Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

Big Ten football is getting a makeover this weekend as new conference contender, No. 1 Oregon, hits the road Saturday against Michigan at the Big House in college football’s Week 10 action. Here’s what to look out for in the game, with our updated forecast.

Michigan improved to 3-2 in Big Ten play after a win over Michigan State, but still plays one of the most anemic offenses in the country and its playoff chances are all but toast.

Oregon, on the other hand, climbed to the No. 1 ranking nationally after a signature one-point win over Ohio State and remains one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams.

What can we expect when the Ducks and Wolverines face off in this new Big Ten clash?

Here’s what to watch for when Oregon and Michigan meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Air it out. Michigan can’t do that, ranking 129th out of 134 FBS teams in passing output and 109th in scoring, and it’s up to Davis Warren to find some holes in an Oregon pass defense that’s among the best, allowing a completion of less than 57% is possible, only 5.9. yards per attempt, and only 4 touchdowns through the air all season. These tacklers are fast, hit hard and can close your throwing lanes before you know they are open.

2. On the ground. Amid the Ducks’ other offensive success, running the ball is still something of a question mark, as they rank just 61st nationally with 167 yards per game, and it will be crucial to stop the run against a Establish a Michigan defense that ranks 15th against the rush and plays a physical brand of interior football that could challenge Oregon’s interior protection.

3. Test Michigan deep. Oregon ranks 12th in FBS in passing output, completing 76% of its passes with over 9 yards per play thanks to Dillon Gabriel’s partnership with some stealthy receivers, and they were able to find some space against the Wolverines’ pass defense.

Michigan’s secondary has changed its strategy from week to week, sometimes closing down those deep lanes in zone coverage, resulting in other teams making mediocre passing gains. Other times it would cause more pressure near the line, resulting in them being beaten deep.

Oregon has the variety and speed to utilize both approaches: they can cut you to pieces with a series of intermediate throws, and they have the jets to just run those tacklers over on the long shots.

Michigan is the only team in college football with one Average score margin of 0.0 points this season.

Oregon did better, on average 20.7 points better than its opponents in 2024.

Over the last three games, those averages have diverged, as Oregon has played 21.7 points better than its opponents during that time, while Michigan has been 5.7 points worse.

And those numbers are again separated when it comes to location: Michigan is 4 points better than the opposition at home, while Oregon is 30.3 points better when you play on the go.

Michigan is average 21.5 points per game this season, he’s ranked No. 97 nationally against an Oregon defense that makes that happen 15.9 points per gamegood for 9th place in FBS.

And the Wolverines come in at just 120th 303.1 total yards per game of offensive output, while the Ducks are 14th in total defense, allowing 308.7 yards per game average.

Michigan ranks 81st in FBS with 0.348 points per game average this season, while Oregon is 8th in the nation in surrenders 0.245 points per game in 2024.

Michigan also ranks just 101st in the country 4.9 yards per play average, compared to a Ducks defense that allows this 4.8 yards per playRanked 19th.

Playing on third down, the Wolverines converted 42 out of 103 chances this season, for a success rate of 40.78 percent.

Oregon just allowed it 34 of 103 third down chances to be converted by opponents, ending in a 33.01 percent pass rate.

Michigan is efficient in the red zone and converts 14 out of 17 chances in points for one 82.35 percent success ratebut those 17 opportunities are the third-fewest nationally.

Oregon has surrendered 18 of 22 chances in the red zone convertible into points (81.82%).

Oregon is ranked 16th in the FBS this season 36.6 points per game while Michigan’s defense ranks 34th nationally in allowing 21.5 points per game.

And the Ducks rank 9th in average this season 464.4 total yards per game compared to a Wolverines defense that ranks 25th in surrenders 329.5 yards per game average.

Oregon is average 0.553 points per game which is good for 12th in FBS this season while Michigan allows it 0.316 points per game on average in 33rd place.

On a per game basis, the Ducks enter this weekend ranked sixth nationally Averaged 7 yards per play while the Wolverines allow it 4.8 yards per play of opponents, in 25th place.

Oregon is No. 8 out of 134 FBS teams in third down offense, 47 of 94 chances converted for one 50 percent success rate while Michigan ranks 91st in third-down defense, making this possible 48 out of 117 chances (41.03%).

When working from scoring position, Oregon has pivoted 29 of 34 chances in the red zone in points for one 85.29 percent success rate.

Of those scores, 24 were converted into touchdowns (70.59%).

Michigan allowed it 24 of 31 chances in the red zone to convert points defensively this season, giving up points on 77.42 percent of opportunities.

And 17 of those scores were touchdowns (54.84%).

Most analytical models also suggest a comfortable win for the Ducks on the road.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is expected to win the match by a majority 77.8 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining series 22.2 percent from sims.

Oregon is one 14.5 points favorite against Michigan, according to updates on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (over -108, under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon -720 and for Michigan +490 to win outright.

The absence of Michigan’s vertical game will give the Ducks more opportunities to crowd the line of scrimmage with a rotation of skilled tacklers who can limit gains on the ground and prevent breakaway runs from the Wolverines’ backs.

And while Michigan has the personnel to do the same in Oregon and generate some credible pressure from its front seven, the Ducks’ offensive line has rebounded well enough from some early-season issues and Gabriel should be clean to find its outlets.

College Football HQ chooses…

More…Oregon vs. Michigan score prediction by expert model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 3:30 PM ET | 12:30 PM PT
TV: CBS Network

–

The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: Bookmark | Rankings | Choices