All you need is Jordan Love

The Milly Maker is a GPP (guaranteed prize pool) with a large field, and it usually takes a highly correlated lineup to win that type of tournament.

Week 7 was no different, as theHman used three decks to secure first place and the million dollar grand prize. His primary stack included players from the Lions-Vikings matchup – Sam Darnold (17.26 DraftKings points), Justin Jefferson (21.4), Jahmyr Gibbs (35) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (28.2) – one of the three games on the main roster. with an upper/lower above 50.

Both Gibbs and St. Brown had their best fantasy performances of the season.

Pairing the Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt (22.3) with Mecole Hardman (12.5) provided some leverage, as Hardman was only used in 0.9% of tournament lineups.

The stroke of genius was pairing two Browns pass catchers with the defense they faced, a truly outside-the-box choice. There was a target vacuum in Cleveland after Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo, so tight ends David Njoku (23.6) and Elijah Moore (10.1) helped fill the void, thanks in large part to PPR volume. Njoku and Moore combined for 16 receptions.

The Bengals finished with four sacks, two interceptions and scored a defensive touchdown. Pairing them with reception-dependent opponents who might have trouble hitting paydirt created a unique construct.

Last week The Lineup was also very highly correlated, but I focused mainly on those three potentially high-scoring things.

I included both Jefferson and Gibbs, but I also opted for a Geno Smith (17.78)-DK Metcalf (19.9)-Drake London (18.3) double-stack from the Seahawks-Falcons matchup.

Expecting the Commanders-Panthers to be a blowout (they were), I stacked Brian Robinson Jr. (13.1) with Jalen Coker, a punt option that only gave me two points.

I was more conventional than the Hman, pairing the Giants defense (4) with Eagles tight end Grant Calcaterra (1.5), and both disappointed.

I clearly had the right idea and still cashed ($20 on a $10 entry) during a low-scoring week, but in retrospect I could have been a bit more imaginative.

Correlation gives you a better chance of getting a really high score.

For fantasy purposes, it is important to remember the two most common types of correlation: positive and negative.

Positive correlation is when two variables move together, such as a wide receiver and his quarterback.

Negative correlation is when one variable increases while the other variable decreases, or vice versa, like how my wife’s mood is negatively correlated when I spend an hour convincing her. The Empire Strikes Back is the best movie of all time after she asks me where we should go to dinner.

The preamble

Coming up with the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here every week to help.

At DraftKings, it’s important to remember that you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses when a player exceeds 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.75 Million Fantasy Football Millionaire game, but it can be used as a base in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are from DraftKings with a budget of $50,000.

The Optimal Lineup has grossed $137.86 this season, so I’m in the black at $22.86 with an average score of 131.79 points over seven weeks.

Year to date results

Week 1: 90.16

Week 2: 144.38

Week 3: 100.38

Week 4: 180.78

Week 5: 147.14

Week 6: 126.72

Week 7: 132.98

Week 8 Setup

QB: Jordan Love, Packers ($7,100)

Only the Lions (28.5) have a higher expected score than Green Bay (27) on the main roster. Love has been responsible for 41 TDs (39 passing, two rushing) in his last 17 games, including 13 TD passes in four games since returning from injury. The Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and can do enough offensively to keep the Packers aggressive.

RB: De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($6,200)

While I’m not using Tua Tagovailoa in this lineup, I’m benefiting from his return to a once dynamic offense with the two players who should benefit the most. Achane had seven receptions for 76 yards in Week 1, Tua’s only complete game this season, and he is coming off his most efficient game on the ground this year, with 77 yards on 5.1 yards per carry against the Colts last week. According to Fantasy Pros, the Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per play, fifth-highest rushing success rate, and 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

RB: Javonte Williams, Broncos ($6,000)

Williams is averaging 15.5 touches in Denver’s four wins this season, and the Broncos are 11 points ahead of the Panthers. He also ranks third in overall targets (29) for running backs, behind only Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara (both have 43). Carolina gives up the most fantasy points to running backs through seven weeks, so this is a great opportunity for Williams.

WR: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($7,000)

The second part of my “Welcome back, Tua!” Stack, Hill is about $1,500 cheaper than he should be with his franchise QB back under center. The “Cheetah” had 29 DraftKings points in his only full game with Tagovailoa this season and put up 25 points in nine of 16 games last season. Hill appeared on the injury report Thursday with a foot injury (usually not a good thing), so keep an eye on his situation. Rotate to Davante Adams ($7,100) if Hill is a late scratch, or to Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) and strengthen another position with the savings.

WR: Jayden Reed, Packers ($6,700)

Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur uses Reed the same way Kyle Shanahan uses Deebo Samuel, to create space on offense, meaning Reed will act as a decoy at times, but not against a defense like the Jaguars, who have the fourth allow place. fantasy points to wide receivers.

WR: Cedric Tillman, Browns ($3,300)

I talked last week about how Tillman could become Week 7’s Sean Tucker, with everyone expecting Njoku and Jerry Jeudy to absorb Cooper’s targets after the trade. He finished with eight receptions for 81 yards on 12 targets and a two-point conversion against the Bengals. I imagine Tillman will remain busy with Jameis Winston taking over the offense for the Ravens, who allow the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

TE: Brock Bowers, Raiders ($6,100)

Happy National Tight End Day to those who celebrate it. Bowers runs away with the goal lead in position (60). The Cardinals’ Trey McBride is second with 45. The 13th overall pick is also second in the NFL with 47 receptions, trailing only Chris Godwin (50), who will miss the remainder of this season due to an ankle injury. Bowers has just one TD, but he faces a Chiefs defense that gives most of his fantasy points to tight ends.

FLEX: Sterling Shepard, Buccaneers ($3,800)

After Mike Evans aggravated his hamstring injury, Trey Palmer ($3,500) took over as an outside receiver on every down. Jalen McMillan ($3,700) was the No. 3 WR for Tampa Bay this season when healthy, so the third-rounder in this year’s draft likely sees a big bump in value and opportunity, but it’s the veteran Shepard – the former college teammate of Baker Mayfield – likely to see a lot of run in the slot, and get to Godwin’s vacated targets first.

Daylight Savings Time: Denver Broncos ($3,700)

The Broncos have scored double-digit fantasy points in five of seven games and rank second in the NFL in sacks (28). Harder to imagine a better situation than facing the Panthers and Bryce Young at Mile High without their two top receivers.