Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

In the game of the week, No. 4 Ohio State is on the road in Happy Valley in a big matchup against No. 3 Penn State in college football’s Week 10 action on Saturday. Here’s what to look out for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

“Everything” may not be on the line here for Ohio State, but with one loss already in the books, its Big Ten and playoff hopes would take a serious hit with another loss on the road against a highly ranked opponent on the conference.

Penn State has more room to play, coming in as one of college football’s few remaining undefeated teams and working behind a strong new defense and home field advantage, while head coach James Franklin wants to finally win one with the Buckeyes, and really with every team in the top five. .

What can we expect when the Nittany Lions host the Buckeyes in this Big Ten matchup?

Here’s what to watch for when Ohio State and Penn State face off in this Week 10 college football rivalry matchup, with our updated prediction for what happens.

1. Fight on the line. All eyes are on the Buckeyes’ blind side after left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year with an injury, only to have his replacement, Zen Michalski, suffer his own problem.

The line was an issue in a close win against a Nebraska defense that allowed 56 points to Indiana the week before, resulting in a season-low offensive output for the Buckeyes, especially on the ground.

Now that unit goes up against a Penn State front seven that is among the most physical and aggressive in the country, with 46 negative plays, an average of two sacks per game and 93 rushing yards per game.

2. On the ground. Ohio State is No. 2 nationally in total defense and No. 6 against the run, allowing just 5 touchdowns and just 2.84 yards per carry against opponents, and now it faces Penn State’s dynamic duo in the backfield.

Kaytron Allen has 509 yards rushing this season and Nicholas Singleton had 493 more for an offense that ranks 28th in FBS with 5.13 yards per carry and 13 total touchdowns.

3. Watch for injuries. Drew Allar led the Big Ten in yards and touchdowns the past two years, but the quarterback’s 20-game starting streak is an open question after he was injured last week at Wisconsin. Signs are pointing toward his play, but any limitations on his part could derail Penn State’s offensive effort.

But even if he were to take the field, the Nittany Lions could still use backup Beau Pribula, who helped win last week’s game with a touchdown and is a credible threat in his own right and adds a dose of unpredictability that would be a real spark in the offense when things slow down.

Most analytical models give the Buckeyes an edge over the Nittany Lions in this case.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

How does that model foresee events in Happy Valley this weekend?

Ohio State came out on top in the majority 60.9 percent of the computer simulations for the game, while Penn State emerged as the presumptive winner in the other 39.1 percent from sims.

And when it comes to a margin of victory? Expect a close game, but one that covers the spread.

Ohio State is expected to be the same 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in the computer simulations, according to the model’s latest prediction.

Ohio State has been 28.4 points better then opponents are average so far this season, when you take into account the scoring margins in wins and losses.

Penn State has been 19 points better than the competition average in 2024.

However, in the past three games, those numbers have come much closer.

The state of Ohio is 10.3 points better than its opponents during that time, while Penn State is average 11.3 points better than the other team in that period.

Penn State has dominated domestically, with an average 23.3 points more than the competition when they play in the confines of Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State has been 16 points better on a rough average when playing games on the road, although those results are lopsided: Michigan State is beaten by 31 and lost to Oregon by 1.

The state of Ohio is one 3.5 points favorite against Penn State, per rules at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (over -105, under -115).

And it set up the moneyline odds for Ohio State -150 and for Penn State +125 to win outright.

This is starting to look a little too familiar for Penn State. Four times in the last seven years, the Nittany Lions were undefeated before the Buckeyes handed them that first crushing loss.

But while Happy Valley waits for James Franklin to turn into Jim Harbaugh and finally break that curse with a small winning streak, this matchup still suggests otherwise.

Penn State’s defensive performance is admirable, but consider the competition. It has yet to face an offense ranked in the top 30 nationally that has lined up against only one in the top 50 throwing the ball, and that was against a USC team that was leading at one point with two touchdowns before Tyler Warren almost single-handedly led that comeback.

And it hasn’t been against a defense of Ohio State’s caliber, not to mention the rotation of blue-chip skill players on offense that will stretch the Nittany Lions’ secondary early and often.

There is a clear skill gap between the kind of receiver speed the Buckeyes can put on the field, especially when combined with a 1-2 punch in the backfield that averages 5.44 yards per carry, with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, who provide the balancing things.

But expect this to be a game heading into the fourth quarter, as Penn State Buckeyes edge rushers crowd quarterback Will Howard into the pocket and force him into a few hurried throws before his guys can get open.

Howard has some strategic mobility that can help him extend his play when the pressure is on, but he doesn’t have the kind of speed that would allow him to easily outrun the Nittany Lions’ chasers on a consistent basis, especially with that blatant problem at left tackle. still to be solved.

That keeps the game close throughout, but eventually the dam breaks, and Ohio State not only has the bodies up front to force Allar — when he plays, and he has always fought under pressure — into some blunders of his own, but the speed to get to the top of this defense when it counts.

College Football HQ chooses…

More…Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction by expert model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 12:00 Eastern
TV: Fox Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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