than millions of views within 24 hours. That’s how interested the readership in China is.

Chinese official media has tended to portray the US in serious decline, as evidenced by the January 6 riots, unpreparedness in responding to the pandemic, worsening race relations, and money-dominated political process.

Many in China also believe that the US is doing everything it can to contain China’s rise. Although some of these perceptions are supported by carefully selected evidence, the overall Chinese perception of the US cannot be described as objective and fair.