Here's who's in charge of the 2024 presidential race between Trump and Harris in Nevada

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has a lead over former President Donald Trump in the last two surveys of likely voters in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris’ chances of carrying the state next week win.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally on September 29 in Las Vegas.

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Key facts

Harris is up one point, 48%-47%, in an Emerson poll of likely Nevada voters released Friday (margin of error 3.6 points), while Harris leads and Trump 51%-47% in a questionnaire of likely voters, released this week by the Cooperative Election Study, a huge series of national polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3% among likely voters according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult questionnaire released Wednesday (margin of error 5 points) — essentially a tie since the poll’s margin of error is five points.

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in Nevada, according to CNN/SSRS questionnaire released on Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points), and Harris trails Trump 47%-46% in a AARP Survey of likely voters was announced on October 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal The October 11 poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large lead of five points.

Harris has an average lead of 0.3 points in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted index poll average.

Nevada — the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden defeated Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Big number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% in 2024, according to a September 2016 report. NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Important background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, which include Hispanic and Latino people about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among key demographic groups. According to CNN, Biden carried Nevada voters 61% to 35% over Trump in 2020 exit pollswhile Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris has particular difficulty with Latino men, according to the survey, which found that 53% of male Latino voters ages 18 to 34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35 to 49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns for Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz. against Trump ally Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community locations frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

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