Experts predict the Supreme Court will likely stay out of the 2024 presidential election

Election lawyers and experts say the U.S. Supreme Court is unlikely to hear an election case after Nov. 5, let alone cast the deciding vote.

“It has to be super, super close,” Jason Torchinsky, partner at Holtzman Vogel, told Fox News Digital. “If you look at the history of post-election lawsuits, the only places where they have been successful in determining outcomes are in places where the vote is very close.”

“If there’s a real issue, the Court will address it. If it’s something that the Court doesn’t think deserves a higher level position, then they will summarily affirm it,” Torchinsky said.

Congress changed the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 (ECRA), which expedites potential lawsuits and specifies that the vice president’s role during the joint session is “ministerial in nature.”

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The statute says: “any action brought by an aggrieved candidate for President or Vice President” will be heard by a district court with a three-judge panel. It is then “the duty of the court to proceed with the docket and expedite the disposition of the action as much as possible.”

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Parties can then directly request a review of the decision by the US Supreme Court on an accelerated basis.

“It kind of creates a new route to federal court for a specifically limited number of issues raised under the Electoral Count Act,” said Greg Teufle, founder of OGC Law. “However, there are very limited issues that can be raised under that law. So it is not a broad expansion or increase in the likelihood of litigation, either in federal courts or in lawsuits that reach the U.S. Supreme Court, under the Electoral Reform Act.”

Teufle noted that before an election case would be heard by the Court, “there would have to be significant and demonstrable allegations of fraud or other serious violations of law in the manner in which elections are conducted or votes are processed.”

Republicans and Democrats Simultaneously, they have launched a series of election-related lawsuits in the run-up to Nov. 5, including a recent case in Georgia that found county election officials must certify results within the legal deadline despite suspicions of fraud or error.

Joseph Burns, partner at Holtzman Vogel, noticed this Republicans can prove that successful in election disputes based on the composition of the Court.

“In terms of the composition of the court, there is no question that you have appointed six Republican justices at this point,” Burns said. “And these are generally people who, I think, are going to interpret what needs to be interpreted, whether it’s a state statute or a federal statute. Their general philosophy is to adhere as closely as possible to the words of the statute.”

“In that regard, you have a more conservative-leaning Supreme Court,” Burns continued. “And you certainly have Republicans who generally make these kinds of arguments about courts interpreting, for example, statutes or state constitutions in a more stringent way. So I think in that regard, given the arguments that each party generally makes, the Republicans would be better off. .”

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However, John Hardin Young, an attorney at Sandler Reiff, told Fox News Digital that he believes it is highly unlikely the Supreme Court could decide the 2024 election, especially given the conservative majority.

“I think there’s a sensitivity now among the nine justices not to get involved unless it’s absolutely necessary,” Young said. “There is, I think, a certain bias on the part of the majority of the Supreme Court to get involved if they think that that process is being corrupted or if people are not following the rules, because the majority, I think, is very sensitive to democracy . depending on people following the rules.”

“There are so many uncertainties that we have to wait and see how things play out,” said Jeff Weiss, a professor at New York Law School.

Although the ECRA sought to clarify and revise the casting and counting of electoral votes, Teufle said the law as a whole the target of a lawsuit after November 5.

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“The entirety of the law could come into question if it is used in a way that affects the outcome of the election in a way that people consider inappropriate, unfair or unlawful,” Teufle said. “Both parties disappointed with the way the election is being counted could raise constitutional questions about the laws used and the process used to count the votes.”