Pittsburgh vs. Prediction SMU: who wins and why?

In a critical ACC matchup, two teams are undefeated in conference play on the same field as No. 18. Pittsburgh goes on the road against No. 20 SMU in Week 10 college football action. Here’s what to watch out for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Pittsburgh rallied Syracuse a week ago behind a gutsy defense that led to three of the team’s five interceptions being returned for touchdowns, moving it to 7-0 on the year as one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams.

SMU earned a 1-point win over Duke last time out despite six turnovers and a failed two-point attempt to escape with the win, improving to 7-1 overall with a 4-0 mark in ACC play.

What can we expect when the Panthers and Mustangs go head-to-head in this ACC battle?

Here’s what to watch for when Pittsburgh and SMU meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, with our updated prediction.

1. Press. Pitt recorded 12 sacks in the first 5 games, but added another 10 sacks to that total over the final 2 games behind an increasingly confident linebacker group, which ranked 20th nationally and averaged 3.14 sacks per game.

SMU is strong in protection and doesn’t allow many negative plays, allowing just 1.13 sacks per game and only 9 total all year, combined with 4.25 tackles for loss allowed per game.

2. On the phone. SMU’s blockers have paved the way for a productive rushing attack, one that ranks 23rd nationally with 201 yards per game, an average of 4.73 yards per carry and 19 total touchdowns.

But the Panthers are up to the task and rank 9th in the FBS in rush defense, averaging 94 yards, just 2.52 yards per carry and only 6 total TDs on the ground, 6th nationally .

3. Watch for injuries. Also for both quarterbacks. SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been cleared to play after suffering an undisclosed problem last week. Good thing for the Mustangs, he’s 5-0 as a starter with 10 touchdowns and 5 picks, and is a capable runner, with 321 yards and 3 more touchdowns at the helm of the ACC’s third-ranked scoring attack.

Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein was also cleared to play, head coach Pat Narduzzi confirmed, after the player was injured during a run last week. He has 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and plays his best football in the fourth quarter, hitting 75% of his throws with 4 scores and no turnovers.

So far this year, Pittsburgh has averaged out 12.7 points better than its opponents on the same field, while SMU has done well 12.9 points better than the competition in 2024.

Over the past three games, both teams have played similarly against their respective opponents.

Pittsburgh has been 13.3 points better average than its opponents at the time, while SMU was 12.7 points better than the competition during that period.

Playing on the road, Pitt saw his margin of victory decrease, causing him to win games 5.5 points average against opponents away from home.

SMU has been 15.7 points better than their opponents on average when they play at home this season.

Pittsburgh ranks 19th nationally with 35.5 points per game on average, this goes against an SMU defense that ranks 51st in FBS in allowing 23.4 points per game.

In terms of overall production, the Panthers offense is average 408 yards per game this season, they rank 44th in the nation, while the Mustangs’ defense is 45th in surrenders 351.3 yards per game.

Pittsburgh ranks 15th out of 134 FBS teams in average 0.534 points per game this season compared to SMU, which ranks 38th in allowing defense 0.325 points per game average.

In third place, Pitt is only 94th nationally by moving the chains further 36.11 percent of conversion opportunities, while SMU is 38th in FBS in allowing opponents to move the chains further 34.31 percent of third chances.

Pitt is 33rd in red zone scoring nationally and coming away with points 90.48 percent of chances inside the opponent’s 20, while SMU allows points 82.61 percent of opportunities.

SMU ranks seventeenth nationally in terms of average 36.3 points per game this season, against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 44th in surrenders 22.8 points per game average.

When considering the total violation post SMU 421.9 yards per game this season he was ranked 37th in the country against a Pitt defense that allowed it 356.2 yards per gamenumber 50 in FBS.

SMU is average 0.522 points per game average offensively, ranking No. 19 nationally in that category, compared to a Pitt defense that ranks 16th in defense, allowing 0.281 points per game this season.

SMU posts 6.1 yards per play in total offensive output, No. 35 in FBS, but the Panthers rank 9th nationally and surrender 4.4 yards per play.

On third down, the Mustangs move the chains 43.33 percent at the time, No. 36 in FBS, while the Panthers are allowing conversions 30.93 percent of opportunities.

SMU has converted 26 of its 32 red zone opportunities into points, for one 81.25 percent success rate, and 21 of those 26 scores (65.53 percent) are touchdowns.

Most other analytical models are siding with the Mustangs over the undefeated Panthers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

SMU is expected to win the game by a majority 70.2 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the remaining series 29.8 percent from sims.

SMU is expected to be like this 7.7 points better then Pittsburgh on the same field in the final simulations of both teams against each other, according to the model’s latest prediction.

SMU is one 7.5 points favorite against Pittsburgh, according to updated rules on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game (over -114, under -106).

And it set up the moneyline odds for SMU -275 and for Pittsburgh on +220 to win outright.

Pittsburgh has the defensive personnel to contain the Mustangs’ skill threats, but they’ve played some close games and haven’t really faced a team this talented yet this season.

SMU can pack a punch by controlling the ball, and the added bonus of Jennings’ mobility could be just the combination to finally outmaneuver Pitt’s aggressive seven chasers.

Holstein’s passing production has been spotty this season and if he doesn’t play his best game it could leave room for the Mustangs to pull away, but SMU’s turnover problems in recent outings could make this closer than it home crowd would do. prefer.

College Football HQ chooses…

More…Pittsburgh vs. SMU score prediction by expert model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 8:00 PM ET | 7pm CT
TV: ACC Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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