Time to arm-twist: BC Greens should hold the legislature hostage

For now, the New Democratic Party of British Columbia is expected to govern the province with a minority in the legislature. Saturday’s election was as close as expected, with the incumbent NDP finishing the evening with 46 seats, one ahead of the BC Conservatives with 45. The BC Greens won two seats, which in context could actually be a big win for them.

To govern BC with a majority, 47 seats are needed. With mail-in ballots counted and two rides toldit’s still possible that conservatives could gain an advantage. But in the meantime, the NDP remains the government and is expected to continue doing so – albeit in a weaker position.

If the legislature remains a minority, the British Columbia Greens will determine who governs and will be well-positioned to extract political concessions.

As a condition of supporting the NDP, the Greens should insist on another kick at electoral reform, which they like she ran a campaign again in 2024. In their program, the Greens promised to introduce and adopt the reform in the legislature, and then hold a referendum on whether to maintain it After two elections were held under the new system.

Adopting a new electoral system may have, or could reasonably be perceived to have, partisan consequences, so parties should accept that the process of changing the system should be fair and robust, but not unduly burdensome. Greater public involvement will also have the benefit of increasing the legitimacy of any new system.

The Greens should envisage a referendum on the reform before choice of system, especially since they are the ones who are to gain the electorate from the change. In 2024, the Greens won two seats, winning eight percent of the vote, which is about four percent of all seats in the legislature. In the case of PR, their number would double with a similar result, and the public could start to see this party as a more viable option because they would not worry about “wasting” their vote by casting their ballot for a party with a low probability of winning a seat.

Moreover, because the NDP did not campaign on electoral reform this time, voters may rightly believe that the PR, or big change, came out of the blue. The Greens should decide to also hold a second referendum to confirm the system, as New Zealand did when it adopted proportional representation.

The Greens should also ask another citizens’ assembly to evaluate the systems and recommend them to voters. Nearly 20 years have passed since the last one, and it’s more than time for a refresh – one that will galvanize reformers and make reforms more relevant to the public.

They should also demand that the assembly and referendum be carefully designed and well-resourced for both nonpartisan public education and partisan activists who want to make the case for or against change. This is obvious, but to be clear, they should also insist on adopting the new system at 50 percent plus one threshold.

Perhaps this seems like a lot to ask. But that’s really not the case – not with the Greens controlling the future of the legislature. It’s time to twist your arms.

The process forming a government under these circumstances is difficult, often hectic and marked by intense horse-trading. A government that does poorly right now is unlikely to survive, and the NDP is certainly looking at ways to not only continue to govern, but also provide some stability.

It is very unlikely that the Greens will support the Conservatives, whose leader has expressed doubts whether fossil fuel emissions contribute to climate change. In 2017, when the province reinstated a similar legislature, the Greens considered teaming up with the now-defunct British Columbia Liberals, who were then in power. They didn’t do it. Instead they maintained NDP on supply and confidence agreement which included consultation measures between the two sides and a package of political initiatives.

In the agreement, the Greens obtained, among others: a referendum on proportional representation, electoral finance reform and a more aggressive climate policy than the NDP would be willing to propose.

Both the NDP and Greens campaigned for electoral reform in 2017, and in 2018 a referendum was held – and it was a mess. Poorly organized, underfunded and haphazard voting put proportional representation in opposition to the current first-past-the-post system, and voters chose the status quo of 61.3% to 38.7%. The referendum was chaired by David Eby, the man who is now Prime Minister – at least for now.

It was a disappointing moment for supporters of electoral reform who could have expected something better. In 2005, the province held a vote to amend its electoral laws to adopt a proportional single-vote transferable system after it was recommended by the Citizens’ Assembly. The Liberal government under Gordon Campbell arbitrarily set a 60% threshold for adoption, and the reformers achieved a timid result of 57.7% – a remarkable feat that should have been enough to change the province’s voting system.

On election night, Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau lost her race, even though it’s true staying as a leader. Combined with the distance between them and the Conservatives, this reality weakens the Greens’ bargaining power, but not fatally – and it should not mean that the third party in the legislature should allow itself to be pushed around. The Greens should recognize the leverage they have and make full use of it by pushing for structural changes so that the composition of the legislature proportionally reflects the will of the voters.