Harris is counting on highly educated voters

College-educated voters have increasingly moved toward the Democratic Party in recent election cycles. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee in the third consecutive election, has gained support among black men, Latinos and non-college-educated voters.

But Democratic strategists say Americans with college degrees who vote and donate at high rates could help Harris win the presidency.

“They are incredibly reliable voters,” said Harris campaign pollster Molly Murphy, who added that Harris’ warnings about Trump particularly appeal to this group. “These messages – warning of the dangers of Trump’s second term when it comes to our national security, and even our internal security, arming the military against American citizens – are things that resonate with college-educated voters – but they are not just those messages voters.”

Polls show Harris and Trump in a static, deadlocked race with just ten days to go until Election Day. The candidates are competing for a small share of undecided voters in seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — where polls show the two are statistically tied.

Part of the Harris campaign’s strategy in the latter part of the election is to increase turnout among college-educated women, who have proven to be a key Democratic voter base in the last few elections — especially in the 2022 midterms, when the Democrats performed above expectations. But the campaign is also convinced that a small proportion of university-educated men can still be convinced. Murphy said polls show the dangers of a Trump presidency remain one of that group’s top concerns. They are less likely to be affiliated with a single political party and to become involved late in the political process.

Harris, who has run a historically compressed campaign since replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic party less than four months ago, spent her first weeks talking about pocketbook issues and abortion and focused on introducing herself to voters who knew little . about her.

But her pivot in the final weeks of the campaign, spending most of her time warning that Trump is unhinged and unfit for the presidency, is informed by internal polling showing such messaging could help turnout among undecided voters increase, especially those with a university degree. As part of that effort, she has spotlighted former Trump officials, including his former chief of staff John F. Kelly, and warned them about the dangers he poses to the nation. Murphy said the campaign’s focus on Trump is also notable among other voter groups, including voters without a college degree, but that those groups also care about the economy, health care and other issues.

In national polls, Harris leads by 19 percentage points among college graduates, slightly more than President Joe Biden’s 17-point margin in exit polls and similar sources in 2020. Among non-college-educated voters, Trump leads by nine points — slightly more than his margin of five points in 2020.

Some Democrats are concerned about Harris’ numbers among other key voter groups that helped propel Barack Obama and Biden to the Oval Office. Harris has a 24-point lead among non-white voters, much smaller than Biden’s 47-point lead in 2020. Polls breaking down Black and Hispanic voters show Harris leading by an average of 59 points, while Biden leads the group with 81 wins points. points in post-election sources. And Harris has a slim five-point lead among Hispanic voters, compared to Biden’s 29-point lead.

In 2020, college graduates made up 35 percent of voting-age citizens, but 40 percent of registered voters and 42 percent of voters in the general election, according to the Census Bureau’s turnout survey. Education is also one of the strongest predictors of turnout, with college graduates voting far more likely than those with a high school diploma or less.

Democrats’ growing power among college-educated voters, who generally have higher incomes than those without a college degree, also means Democrats can raise more money in races up and down the ballot, strategists said.

“The migration of higher-educated, higher-income voters into the Democratic Party will not only be highly significant in terms of voters in battleground states. Their money helps boost all of our campaigns across the country,” said Simon Rosenberg, a leading member of the Democratic Party. “This is one of the most consequential things that has happened in American politics in recent years, because Democrats are not used to living in a world where we dramatically outnumber Republicans.”

Harris will deliver what she considers her closing argument to the American people on Tuesday in a speech from the Ellipse in Washington, the site where Trump spoke just before the January 6 riot. The Harris event, which the campaign hopes will do more to break the news cycle than a visit to another battleground state, is also intended to appeal to the fears college voters and others harbor about a second Trump term, they said campaign officials.

On January 6, 2021, Trump held a rally at the Ellipse, where he urged his supporters to march to the U.S. Capitol as Congress finalized the results of the presidential election. In his speech, Trump told the crowd to “fight” for him and “make your voices heard in a peaceful and patriotic manner.” A mob later stormed the building, delaying the work of Congress. More than 1,400 people have been federally charged in connection with the attack.

Harris’ speech will focus on more than Trump, according to a campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity to preview comments that have not yet been finalized. The Vice President will also have one contrast between what her first term as president could look like and what the former president’s second term could bring. She plans to position himself as a defender of national security and as president for all Americans and argue That Trump poses a unique danger to the country.

In recent weeks, Harris has held campaign events in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-Wisconsin). Cheney, who has endorsed the vice president — the first time, she said, she has endorsed a Democrat — and has worked to convince other Republicans to cross party lines and vote for Harris.

“What we’re seeing is a seismic shift for Republicans – college-educated voters, especially white voters with college degrees, have been reliable for Republicans for decades, but now they’re turning away from Trump and his toxicity,” said Jim Messina , which led Obama’s 2012 campaign, a statement said. “These are not ordinary voters; these are people who show up at every election, and the numbers tell the story.”

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Scott Clement contributed to this report.