Who is currently winning the presidential elections? What polls predict

With only five days to go until the elections, Donald Trump And Kamala Harris remain locked in a fierce battle in Arizona, a swing state for the presidential elections where a small margin could determine the outcome.

Both the candidates and their vice presidential running mates have campaigned aggressively in Arizona in the weeks leading up to the election. They have rallied, visited border towns and attacked various demographic groups.

Trump and Harris both visited metro Phoenix on Thursdaywhich shows how important the Grand Canyon State is in this election. The vice president’s visit was for an election event with the music group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in town to take part in a live show with Tucker Carlson.

Polls and odds have shown a change in momentum and how close the presidential race has become in recent months. But who has a better chance of winning the battle in Arizona and in the country, and could the ground game tip the balance?

Here’s what the polls, chances And historians we say as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

Who is at the top of the polls in the US?

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here’s where each candidate stood as of 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

ABC News Project 538 shows that Harris is in the lead in national polls at 48% compared to Trump’s 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as four percentage points, although more recent polls show them much closer.
270towing shows Harris leading national polls by 1.2% over Trump.
Realclear poll shows that the betting odds are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +0.3.

Who’s Leading the Polls in Arizona?

Trump has had a widening lead over Harris in most polls in Arizona in recent weeks, but surveys show the race is still incredibly close in this battleground state.

Here’s where each candidate stood at 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 2.3%.
270towing shows Trump leading the polls in Arizona by 1.8% over Harris.
Realclear poll shows that the betting odds to win Arizona are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +2.3.

Historian who predicted nine out of 10 elections weighs in

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He received his PhD from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the past ten presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction about which candidate will retake the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

How accurate have the election odds or polls been in the past presidential elections?

The betting favorite has alone lost twice since 1866according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The track record in elections is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different types of the population can often have higher margins of error.

According to Pew ResearchConfidence in public opinion polls has suffered from the mistakes in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In both general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.