Resistance forces are bringing the military regime in Myanmar to the brink of collapse

BANGKOK – Three well-armed militias launched a joint surprise offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago. This broke a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military by quickly capturing vast swathes of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Control of the military seemed to be firmly anchored in vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly in the background, having lost dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders admit would be a challenge to take back.

“The military is on the defensive across the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it actually has to move troops and is then left vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council on Defense Myanmar interest group.

“To us, it doesn’t look like there is a viable route back for the army to recapture the lost territory.”

The military seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021, sparking intense fighting with long-standing armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in the border regions, which have been fighting for decades for greater autonomy.

The takeover of the army also led to the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers who were barred from taking their seats after the military took power.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, named after its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses across the country.

Operation 1027 involved coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured cities and captured military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and other militias and PDFs have since joined across the country.

Myanmar’s army has been pushed back to the center of the country

A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now control all or part of a huge horseshoe area. It starts in Rakhine State in the west, runs through the north and then heads south to Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw have withdrawn towards central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told the Associated Press. “We just thought we would attack the Military Council together as far as we could, but it was easier than expected, so we were able to conquer faster.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an attack in which Myanmar’s National Democratic Alliance military captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and from the town of Lashio, where the army’s Northeastern Command had lived.

“The 1027 Offensive was a very impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a huge role because they were essentially able to dismantle the military network of fire support bases in northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, an in Singapore-based analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, which leads the Myanmar Conflict Map project.

“And once the army’s artillery support was eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the military has been “substantially weakened,” he said, but it is still too early to write it off.

The army is weakened, but not defeated

The Tatmadaw has managed to regain the city of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which fell in the early days of the 1027 offensive, after an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state and has retained administrative power. control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an attack by an ethnic group with the help of a rival militia.

Many expect the army to launch a counter-offensive when the rainy season ends soon, reinforced by some 30,000 new troops since conscription was activated in February and by its complete air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, in the center of the country.

And where they may be outmatched, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and self-confidence over the past year, said Lway Yay Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

“We have military experience on our side and based on this experience we can strengthen the combat operation,” she said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for the military regime, admitted that it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to expel the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory they have captured.

“We can’t take it back for a year,” he told the AP in an emailed response to questions. “I hope, however, that in the next two or three years I will give you a message of joy.”

The number of civilian casualties is rising as the military turns more to indiscriminate attacks

As the military has faced setbacks in fighting on the ground, it has become increasingly dependent on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in the number of civilian casualties caused by artillery since the 1027 offensive. According to a report last month from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, this has begun.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians it believes support resistance militias, a tactic that only further turns against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator of the SAC-M group.

“It doesn’t seem to have the impact they want to have,” she said. “It makes them even more hated by the population and really strengthens the resolve to ensure this is the end of the Myanmar military as it is known.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now a total of more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar, and around 18.6 million people in need, the UN said.

At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only one-third funded, hampering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Myanmar.

“The humanitarian outlook for the coming year is bleak and we expect the deteriorating situation to have a huge impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

However, the offensive has eased pressure in some areas, such as in the northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and was previously the focus of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front, whose armed wing has been involved in the fight against the army.

“In October last year, the military convoys going into the Chin Mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation, virtually no major military activities took place.”

Success brings new tensions between resistance groups

As the front has expanded, it has seen militias emerge from their own ethnic areas, such as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army took the Chin town of Paletwa in January. eventually fall.

In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA had taken over from the Tatmadaw, but added that negotiations should have taken place before starting to operate in Chin territory and that the AA was now Chin- troops should be called in to help. manage the area.

“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional governance issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this matter through dialogue, and not through military means.”

Currently, there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank, said this does not translate into common ground. ambitions.

Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to overthrow the junta, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, this could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Chinese interests and ties with both parties complicate the picture

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 Offensive in what turned out to be a successful effort to largely halt the organized crime activities that were flourishing along the border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months until the ethnic alliance broke up in June in phase two of the 1027 offensive opened, accusing the army of violating the ceasefire.

Dissatisfied with the development, China has closed border crossings, cut electricity to Myanmar cities and taken other measures in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

Support for the regime also appears to be increasing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which was not involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance and Ta’ang military. The National Liberation Army will halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of a meeting in August that was widely reported by local media.

However, there is no evidence that the UWSA did so.

“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.

“They have their own objectives that they pursue, which are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that is reflected in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”

The resistance’s grassroots support makes it less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesman for the opposition National Unity government.

“No matter who puts pressure on us, we win because of people power,” he said.