What would North Korean troops in Russia mean for the war in Ukraine?

By SAMYA KULLAB

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — U.S. and South Korean officials said Wednesday there are indications North Korea has sent troops to Russia in a possible escalation of the nearly three-year-old war with Ukraine.

If the soldiers’ goal is to fight Russia in Ukraine, it would be the first time a third country has set foot in the war. Other countries on both sides of the divide have sent military aid, including weapons and training: Iran has supplied Russia with dronesand western countries have done so too provided Ukraine with modern weapons and financial and humanitarian assistance.

The South Korean spy chief told lawmakers there were 3,000 North Korean troops were trained in the use of equipment, including drones, before being sent to fight in Ukraine. United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters during a visit to Rome that “we see evidence that there are North Korean troops” who have gone to Russia.

“Exactly what they do remains to be seen,” Austin said. Neither Austin nor Cho Tae-yong, director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, provided details on how they knew about North Korean forces, and many questions remain about the impact of North Korean participation.

What do we know about North Korean forces?

North Korean troops arrived in Russia’s Kursk region on Wednesday to help Russian troops fight a Ukrainian border incursion, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, told online military news channel The War Zone on Tuesday.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters North Korean officers and technical personnel were spotted in Russian-occupied areas on Monday. He did not specify when.

“I believe they first sent officers to assess the situation before deploying troops,” Zelenskyy said. He has warned that the participation of a third country could escalate the conflict into a world war. Austin said it would be a “very, very serious issue” if Pyongyang did indeed enter the war on Russia’s side.

What is Ukraine doing?

Ukraine is preparing as if the fight against North Korea on its territory is inevitable.

A injection of 10,000 North Korean troopswhich both Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence have claimed, “could significantly destabilize Ukrainian defenses there and greatly accelerate the advance of Russian forces,” said Glib Voloskyi, an analyst at a Ukrainian think tank, Come Back Alive Initiatives Center .

Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project, a hotline encouraging Russian soldiers to surrender, published a video in Korean on Wednesday calling on North Korean soldiers to give up.

“We call on the soldiers of the Korean People’s Army, who were sent to help the Putin regime. You shouldn’t die pointlessly on someone else’s land. There is no need to repeat the fate of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who will never return home!”

How does the West respond?

Zelenskyy told reporters on Monday that the European Union and the US have been cautious in publicly addressing North Korean forces fighting alongside Russia. They describe their reactions as ‘very reserved’.

German and British officials also joined in, with South Korea hinting that it could support Ukraine with military weapons in the event of confirmed North Korean involvement.

“We don’t even know whether we are talking about 1,500 or 12,000, or what kind of soldiers are coming to Russia to fight where and against,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. “It’s a kind of escalation and it shows us a very important, very important aspect. International conflicts are approaching very quickly.”

British Defense Secretary John Healey said there is “not just concern about the possibility of an escalation of the conflict in Europe. There is also an inextricable link with the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.”

Why does Russia need North Korea?

North Korea and Russia, both in separate confrontations with the West, have deepened their military cooperation over the past two years. They have in June signed a defense agreement where both countries must provide military assistance if the other is attacked.

For analysts, the introduction of troops would be a sign that the The war is not going as Russia planned.

“I think Ukraine is exhausting the Russian army as we talk. You don’t get thousands of soldiers from North Korea if your war goes well,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who runs Sibylline, a strategic consultancy. “You don’t need them.”

North Korea has sent more than 13,000 containers of artillery, missiles and other conventional weapons to Russia since August 2023 to replenish its dwindling weapons stockpiles. These missiles are actively being used against Ukrainian targets, officials in Kiev say.

Associated Press reporters Hanna Arhirova and Illia Novikov contributed. Danica Kirka contributed from London.

Originally published: October 25, 2024 at 2:47 PM