How Israel is preparing for a long regional war

According to a recent report by economics newspaper The Marker, the Israeli government has asked the Nagel Commission, established just a few months ago to advise on the country’s defense budget, to submit quick proposals to facilitate the approval of large arms deals.

This comes after retired General Yossi Kuperwasser, who was previously head of research at Israel’s military intelligence department, highlighted the scale of the challenges facing the country’s army.

In an article in the Israel Hayom newspaper, he noted that Tel Aviv’s strategy is based on “weakening the Iranian axis and eliminating the threat from the north to allow the northerners to return safely to their homes, releasing the hostages and removing the threat from Gaza to the state of Israel.”

All this implies a long-term war that will require increased military capabilities.

Estimates by Israel’s central bank indicate that the costs of escalating the war with Lebanon, and potentially also with Iran, will be significant, which is partly reflected in Israel’s increased military spending for 2024 and 2025.

While Israel’s war budget has not been released in detail (the central bank releases numbers but not a detailed budget), new central bank projections give an indication that current spending will increase by about 30 billion shekels ($8 billion) this year. per year, and this number mainly includes military equipment, ammunition and the remuneration of reservists for days of service.

This is a modest amount compared to the overall projected costs of Israel’s plans to strengthen its military capabilities, overseen by the Nagel Commission, headed by former national security adviser and retired general Jacob Nagel.

While details of the commission’s recommendations will remain confidential, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government wants the body to facilitate the urgent acquisition of advanced weapons systems.

Huge expenses

The central bank’s estimates are based on the assumption that Israel’s wars in the Middle East will be prolonged and last until at least the first quarter of 2025. Even before the escalation in Lebanon and Iran, the bank had already stated that the country’s military spending had exceeded all expectations.

This prompted the central bank to raise its forecast for the fiscal deficit in Israel’s 2024 budget by 0.6 percent, bringing the total to 7.2 percent. gross domestic product. Israel’s updated military spending this year is 130 billion shekels ($35 billion), while the cost of permanently displacing residents from border areas has increased from three billion shekels to five billion shekels.

In addition, compensation for damaged property since October 7, 2023 has reached 1.5 billion shekels ($404 million).

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Reports suggest that a significant increase in state revenues from local taxes could alleviate some of the burden of military spending on the general budget. And none of this takes into account future U.S. financial aid.

Meanwhile, as the deficit grows, Israel’s Ministry of Finance indicates in its multi-year plan that the defense minister has been allocated an additional budget of 83 billion ($22 billion) shekels for 2023 and 2024. Of this, 16 billion shekels have so far been used mainly for additional aid US military.

The interim report of the Nagel Commission (the final report will be published by December) aims to establish policy within the current budgetary framework to optimize the use of existing equipment and ammunition, while enabling the conclusion of weapons purchase contracts.

The war on Israel’s northern front is just part of a U.S.-backed regional plan to dismantle the resistance axis and undermine the “unity of fronts” strategy.

Her proposed plan to develop Israel’s military capabilities, which will be long-term and stretched over several years, is expected to include at least an annual spending increase of 30 billion shekels ($8 billion) through 2028, with the possibility of extension. However, many financial forecasts indicate that an annual spending increase of 55 billion shekels ($14.5 billion) is more likely.

In short, it is clear that Israel is moving towards a profound change in the structure of its army, based on long-term wars consistent with its regional ambitions. As media reports indicate, the emphasis will be on both land and naval forces, with long-range regional combat taking priority.

The war on Israel’s northern front is just one part of its U.S.-backed regional plan to dismantle the resistance axis and undermine its “unity fronts” strategy. Israel’s main target is Iran in order to weaken the regime in Tehran and neutralize its nuclear and missile programs.

The war in the Gaza Strip is expected to continue for a long time and potentially develop into a permanent occupation based on ethnic cleansing in the northern part of the territory. Despite the strength of Israel’s economy and reserve assets, Tel Aviv is increasingly dependent on U.S. support for military, financial and diplomatic issues.

Any regional war that Israel fights will therefore become an American war, as Tel Aviv continues to deny the Palestinian cause in an attempt to end it permanently.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.