Are Patrick Mahomes’ interceptions bad throws or bad luck for the Chiefs?

At this point, just about every Kansas City Chiefs fan knows this stat: Patrick Mahomes has thrown more kickoffs than touchdowns through six games, 6 to 8. That’s a far cry from his career average touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3.26 . Combine that with the lowest average depth of target of any quarterback in the NFL, and it makes sense to ask: Is Patrick Mahomes hurting the Chiefs offense?

The Chiefs are undefeated, and many Chiefs fans will be quick to point to that as the only statistic that matters. That’s a nice way to look at things, but how sustainable is it? We all know the Chiefs aren’t going to go 17-0, so when losses come, the questions about Mahomes will increase.

There are many valid reasons why Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had a good season statistically. Even last year, when receivers were actively sabotaging him, it took him 8 weeks to throw his 8th interception. So what’s going on with the Chiefs offense this year?

Mahomes’ first pick of the season fell to all-world linebacker Roquan Smith. Mahomes forced the ball down the middle of the field and saw Smith sitting in zone defense or not. Rashee Rice was absolutely clear behind Smith but he missed it. It also looks like he’s potentially trying to throw the ball down, as there’s pressure essentially touching him as he releases the ball. Either way, he better get the sack on a bad play by Mahomes standards, or he needs to hit Rice here.

Similar to the first pick, Mahomes is again working the middle of the field, this time looking towards Kelce. This time, you can see his eyes lock onto Kelce early in his progression, and that’s where Davis-Gaither is already moving towards the shooting lane as the ball is released. Right now this feels like a forced shot to “get Kelce going”; Kelce was open, but if this was the throw, he had to throw the ball with more expectation. The guard was solid there, but he may have already heard the footsteps of Trey Hendrickson’s destruction at Kingsley Suamataia.

This was an incredible play in the corner because not many players make this play with one hand. This is easy to overlook, especially as they burned Taylor-Britt vertically with a goal from Rashee Rice early in the game. However, Xavier Worthy’s presence outside the press and no free broadcasting is not a recipe for success. It’s a low percentage shot to begin with. We can debate whether there should have been an election, but this was an unlikely outcome.

No one has stopped Patrick Mahomes better than Justin Simmons, and part of that is because he knows how to get the Chiefs QB into bad throws. It’s easy to see what Mahomes saw here as Noah Gray faded into the end zone. A good throw that leads Gray into open space will likely result in a touchdown. Mahomes turns it upside down (a trend in his tackles) and Simmons tackles it again. Notice Kelce celebrating at the bottom of the second screenshot because he thought it was an easy score.

One of the worst games of Patrick Mahomes’ career (when you factor in Rice’s injury). Here you can see where Mahomes wants to go with the ball to Kelce, and if he throws a perfect pass, he’ll likely be able to complete it on the corner. However, in the area near Kelce, there are two defenders covered in clouds. Essentially, it’s triple coverage. Mahomes sends the ball over Kelce and into the defender’s hands. This play was where Kelce’s lack of production started to bubble up, and it felt like the Chiefs were forcing the ball on him early in the game. One shot Rashee Rice and Patrick Mahomes both want to take back.

We can debate whether this shot could have been a little further ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the point is, it hits his hands. KC uses the friction route with Xavier Worthy to give Smith-Schuster the power to drive inside toward the end zone. Mahomes threw and read well, but JuJu couldn’t make the catch. These types of plays can be dangerous because there is a lot of traffic around the throw, but ultimately NFL receivers need to make the catch.

Sometimes you have to take your hat off to the other player for making a great play. Mahomes’ pass is intercepted by Kailia Davis at the line of scrimmage. It really wasn’t a bad throw or a bad guard. This is a perfectly timed jump for Davis. I’m not sure there’s much you can complain about from Mahomes here.

Similar to the game against the Bengals and Cam Taylor-Britt. I’m not sure this is a throw that would qualify as a high percentage play on 3rd and 8. Worthy appears to be running a post route with Lenoir underneath him and safety help up top. It might have been a hard shot through the window, but after the ball went up there would be absolutely no tackle until Worthy hit the ground. There’s not much you can do there for Mahomes other than hope this doesn’t happen again.

Four of Patrick Mahomes’ eight interceptions feel like they were clearly his fault. Add one more to Cam Taylor-Britt’s incredible play and you’re in 5th place. The other three were unlucky. This tracks with PFFs The turnover-worthy shooting metric has Mahomes at 7. Of course, every QB has turnover-worthy plays that are downed or recovered by his team. But this shows that he played better than 8 tackles in 6 games.

Another obvious factor is goals; Mahomes doesn’t throw for obvious reasons. The WR1, WR2, and RB1 were down on points and the 49ers were without WR3 for the game. Moreover, the Chiefs’ highly efficient running attack makes running in the red zone more effective. Kareem Hunt’s best asset might be his ability to get to the goal line, and his three touchdown passes are certainly impacting Mahomes’ numbers. We didn’t see the Chiefs use a shovel pass or push pass in the red zone because they didn’t need it.

Overall, Mahomes will have some setbacks with his blocking chances. He has to force the ball to lesser pass catchers because that’s what he has now. This could still lead to a higher number than Chiefs fans are used to seeing. He’s not doing his best, and there are a few obvious reasons why, but ultimately the numbers don’t do him justice.