Another “favorable” storm is moving into Utah after drought intensity increased in October

SALT LAKE CITY – October was scorching by fall standards.

Several cities posted record or above-normal average temperatures and below-normal precipitation, increasing drought intensity in Utah heading into November. However, Utah is set to receive another round of relief this weekend from a low-pressure system currently over the Pacific Northwest.

A cold front ahead of the storm will arrive in Utah sometime late morning or early afternoon Saturday, bringing a rain shower, KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson said. Later in the day it will move through the Wasatch Front and other parts of the state, bringing a mix of valley rain and mountain snow.

“Rain showers from (northern to southern Utah)…really starting to fill in with a nice punch Saturday evening,” he said. “It’s sped up a little bit. The bulk of the rain will be Saturday night through Sunday morning.”

Rain and snow showers are expected to linger into Sunday, mainly affecting the eastern half of the state. Johnson said a few showers could remain along the Wasatch region during the morning and afternoon.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory saying Utah’s mountain ranges could get 4 to 10 inches of snow. Parts of the Cottonwood Canyons could receive a foot or more.

Johnson said elevations above 5,000 feet are likely to receive snow from the storm, especially by Sunday. Communities at higher elevations, such as Park City, could receive several inches of snow.

KSL weather models indicate the core of the storm — which is expected to impact central Utah — could produce about two-thirds of an inch in some valleys by Sunday evening. About a quarter or a third of an inch is possible along the Wasatch Front and northern Utah.

It’s slightly smaller than other storms in recent weeks, but could still provide Utah with much-needed precipitation after a warm and largely dry October.

“This would be nice if we can get this storm to perform the way it looks,” Johnson said. “It gives us really useful rainfall.”

Complete seven-day forecasts for areas in Utah can be found online at the KSL Weather Center.

Record heat stacks by drying conditions

Salt Lake City recorded a record average temperature of 62.4 degrees, nearly 8 degrees above normal and nearly 2 degrees above the previous October record for the past 150 years, according to National Weather Service data. It was boosted by a record 14 days of 80 degrees and it’s the first ever 90 degree October day since registration began in 1874.

A statewide report will be released next week, but in virtually every city with available public data, average temperatures were above normal — in many cases well above average.

The two major storms that hit the state in the second half of the month only cooled the situation somewhat. That also broke out dry spells carried over from the previous month, the state’s third-warmest and 14th-driest September since 1895.

Santaquin was a big winner in October, with 2.24 inches of precipitation, while Tooele, Price and Fillmore topped 1.5 inches. Provo fell just under 1.5 inches, putting it on the list of less-than-normal cities. Salt Lake City’s 0.81 inches fell nearly a half-inch below monthly normal levels, while Ogden, Logan and much of southwestern Utah also fell below normal levels.

The latter is a major reason why severe drought returned to Washington County on October 8. About half of the county is now in that category, with the rest still under moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The latest report shows that about a fifth of the state is in drought, about double the amount from the beginning of the month. Parts of the Western Desert and the Uinta Mountains are also experiencing moderate drought, while most of the rest of the state is considered “abnormally dry.”

The state’s reservoirs were still about 75% full in November, similar to last year and 20 percentage points above the median average for the month, according to data from the Utah Division of Water Resources.

The uncertainty of November

However, Utah could also see relief after this weekend.

Another storm is forecast to hit northern Utah on Election Day Tuesday, while the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center updated its November outlook Thursday to list Utah — and most of the West — as equal opportunity when it comes to temperatures and precipitation. That means there’s no clear signal as to whether this month will produce above-, below- or near-normal temperatures and precipitation.

The first November models trended towards warmer and drier conditions. Johnson said the shift signals that storm chances are improving in Utah ahead of the crucial meteorological winter, which plays a role in the state’s outlook. water delivery.

“This is really good news,” he said. “It’s good to see the scales continue to tilt towards a wetter and cooler pattern.”