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Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders: Who Wins and Why

Posted on by Larry
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders: Who Wins and Why

There has always been one place to go in this country when you think of subterfuge, camouflage, clandestine operations and the general lack of transparency.

The Bears are going to play there on Sunday and that is of course Washington DC

Dan Quinn and the Commanders keep the tradition alive by hiding whether quarterback Jayden Daniels will play while knowing full well whether or not he will.

Matt Eberflus says it doesn’t matter to them if it’s Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota they face, and in years past this would have been true because they would have struggled to beat any team regardless of quarterback .

It matters now, though, because the Bears are actually off to a strong start, have their own passer who functions like a quarterback should and the rest of the NFC North seems to be falling apart around them. Now it’s elite Minnesota tackle Christian Darrisaw lost before the season after losing Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. The Bears could even make something of this season if they land rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

Whether the Bears face Mariota or Daniels matters and the smart money is on Mariota. Daniels never completed a full workout this week and only had one partial workout, as stated in the injury report. The injury report doesn’t lie. The coaches do.

Daniels always walks around with a smile on his face. He has difficulty reading, so there’s a chance he’ll make a triumphant return.

The best way for the Bears to go 5-2 and keep pace with the Packers and Lions, while even beating the collapsing Minnesota Vikings, is for Williams and the offense to get whoever plays the Commanders’ quarterbacks, to make it irrelevant. Both Tampa Bay and the Baltimore Ravens did this.

They’ve simply put up so many points that Washington can’t answer, no matter who the quarterback is.

It’s the Bears and Commanders in the nation’s capital, Sunday at 3:25 p.m. Here’s who wins and why.

Bears passing vs. commanders passing defense

Baker Mayfield threw for 280 yards and Lamar Jackson for 308 yards against the Commanders, while Joe Burrow hit them with 312 yards. There is a capable pass defense in the form of edge rushers Dante Fowler and Dorance Armstrong, but neither has ever been labeled as a true pass rushing force in the NFL. The secondary has holes and is prone to big gains. The reason the Commanders defense didn’t look like it did last year when the Bears played them is because Dan Quinn is a defensive guru and his scheme keeps everything in place, but that only goes so far. His blitzing has been crucial, but Caleb Williams has done one thing very well: see the blitz coming and then put the ball where it should be to burn it. Washington ranks 30th among NFL pass defenses in QB passer rating and they face too many threats to defend in an offense that is just starting to blossom. Edge for the bears

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Bears run versus commanders run defense

Washington’s overall rating against the run isn’t terrible and masks a truth about how they performed. Only the clueless Carolina Panthers have failed to reach 100 yards while running against them on the ground. The Bengals ran for only 124 as they found it too easy to gain yards in the air. The same was true for the Buccaneers, who had 112. Arizona and Baltimore, with the threat of mobile QBs, had huge rush days. Washington gives up over 4.0 yards per carry on all rushes between the tackles. It’s making a choice and running towards it. D’Andre Swift likes to go outside, and that’s where things could be tougher, but losing Daron Payne undermined the run defense that Washington has and the Bears should be able to move that with Swift or Roschon Johnson against a run defense who is too dependent on 34- -year-old linebacker Bobby Wagner. Edge for the bears

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Commanders run versus bears run defense

The real threat in this game to the Bears’ defense can be found here, as it is easy to get out of their holes against Brian Robinson Jr. if one of the quarterbacks is able to pull the ball back and also run. And Robinson is the kind of speed/strength defender who can do damage when the gap widens. Baltimore’s top-ranked defense defeated the Commanders by holding them to 52 yards and forcing Daniels to beat them through the air. It’s the safest way to play defense against any team. The Bears’ last game started playing that way again with run defense, as they did for much of last year. They held the Jaguars’ double-edged offense to 68 yards. They come out to stop the flight again. No border.

Commanders passing versus bears passing defense

For all the excitement Daniels has generated, he still ranks just 22nd in touchdown passes and they mostly do that on short downfield passes at YAC. According to NextGen Stats, Daniels’ average number of planned air yards is behind 23 other passers. That’s why his completion percentage is so high. A defense that tackles hard and gathers to the ball outside the zone should be able to combat this. And this perfectly describes the Bears’ coverage concept. Jaylon Johnson, Tremaine Edmunds and the Bears’ defense rank No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating versus defense. They can be very disruptive and also normally maintain discipline during the pass rush in a way to discourage scramblers, as the 58 yards allowed scramble says this year. In fact, they may even do this to such an extent that they don’t get as many sacks as they should. But they get enough pressure. An interesting point in this game is that a team that rarely turns it over, the Commanders (3 turnovers), faces a team that thrives on takeaways. The only uncertainty here is the two injuries to Bears starters in the secondary, but this didn’t hurt in their last game. Depth is something they have. No border.

Special teams

Austin Ekeler has an average of 32 yards per eight kick returns and is ideal for the new kick return rule because he is a running back who plays well in space. However, kickoffs don’t seem to mean much when everyone is forced to take touchbacks. Washington’s Olamide Zaccheaus was a threat as a punter, but his 16.3-yard average is based on just six returns. Tory Taylor’s hangtime could cause problems for returners. The Bears are in trouble here if they ask him to step back because they don’t have good enough coverage. Tress Way’s punt average is lower than in other years (45.8) and he has four in the 20. Taylor averages 3 more yards per kick than Way and has six more in the 20. Austin Seibert is more accurate this year than Cairo Santos at 19 for 20 on field goals, but he was only allowed to attempt two from 50 yards or longer. No border.

Coaching

Matt Eberflus coaches 2-1 as a coordinator or head coach against teams with Kliff Kingsbury as head coach or offensive coordinator, or with Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator or head coach. The loss was to the Cowboys with Quinn as defensive coordinator in 2022, but they still scored 29 points. They just couldn’t stop Dallas’ offense. Kingsbury and Quinn have made more difference to Washington’s turnaround than any other factor, including their QB, whoever that is. No border.

Final score: bears 26, commanders 20

No one has scored more than 21 points on the Bears defense in the last twelve games. The Bears are posting a passer rating of 72.8. The Commanders defense has a passer rating of 107.4. Caleb Williams will face a much lesser challenge than Daniels. Or Mariota.

The line: carries by 2 1/2 (over/under 43 1/2)

Bears on SI record in bear games: 6-0 straight, 5-1 against the spread.

-The odds are refreshed periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI