These five congressional races in Pennsylvania could determine control of the House

With the U.S. House of Representatives closely divided, the battle for seats in Pennsylvania will be crucial for control of the chamber in this year’s elections, even as the state also plays a major role in determining control about the White House. and Senate.

The magic number of pickups is four for Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives, raising the stakes of any House race.

In Pennsylvania, the parties started the year seeing five races as competitive, as Democrats defended their 9-8 lead in the state’s 17-seat delegation.

Adding to the stakes is the fact that Pennsylvania is home to one of the “Biden 16” — the 16 House districts nationally that President Joe Biden won in 2020 but are represented by Republicans.

On the other hand, Pennsylvania is also home to one of eight districts that former President Donald Trump won, but are represented by Democrats. Five of those Democrats are running for re-election.

Federal Election Commission documents show that candidates and outside groups have poured more than $60 million into the election, with the total expected to rise significantly until polls close on Nov. 5.

There may be room for Republicans to flip the districts: two incumbent Democrats won by less than 2.5 percentage points in 2022.

Here’s a look at the top five races.

1st district

Brian Fitzpatrick, the four-term Republican U.S. Representative from Bucks County, just north of Philadelphia, is again a top target for Democrats: he is one of the Biden 16.

But Fitzpatrick, a mild-mannered former FBI agent who took over his late brother’s seat, has a powerful winning formula that includes his family’s name recognition and penetrates traditional Democratic voting districts.

He has the backing of top unions, as well as the AFL-CIO, and is running a digital ad calling himself the “No. 1 Most Bipartisan Congressman.”

His opponent is Ashley Ehasz, a former Army helicopter pilot whom he defeated by nearly 10 points in 2022.

Democrats have attacked Fitzpatrick’s vote for Trump’s tax cut legislation, his opposition to Trump’s impeachment and his support for a 20-week abortion ban in 2017.

Fitzpatrick runs an ad saying he supports the right to abortion – specifically Pennsylvania’s law protecting the right to abortion up to 24 weeks’ gestation, the Roe v. Wade viability standard – and cites his vote to protect access to IVF and contraception.

Fitzpatrick has more than doubled Ehasz’s fundraising, and her campaign has not attracted outside groups to spend money on Fitzpatrick.

7th and 8th districts

Three-term Democratic U.S. Representative Susan Wild and six-term Democratic U.S. Representative Matt Cartwright are each a persistent Republican target in their eastern Pennsylvania districts, and each has consistently fended off challengers, albeit with small margins.

Their races are emerging as the most expensive congressional contests in the state.

Cartwright has the distinction of being one of five Democrats nationally running for re-election in a district won by Trump in 2020 — even though his 8th District seat includes Scranton, the city ​​where Biden was born and that played a prominent role in Biden’s winning presidential campaign.

Wild and Cartwright represent adjacent counties with similar geographic areas: small towns, suburbs and vast rural areas in eastern Pennsylvania, including anthracite coal country. The districts are also comparable in the limited registration that Democrats have over Republicans.

Wild’s challenge in her 7th District seat in the Allentown area is state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Wild outraised Mackenzie nearly 7-to-1 through June 30.

Challenging Cartwright is Rob Bresnahan, a new candidate and developer who runs a family construction business.

Cartwright defeated Bresnahan by more than 2-to-1 through June 30, with outside groups pouring in more than $11 million, according to notices to the Federal Election Commission.

The Wild-Mackenzie race isn’t far behind, with outside groups reportedly spending more than $10 million on it.

10th arrondissement

The far-right politics of six-term Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry have made him a persistent target for Democrats in a Republican-leaning district surrounding the cities of Harrisburg and York, with deep red suburbs, rolling farmland and fast-growing neighborhoods. suburbs.

Perry chaired the Freedom Caucus, a hardline faction of conservatives that wields outsized influence over the Republican majority, and was the only lawmaker to have his cell phone seized by FBI agents investigating the web of Trump loyalists who were central to the fight against Trump. the former president’s attempt to stay in power following his 2020 re-election loss.

More about Perry’s efforts to help Trump emerged since he was last re-elected in 2022. Those details also included Perry’s efforts to elevate Trump’s position. Jeffery Clark to Trump’s acting attorney general — intended to reverse the Justice Department position it had found no evidence of widespread voter fraud that would change the election outcome.

Perry has not been charged with a crime.

Perry won re-election in 2022 by almost 8 points against a relatively weak opponent. This time he faces Janelle Stelson, a longtime local TV news anchor who is a household name.

Stelson has her own baggage: She’s a Republican-turned-Democrat who doesn’t live in the district. Yet she has relentlessly attacked Perry for his opposition to abortion rights and his role in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

17th arrondissement

Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio is being challenged in his western Pennsylvania district by state Rep. Rob Mercuri in a race that hasn’t made as much noise as the others.

Deluzio, a freshman, beat Mercuri nearly 3-to-1 through June 30 and the race attracted little interest from outside groups.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 4-3 ratio in the district, which includes the western suburbs of Pittsburgh and former steel towns along the Ohio River in Allegheny County to Beaver County.