North Korean troops are deployed in Russia: what is the military effect?

In contrast to its limited military presence overseas, North Korea has a large civilian worker presence. Tens of thousands of North Korean citizens work abroad Russian construction sites, Chinese factories and restaurants, and hospitals about Africa. This generates significant foreign exchangemost of which goes to the state.

Question 4: How many North Korean troops are involved?

A4: The White House confirmed on October 23, approximately 3,000 North Korean troops arrived in Russia between early and mid-October. South Korean officials assessed that they were given Russian uniforms and IDs and trained in operating drones and other equipment. North Korea reportedly plans to deploy a total of four brigades, or between 10,000 and 12,000 troops, to Russia by December 2024, and may send additional units next year. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cites a Russian intelligence report with similarly high figures.

Many of these soldiers are reportedly part of the XI Corps – or “Storm Corps‘- an army special forces unit trained in infiltration, infrastructure sabotage and assassination. The force can trace its history to the unit that carried out the 1968 Blue House attack and unsuccessfully attempted to assassinate South Korean President Park Chung-hee.

The South Korean Ministry of Defense sets North Korea’s special forces number 200,000, so North Korea will retain most of its personnel even after the expected deployment.

Question 5: How good are these troops?

A5: The effectiveness of the North Korean military as a whole is questionable. Although numerous and ideologically prepared, equipment is largely outdated and preparedness is poor due to fuel shortages. Troops are often diverted to help with the civilian economy. Defectors report that deliveries to special operations forces are “not going smoothly” due to poor economic conditions. Conventional forces train for homeland defense and do not have the capabilities for external deployment. Instead, North Korea has focused on it nuclear weapons and missiles and has thus established itself as an important regional presence.

ISW reports that the Russians are training North Koreans at bases, mainly in eastern Russia. Nevertheless, if these are special operations forces, they will be much better prepared than the average North Korean unit. Further, based on what other militaries are doing, these deployed forces will be well trained and equipped because they have an immediate “real world” mission and not an “on-call” mission. Normally, units deployed for deployment undergo a special training program to prepare them and are fully equipped, even if other units need to be stripped. Whatever the case, the North Koreans will arrive trained and organized, without long preparation.

Question 6: What will these North Korean troops do?

A6: Neither Russia nor North Korea has announced what the role of these forces will be. Some have speculated that the troops might engage in the deep reconnaissance and direct action for which they were trained (if they were indeed from North Korean special forces). However, having these troops fight on the front lines would be a risky strategy. It would make North Korea a direct combatant in the war, something that would be very difficult diplomatically. Furthermore, there is a risk of desertion and prisoners. Both would embarrass North Korea because of what these forces might say. The high number of victims is unlikely to be a concern for North Korea, given the country’s control over state media.

Instead, the troops could perform support activities such as transportation and maintenance. Russian logistics are notoriously poor, and additional personnel could help. Combat support roles such as drone operations are possible. North Korean special operations forces could train Russian special forces and replacements. In any role, replacing North Koreans would free up Russian personnel for front-line service.

Question 7: How much military impact will this North Korean deployment have?

A7: This is more than symbolism. These troops will assist the Russian war effort by fulfilling necessary military functions and alleviating manpower shortages. However, their presence at the levels reported in the US will not be decisive. Russia has one estimated half a million troops in Ukraine. Three thousand North Korean troops would represent an increase of less than 1 percent.

Question 8: What should observers pay attention to?

A8: The two big questions are how many troops North Korea will send and what role they will take on. If numbers are limited and roles are limited to support and logistics, this will be useful for Russia, but not decisive. However, if the roles change or the numbers increase significantly, as the South Koreans believe, this could have a major effect on the course of the war. That will become clearer in the coming weeks.

Mark Cancian (Colonel, US Marine Corps Reserve, Ret.) is a Senior Advisor in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. Chris H. Park is a research assistant and program coordinator for the Arleigh A. Burke Chair at CSIS.