Israel vs. Iran: How Their Conflict Shapes the Middle East

The low-boiling conflict between Israel and Iran has defined the Middle East for decades. Of the many conflicts that have roiled the region, theirs has long been among the most explosive. The two have attacked each other – usually quietly and in the case of Iran, often by proxy – while avoiding an escalation into direct war.

The conflict has entered a dangerous new phase with the outbreak of the current war between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, which Iran supports. That battle has attracted other Iranian-backed militant groups as well as Iran itself. Tensions rose after Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in July during a visit to Iran, allegedly by Israel. Then, in late September, Israeli forces assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Iran’s most valued regional ally, and entered southern Lebanon as part of a campaign against the militia. On October 1, Iran fired about 200 missiles directly at the country, in a major escalation. In retaliation, Israel began airstrikes on targets across Iran in the early hours of October 26.

Why are Israel and Iran enemies?

Israel and Iran were allies from the 1950s during the reign of Iran’s last monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, but the friendship ended abruptly with Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. The country’s new leaders took a strongly anti-Israel stance position and condemned the Jewish leaders. stands as an imperialist power in the Middle East. Iran has supported groups that regularly fight against Israel, most notably Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels, all of which are considered terrorist organizations by the US.

Israel views Iran’s potential to build nuclear weapons as a threat to its survival and is believed to be behind a sabotage campaign against the country’s nuclear program. Iran’s leaders say they have no ambition to build nuclear weapons. The Israelis point to a collection of documents that their intelligence agents spirited away from Iran in 2018 that suggests otherwise. Israeli officials have repeatedly suggested that if Iran reached the brink of weapons capability, they would attack its nuclear program using air power, as they did in Iraq in 1981 and in Syria in 2007.

What is Hezbollah’s role?

Lebanon is the oldest front in the shadow war. In response to Israel’s invasion of the south of the country in 1982, a militia that would become Hezbollah was formed by Lebanese Muslims belonging to Iran’s dominant Shiite branch of Islam. Their group became, to some extent, a proxy for Iran’s main security force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Israel and Hezbollah have fought repeatedly, including during a war in 2006. Since Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, provoking the current war, Hezbollah has expressed solidarity with Hamas by firing rockets, mortars and rockets at Israel on an almost daily basis to fire. prompting Israel to respond with friendly fire. With its significant combat power and arsenal, including long-range missiles and precision-guided missiles, Hezbollah is considered Iran’s most valuable asset for exerting influence in the Middle East.

What are the other fronts of the conflict between Israel and Iran?

Syria. Over the course of the civil war in Syria, Iran has built up a military presence in that country. It has done this both to support its ally, President Bashar al-Assad, and to assist Hezbollah by creating a land bridge to transfer weapons from Iran through Iraq and Syria. For Israel, this has created a second hostile presence on its northern border, beyond that of Hezbollah. In an effort to counter this and stem the flow of weapons, Israel has for years carried out attacks in Syria against arms shipments and other targets it believes are linked to Iran and its allies, in some cases killing Iranians, according to a report. media reports. Attacks on Iranian targets in Syria, attributed to Israel, accelerated after October 7.

Regional waters. In 2019, tit-for-tat attacks on commercial ships began. Although neither Israel nor Iran have accepted responsibility for the hits on linked ships, they are widely believed to be behind them. Targets included Iranian tankers carrying oil destined for Syria; an Iranian ship off the coast of Yemen that served as a floating base for the Revolutionary Guards; and cargo ships belonging to or associated with Israelis.

In an escalation of naval fighting, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have disrupted shipping in the Red Sea by attacking ships in solidarity with Hamas. They say they are targeting ships linked to Israel, as well as the US and Britain, which have launched retaliatory strikes on Houthi targets. But ships without such ties have been affected.

Yemen. The Houthis, who have controlled northwestern Yemen since the civil war broke out in 2014, have also thrown missiles and drones at Israel. Most have been intercepted, but a Houthi drone killed a man in Tel Aviv in July. Israel has launched retaliatory attacks on Yemen.

Iraq. Iran accuses separatist groups in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region of collaborating with foreign security services and has launched multiple attacks in the region since late 2022. Israel has used facilities in northern Iraq to gather intelligence on Iran in the past, according to multiple reports.

What about attacks in the two countries?

Israel and Iran exchanged fire on each other’s homelands for the first time earlier this year. Iran launched a massive missile and drone attack on Israel on April 13. This was precipitated by an airstrike two weeks earlier on Iran’s diplomatic buildings in the Syrian capital Damascus, which was widely attributed to Israel but not recognised. The attack killed seven Iranian soldiers, including a top commander of the Revolutionary Guard.

Iran’s attack prompted a more limited return attack by Israel on April 19. The barrage caused minimal damage but set the precedent for open, direct fighting between the two countries. Then came the exchanges in October.

In the past, Iran had largely absorbed Israeli attacks on its interests in Syria. In one exception, forces there in 2018 fired a barrage of rockets at Israeli positions on the Golan Heights, a plateau that Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 war and later annexed. Israel responded with a much greater show of force.

Covert attacks in the two homelands are becoming more common. Both Iran and Hamas accuse Israel of being responsible for the July 31 assassination of Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel is widely believed to be behind the killings in Tehran of five Iranian nuclear scientists since 2010 and several attacks on nuclear sites in Iran.

More than a decade ago, malware known as Stuxnet compromised operations at an Iranian nuclear enrichment facility in what was believed to be a U.S.-Israeli operation.

In October 2021, an Iranian general said Israel was likely behind a cyberattack that crippled gas stations across Iran. And in January 2023, after an Iranian ammunition depot near the central city of Isfahan was attacked with a drone strike, two US newspapers reported that Israel was responsible.

Cyberattacks launched by Iran included a hack that aimed to paralyze computers and water flow for two Israeli districts, the Council on Foreign Relations said.

How do the armies of Israel and Iran compare?

Israel’s armed forces have a huge technological advantage over Iran’s. That’s partly thanks to military and financial support from the US, which has long sought to secure Israel’s advantage as part of its commitment to the Jewish state’s security. For example, Israel is so far the only state in the Middle East to use Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 fighter jet. has purchased – the most expensive weapon system ever.

Israel is also widely believed to have nuclear weapons, although it has never acknowledged that capability. Iran has amassed enough enriched uranium to build several nuclear bombs, should its leaders choose to purify the heavy metal to the 90% level typically used in such weapons. It would still have to master the process of weaponizing the fuel to produce a usable device capable of hitting a remote target.

Sanctions and political isolation have hampered Iran’s access to foreign military technology, prompting the country to develop its own weapons, including the missiles and drones it fired into Israel in April. Iran’s fighter jets are mostly older models inherited from before the country’s 1979 revolution. The country hopes to improve its military capabilities through escalating cooperation with Russia. So far, the high-end Russian military goods that Iran most wants, including the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, remain on its wish list.

Although at a technological disadvantage, the Iranian military is believed to have a significant stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles and cheap unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, which it deployed against Israel in April.

As Iran learned in that attack and the subsequent attack on October 1, penetrating Israel’s substantial air defenses is a challenge. Israeli Air Force fighter planes pass by. Then there are Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling air defense systems, plus the interception capabilities of US and other allied forces in the region.

Iran’s own defensive arsenal includes surface-to-air missile systems, including the Russian S-300 to counter aircraft and cruise missiles, and the locally manufactured Arman anti-ballistic missile system. These have not been nearly as tested as Israel’s defenses – a testament to Iran’s preference for asymmetric warfare, where it can project excessive power, over infighting.