Georgia's jailed ex-president says Putin's Russia is not ready for another 'hot' war

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(LONDON) – Saturday’s parliamentary elections in Georgia have been hailed by all parties as an era-defining moment for the country’s 3.8 million people.

For one of the country’s most famous men, the election results could mean the difference between imprisonment and freedom.

Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, 56, has been jailed since 2021 on charges of abusing power and organizing an attack on an opposition lawmaker – charges he says are politically motivated.

“My imprisonment is purely political and everyone knows it,” Saakashvili told ABC News in an interview conducted through intermediaries from his prison cell. “As soon as politics changes, it will be over.”

Saturday’s elections will pit the Moscow-leaning Georgian Dream government against several pro-Western opposition parties, including the United National Movement party, founded by Saakashvili in 2001.

One of the UNM’s priorities, if it comes to power as part of a pro-Western coalition, will be the liberation of Saakashvili.

The campaign is fraught with accusations of interference and political violence on behalf of GD. The opposition hopes to mobilize a historic turnout to defeat the GD’s attempts to undermine the struggle.

“The only recipe to tackle election interference is to erect a wall of mass turnout at the polls,” Saakashvili said.

People power has proven to be a serious problem for GD in recent years. Massive protests thwarted the government’s first attempt to introduce a foreign agent registration law in 2023 – which critics said was modeled on Russian legislation used to criminalize Western-oriented politicians, activists and academics.

The government reintroduced the legislation in 2024, despite renewed and intense demonstrations.

Opponents consider GD founder, former prime minister and Georgia’s richest man – Bidzina Ivanishvili – as the mastermind behind what they say is the government’s authoritarian and pro-Moscow pivot, although the billionaire holds no official position.

Saakashvili said Ivanishvili – who made his fortune in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union – and the GD party will “go as far as necessary” to retain power this weekend, “but the question will be once they lose the elections if the government structures follow the orders of the oligarch,” he added, referring to Ivanishvili.

Ivanishvili and his party see the vote as a choice between war and peace. A new Western-led government, they say, will put Tbilisi back on the path to conflict with Russia, reviving the bloodshed of the 2008 war in which Moscow strengthened its occupation of 20% of Georgian territory is blown in.

“It’s straight out of the Russian playbook,” Saakashvili said of the GD’s warnings. “Blaming victims for aggression towards them. As far as we are concerned, real security and peace are associated with being part of the Euro-Atlantic structures, and membership of the European Union is within reach.’ Georgia was granted the status of an EU candidate country in 2023.

The latest polls show that the GD will become the largest party, but will lag significantly behind a parliamentary majority. However, a grand alliance of pro-EU and pro-NATO opposition parties could get past the 50% threshold to form a new governing coalition.

“Opinion polls are very treacherous in authoritarian systems,” Saakashvili said. “The recent example of Moldova shows that polls are jeopardized by mass vote buying, and this will certainly be the case in Georgia.”

“On the other hand, those who tell pollsters that they are voting for the government are very often not telling the truth,” he added.

Saakashvili’s imprisonment in 2021 marked the low point of a two-decade political rollercoaster. Saakashvili went from being the beloved leader of Georgia’s pro-Western Rose Revolution in 2003 to being defeated by President Vladimir Putin’s Russian military machine in 2008.

In 2011, Saakashvili’s own government was accused of violently suppressing protests, with the president soon also embroiled in human rights and corruption scandals.

Constitutionally barred from serving three consecutive terms, Saakashvili left Georgia after the 2013 presidential election and was convicted in absentia in 2018 on abuse of power and other charges.

A Ukrainian citizen – his citizenship was revoked by President Petro Poroshenko in 2017 before being reinstated by President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 – Saakashvili served as governor of the Odessa region from 2015 to 2016. Zelensky appointed Saakashvili head of the executive committee of the National Council for Reforms in 2020.

Saakashvili returned to Georgia in October 2021 as the country prepared for local elections. He was arrested and detained by the police.

His domestic and international allies have repeatedly condemned his imprisonment and expressed concern about his poor treatment and resulting ill health. US and European Union officials have also urged Tbilisi to do more to ensure Saakashvili’s fair treatment.

He has been hospitalized in prison — once on a hunger strike — and his lackluster performance at a 2023 videoconference hearing prompted Zelenskyy to summon Georgia’s ambassador to Kiev to complain.

Saakashvili broadly blames Putin for his current situation. But he believes Moscow is not necessarily in a position to prevent a pro-Western turn in Tbilisi.

“In 2008, the war took place after the West showed a clear sign of weakness by denying Georgia and Ukraine accession to NATO,” Saakashvili said.

“If there is no hesitation this time, Russia will be so trapped in Ukraine that it will have no motivation to create a new hot war elsewhere.”

“We have no other choice,” he replied when asked about the risks of disrupting the Kremlin. “The only other alternative is to go back,” he said, “to live in the Russian sphere of influence.”

As for his own plans if he is indeed released, Saakashvili described himself as “a regional and not a purely Georgian leader.”

“I will provide advice to any subsequent non-oligarchic government in the transition,” he added, but said he will not seek an official position of power.

“And of course I have Ukrainian nationality and it is my duty to support Ukraine.”