Pennsylvania Catholics are divided over an election in which their votes could be decisive

PITTSBURGH (AP) — Nationally, Catholic voters have been a crucial constituency in recent presidential elections. This year in the vital state of Pennsylvania, they are likely to make up at least a quarter of the electorate – and thus play a crucial role in determining the overall outcome.

There is a seesaw effect in the state. Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by about 44,000 votes in 2016; Joe Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by 80,000 votes.

John Fea, a history professor at Messiah University in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, said he believed Biden — an Irish-American Catholic and regular Mass attender — was linked to some Catholics as one of their own.

“I don’t think most working-class Catholics thought Biden was a perfect candidate, but he was one of them,” said Fea, who studies the interaction between religion and politics.

Now Trump, a non-denominational Christian, is back at the top of the Republican ticket, with JD Vance – a Catholic – as his running mate.

The Democrats have a ticket without Catholics, led by Kamala Harris, who is of black and South Asian descent and comes from a Baptist tradition with a strong social justice orientation, and running mate in Tim Walz, a white Lutheran.

Fea said some voters in the counties around Scranton, where Biden was born, may have voted for him in 2020 because of the Catholic connection, but may not have voted for Harris.

“You could make an argument that the way those counties are going… so is Pennsylvania, and so is the nation,” Fea said.

A staunch opponent of abortion, Nikki Bruni of Pittsburgh says she could never vote for Harris. Trump has her vote, even as she is dismayed that he is retreating from the Republican Party’s traditionally staunch opposition.

“I considered not voting, but Pennsylvania is a swing state,” said Bruni, director of People Concerned for the Unborn Child, a local anti-abortion group. “I must do what I morally can to prevent evil from gaining complete control.”

For Catholics who support Harris, there is a similar sense of urgency: that in a state where more than a quarter of voters were Catholic in 2020, the entire election could hinge on a handful of their co-religionists.

One group, Catholics Vote for the Common Good, recently posted billboards around Pittsburgh and Erie, urging Catholics to consider the “common good” — a set of essential concerns in Catholic social teaching — and not just the issue of abortion.

“If you want to be pro-life, you have to be more than just anti-abortion,” said Kevin Hayes, president of the Pennsylvania group. “Immigration has a pro-life component. Healthcare has a pro-life component. Providing adequate support to young families and young mothers with children has a pro-life component.”

He also said that Trump, with his verbal attacks on the justice system and calling out critics “ enemies from within ‘ is a threat to democracy.

Even though both campaigns seek the votes of Hispanic Catholics, most of Pennsylvania’s Catholic population is descended from white European immigrants, many of whom worked in the mines and factories during the state’s industrial heyday. They have dwindled in numbers due to the decline of the industry and scandals in the church, but many are still around, and their legacy is marked by spiers and onion domes across the state.

“That demographic should not be overlooked,” said Hayes, one of the Catholics urging the Harris campaign to pay more attention to them.

To be clear, there is no “Catholic vote,” as might have been the case in previous generations, when Catholics could be expected to support their own voting bloc.

But there are Catholic voters – lots of them.

According to AP VoteCast, 27% of Pennsylvania voters identified as Catholic in 2020, and the neighboring swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin also have large Catholic populations. A Franklin & Marshall Poll poll in October suggested a competitive race could emerge among Catholics in the state.

Pennsylvania Catholics, who are overwhelmingly white and non-Hispanic, supported Trump over Biden that year by a 55%-44% margin, while the national Catholic vote, with a much larger Hispanic share, was about evenly distributed.

Vance, now the only Catholic in the race, has been heavily influenced by conservative Catholics. Nevertheless, he has supported Trump’s attempts to downplay abortion as a central issue, even as Trump still claims credit for the Supreme Court appointees who helped overturn Roe v. Wade and turn the issue over to the states.

Hayes and other Harris supporters have urged her campaign to pay more attention to Pennsylvania Catholics, and they have taken their own steps.

A group of Catholics from the Philadelphia area recently traveled by bus to Wilkes-Barre, near Scranton, stopping for Mass at a Polish Catholic shrine along the way. They went door to door on behalf of their candidate before holding an evening campaign rally.

An organizer of the tour, Steve Rukavina, said the group mainly approached Catholics and others with ancestors in Poland, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries, including those in NATO.

He cited concerns that Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO’s mission issue taken with the Biden-Harris administration sending US aid to Ukraine. Trump has made vague vows to end the war and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I believe that a significant number of Polish and Ukrainian Americans will switch and vote for the Democratic ticket in 2024 because of the NATO and Ukraine issues, coupled with the character issue,” Rukavina said.

U.S. Catholic bishops, in their guide for Catholic voters, declared opposing abortion “our highest priority because it directly attacks our most vulnerable and voiceless brothers and sisters.”

They also cited concerns that don’t entirely fit with either party’s platform, including pro-LGBTQ+ issues, threats to religious freedom, migrant suffering, racism, wars and access to health care and education.

Less than half of Catholics called abortion a “very important” issue in determining their vote, according to a late summer survey by the Catholic Church. Pew Research Center. More than half mentioned gun policy, foreign policy, Supreme Court appointments and health care, while two-thirds or more mentioned immigration, violent crime and the economy.

Trump supporter James Karamicky expressed some of these concerns after leaving a recent mass at St. Paul Cathedral in Pittsburgh. He criticized the Biden administration for its border policies and for sending many billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine.

“It’s too much money,” he said. “There are people in this country who are suffering, the homeless, vets.”

Tatiana Rad, a Trump supporter and a Ukrainian Catholic immigrant, said the former president is the clear choice.

Rad grew up in the former Soviet Union, where Catholics were persecuted, and she views Republicans as more favorable to religion. She supports Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration and believes he will make good on his claim to stop the war in Ukraine.

“If America will be strong, the whole world will look to America,” she said. “They need a strong leader.”

Brandon Friez, a University of Pittsburgh student who is supporting Harris, said her presidency would be the best choice for preserving democracy. He also sees moral problems with the Republican Party and Trump.

“The prolonged suffering of the poor is not something that should be tolerated,” he said. “I feel like the Republican Party is not doing enough to alleviate the suffering of the poor.”

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Associated Press religion reporting receives support through the APs cooperation with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.