Israel’s attacks on Iran are increasing tensions in the Middle East

The war that no one wants is getting closer. In the latest escalation, Israel attacked about 20 Iranian military sites spread across three provinces in the early hours of October 26. Tel Aviv and Tehran have repeatedly claimed that they are not pursuing outright war. Yet the intensification of attacks by both countries has complicated the prospects for defusing, de-escalating or ending the broader range of conflicts pitting Israel against Iran and its “Axis of Resistance,” a network of militias in Gaza, Iraq , Lebanon, Syria. and Yemen.

Amid the escalation, there have been few visible or feasible exits to prevent the world’s most volatile region from deteriorating.

These conflicts have increasingly spread across the Middle East since Hamas invaded Israel, a horrific and deadly confrontation that pitted a militia in an area the size of Philadelphia against a nuclear-armed country the size of New Jersey. A direct war between Iran and Israel would involve the two largest armies in the Middle East. Amid the escalation, there have been few visible or feasible exits to prevent the world’s most volatile region from deteriorating.

Reactions to the attack

The initial response from both countries was dire, if only rhetorical. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s “precise and powerful” attack had achieved its goals. Tehran “must understand a simple principle: whoever hurts us, we hurt him,” he said. Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israeli Minister of National Security, called the airstrikes on Iran were merely an ‘opening blow’. The next phase, he emphasized, would involve damaging Iran’s strategic assets.

In Iran, the supreme leader is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised that the regime would consider how to “convey the power and will of the Iranian people,” while urging the public not to downplay or exaggerate what happened. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote this in a letter to the United Nations called the Israeli attacks are “unlawful and aggressive” and called on the world body to condemn Israel for violating Iran’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The precedent of major and direct attacks has now been set.

But the escalations have changed the long-standing algorithm of conflict in the Middle East. “Even if this round is contained, we are in a different situation” that has not yet been fully played out, said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Iran analyst for Israeli military intelligence. wrote on X (formerly Twitter). Thomas Juneau, defense analyst and Middle East expert at the University of Ottawawarnedthat the region would not return to the status quo even if Iran decides to de-escalate. The precedent of major and direct attacks has now been set. “That means that the base of tension in the future will be higher than before,” he wrote on The risk now consists of an ‘uncontrolled escalation’.

Offers on the table

Two long-sought diplomatic deals could help ease the context of hostilities in the short term: one would guarantee the release of more than 100 Israeli and other hostages that Hamas has been holding for more than a year in exchange for a ceasefire and more humanitarian aid for the Palestinians in Syria. Gaza. The other would push Hezbollah further from Israel’s southern border, allowing its citizens to return safely to their homes in exchange for an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah are the two militias on Israel’s borders trained, armed and at least partially funded by Iran.

U.S. diplomacy has been critical to both deals, as Israel would almost certainly not consider either without broad U.S. security guarantees. However, Tehran has only become angrier with Washington for deploying additional equipment and personnel in support of Israel. The Iranian mission to the UN accused the United States of complicity in the Israeli attack on October 26.

In the long run, neither agreement, even if approved by multiple parties in the various conflicts in the Middle East, could end more than four decades of hostility between Israel and Iran. Their hostilities date back to the 1979 Iranian revolution, which ended diplomatic recognition of the monarchy, military cooperation and trade with Israel. The new theocracy called Israel the “Little Satan,” and America the “Great Satan.” Iran began maintaining a network of militias in the early 1980s, which played out in a shadow war for the next forty years.

Timeline of strikes

Both coordinated the scope of their attacks. But both rejected recognition of the other’s security needs.

In the seven-month period between April and October 2024, direct tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran grew larger and more sophisticated with each round. Both claimed the other was the aggressor. Both felt like victims. Each unleashed its military arsenal – gradually, but increasingly – to warn the other to withdraw. Both coordinated the scope of their attacks. But both rejected recognition of the other’s security needs. The following is a timeline of major attacks – not including the almost daily cross-border attacks between Hezbollah and Israel – during those seven months.

April 1: An Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killed more than a dozen, including two Revolutionary Guard generals and other military officials. The attack is said to violate international protocol protecting diplomatic facilities.

April 13: In response, Iran unleashed more than 300 drones and missiles in its first direct attack on Israel; most were intercepted or downed by Israel and a US-led coalition.

April 19: In a retaliatory strike, Israel struck an Iranian air defense system near a facility in Natanz linked to Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

July 31: Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated while visiting Tehran for the inauguration of a new Iranian president; The attack was widely believed to have been carried out by Israel.

September 17-18Dozens of Lebanese were killed and hundreds injured when pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in an attack largely linked to Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah. “We are at the beginning of a new phase in the war,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Israeli forces.

September 27: An Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah’s long-serving leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

October 2:Iran fired 180 rockets at Israel in retaliation for the deaths of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian military officials.

October 26In response, Israel attacked about 20 military targets – including missile production sites, radar stations and air defense batteries – in three Iranian provinces.

The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Wilson Center.