The election results of this Lehigh Valley congressional district race could portend the presidency

ALLENTOWN — With just days left in the high-stakes election, U.S. Rep. Susan Wild sat on a panel alongside two Democratic senators at a Lehigh Valley community college this week and said her Republican opponent is joining anti- abortion groups and access to reproductive health care. concern.

Hours later and a few miles away, that opponent, State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, spoke during a rally for former President Donald Trump and told 8,000 Trump supporters that Wild is responsible for “economic heartbreak” and a “wide open southern border.”

“Are you ready to fire Susan Wild?” he asked, to loud applause.

Using dueling strategies to tie each other to unpopular national figures, Wild and Mackenzie attempt to represent Pennsylvania’s 7th District, which covers much of the Lehigh Valley, in the final days of the race. Wild has been representing the area since 2018, when Democrats won a wave of seats in Congress two years after Trump took over the White House.

This year’s race is shaping up to be Wild’s fourth highly competitive general election is one of the few races that could tilt control of the U.S. House, Where Republicans currently have a narrow majority.

The outcome could also predict the presidency. The 7th District has been one of Pennsylvania’s most trusted congressional districts, leading the country through several presidential elections.

The Eastern District of Pennsylvania is in some ways a microcosm of America. It includes Allentown, the state’s third-largest city, with a majority Latino population. It has grown suburbs are becoming increasingly blue. And it has rural areas and a bit of the Poconos that are definitely Trump country.

“It has that magical mix of areas,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor and pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. “You look at the partisan divide, the presidential voting record, and everything points to it being ultra-competitive.”

That intensity is palpable throughout the Lehigh Valley, where political signs seem to be on every lawn and where elections dominate much of daily life, from television to billboards and signs hanging in businesses.

Borick said the level of saturation could make it difficult for a candidate like Mackenzie to break through and increase his name recognition, as much of the political oxygen is devoted to the presidential campaign and the competitive Senate race among Democrats sitting president. Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

Most analysts say Wild — who won by just two percentage points two years ago — is somewhat favored to win reelection. Limited public polling, including a survey by Muhlenberg taken about a month ago, shows her a few points ahead, but within the margin of error. Her campaign and her Democratic allies have largely outspent Mackenzie.

But it’s still a close race, and Mackenzie has had help from high-profile Republican surrogates campaigning for him in the area, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.). Mackenzie has crisscrossed the district, campaigning for months and courting voters across the Republican and independent spectrum.

“Susan Wild is a formidable campaigner. She always has been,” said Sam Chen, a GOP strategist based in the Lehigh Valley. “But I think Ryan Mackenzie is the toughest campaigner she has faced.”

Before Wild won the seat, it was held by Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, a moderate who has been critical of Trump, saying: he voted for Vice President Kamala Harris this year. Before Dent, Pat Toomey, a Republican who later served in the Senate, represented the district. Toomey is traditionally more conservative, but voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial and said this year he won’t vote for him.

Mackenzie is not following the path of Republicans who previously held the seat he was seeking.

He has sided with Trump and campaigned this week with Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son. At the Trump rally Tuesday Mackenzie said he would be a steadfast supporter of Trump if he regains the presidency.

“If we’re going to do all the hard work to elect Donald J. Trump back to the White House, he’s going to need a Congress to support him and implement all these policies,” Mackenzie said.

But Mackenzie has also presented herself in the commercial as a pragmatic state representative who can work with Democrats to pass bipartisan legislation. He has focused his campaign on improving the economy and does not dabble in culture war issues as much as Trump.

Borick said Mackenzie – the same way as McCormick — is trying to strike a balance between appealing to Trump’s MAGA movement and maintaining support in the suburbs.

“Ryan Mackenzie is running an excellent race,” said Joe Vichot, the GOP chairman in Lehigh County. “He was the perfect candidate. It’s already served. He has a record to speak of. And he knows how to challenge Susan Wild in this area.”

Naturally, Democrats are skeptical of the image Mackenzie is trying to cultivate. Wild has portrayed him as a supporter of extremist groups, and her campaign is bombarding him with ads saying he will abolish Social Security and Medicare. Mackenzie has denied that and has presented himself as the candidate who will protect these programs.

Wild has also said Mackenzie would threaten access to abortion and other forms of reproductive health care, citing a vote he held in the state House that would have restricted abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Wild has made women’s health issues a cornerstone of her time in Congress, including championing a bill to protect access to in vitro fertilization.

Mackenzie has called himself “pro-life” but says he opposes a national abortion ban and would work to expand access to IVF. “Susan Wild is misleading voters,” he says on his campaign website.

State Rep. Josh Siegel, a Democrat who represents parts of Allentown, said this is “false moderation” and suggested Mackenzie favors a status quo banning or severely restricting abortion in other states around the country.

“Ryan is by no means a moderate,” Siegel said. “And I think you will see that in the results.”