Ukraine expands the list of targets for long-range drone attacks, alcohol is now on the menu

Ukraine faces a difficult dilemma as winter approaches.

How can it be a expected massive Russian missile campaign target the country’s infrastructure while being barred from using Western-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia?

Despite being limited to the use of long-range kamikaze drones, one method used by Kiev has achieved some spectacular successes in recent weeks.

One of the largest explosions of the large-scale invasion created, in the words of a source from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), an ammunition warehouse “literally wiped off the face of the earth“in Tver Oblast last month.

This came just days after Ukraine confirmed attacks at two other arms depots, with the UK Ministry of Defense saying the combined strikes have caused “the greatest loss of ammunition” in Russia during its all-out war against Ukraine.

While the destruction of Russian cruise missiles and ballistic missiles by Ukrainian drones seems an obvious target for Kiev’s military planners, more recent attacks show that the campaign is much broader. It now includes ethanol distilleries that produce industrial alcohol.

‘Russian military aviation cannot function without alcohol’ Andrii Kovalenkohead of the anti-disinformation department of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said in a post on social media.

His comments on October 28 followed reports of an attack on an ethanol plant in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast the night before.

Kovalenko was not referring to the drinking habits of Russian pilots, but to the ethanol used in the manufacture of a wide range of everyday items, such as mouthwash and paintto military-grade products needed to keep an air force flying.

“From fuel to braking systems, from fluids for technical needs, cleaning agents to anti-icing agents. It’s all alcohol,” Kovalenko said.

Targeting the bottlenecks

In addition to the attacks on ammunition depots, Ukraine has also continued to target Russian factories, most recently the Kremniy El microelectronics factory in the Russian city of Bryansk on October 19.

“When you target an adversary’s capabilities, there are always two ways to do it: you target the capabilities themselves, such as the missile storage sites, the aircraft that carry them, etc., or you can target the production,” says Fabian Hinz, a researcher. fellow for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Kiev Independent.

According to reportsThe Kremniy El plant produced parts for the Russian Iskander ballistic missile, among other things, making it a perfect target for Ukraine, Hinz said.

“The smart way to do things is… to address the bottlenecks,” he said, adding:

“And if you’re very lucky, that bottleneck might not only be very small, but it might not be as well defended as other parts of the production process.”

And with the recent attacks on ethanol production, it appears that Ukraine is trying to address a potential bottleneck in Russian aviation.

The aircraft dilemma and logic of drone strikes on distilleries

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s concerted campaign to gain permission to strike deep into Russia with Western-supplied weapons such as the US-made ATACMs and the British Storm Shadows has so far failed.

Kiev specifically hoped to use the weapons for this purpose Attacking Russian air basesdestroying aircraft such as the Tu-22 bomber launching missiles against Ukrainian cities.

Compounding the problem while international debate dragged the heelsthe White House confirmed last month that Russia had taken action 90% of aircraft out of range of long-range missiles such as the American-made ATACMS.

While Russian air bases are still within range of Ukraine’s long-range drones, they are far less effective against well-defended targets than ATACMs or Storm Shadows.

“One-way attack UAVs usually have a fairly small warhead, so it is not the same as a ballistic or cruise missile,” Hinz said.

However, drones can potentially have an outsized impact when they hit highly flammable and less protected targets, such as ethanol distilleries.

The first recently reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian ethanol plants took place on October 22, reportedly involving the use of a drone set fire to the Biokhim distillery in the city of Rasskazovo.

Videos posted on social media Panicked locals sparked a massive fire at the site of the strike.

According to Biokhim’s website, the plant produces “products of strategic importance for the state”, mainly ethanol.

Two more distilleries were attacked that same night in the settlements of Efremov and Luzhkovsky in Tula Oblast.

And more recently, Russian media reported this that a Ukrainian drone targeted distilleries in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast on the evening of October 27.

“Strikes on distilleries are attacks on Russian aircraft to reduce their capabilities,” Kovalenko said.

But an expert who spoke to the Kiev Independent suggested that the Ukrainian tactic of attacking ethanol plants is unlikely to have a serious impact on Russian military aviation.

“While it sounds superficially plausible, it will be difficult for such attacks to have a lasting impact, even in winter,” Peter Layton, former Australian Air Force officer, Associate Fellow at RUSI and Visiting Fellow at Griffith, told Griffith Asia Institute, at the Kiev. Independent.

Layton pointed out that ethanol is “widely available worldwide,” and even if all of Russia’s production were taken away, a friendly country like China could quickly supply it.

“New shares can be bought quickly on the global market,” he said. “In addition, Russian ethanol plants will likely be out of service for only a short time until they are repaired.

“It sounds like a critical vulnerability, but it’s unlikely to be the case.”

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