Trump leads crucial swing state in new poll

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by just one point (a near tie) in Pennsylvania in a new poll this week, as polling averages show the race is essentially even in the battleground state that will likely decide the winner of the elections. 2024 elections.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a moderate rally … (+) conversation with former U.S. Representative Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, at the People’s Light Performing Arts Theater Malvern, Pennsylvania, on October 21, 2024. (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

Harris has a slim lead of 49%-48% over Trump, according to a cooperative election study poll released this week (3,685 respondents, surveyed as part of a national survey of universities conducted by YouGov).

Meanwhile, the candidates are tied at 48% in a CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday, and Trump is up 49%-48% in an Emerson poll of likely voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.4), maintaining his one-point lead over the group. questionnaire released on October 10

Harris leads Trump 50%-48.2% among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult questionnaire out last week (margin of error 3), and Harris is also ahead by two points, 49% to 47%, in a Washington Post/Schar School poll of likely voters published days earlier (margin of error 4.6).

Harris led Trump by three points, 50%-47%, in a pair New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released on October 12, while Trump rose 47%-46% between September 28 and October. 8 Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.

The polling averages are close: Trump leads by 0.4 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for ten of the last twelve White House winners. The candidate who won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) over the past eight elections.

According to Silver, Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other state election prediction modelwhich also showed that both candidates have a better than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden — who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania — reversed the trend in 2020, with the state putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the elections. Secondary school

Pennsylvania is also important to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

The state has a high share of working-class white voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white — a demographic Trump has generally done well with, although Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to the Biden’s performance in 2020. According to the latest figures, Trump is only three points behind nationally PBS News/NPR/Marist Pollafter Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.

Surprising fact

Since 1948, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, and the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan continues, she is almost certain to win the White House.

Important background

If Trump maintains his leads in Arizona and Georgia and wins North Carolina, as he is expected to do, he will need only one of the “Blue Wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) to win the White House.

Big number

82%. That’s the share of registered voters in Pennsylvania who said the economy is an important factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%, according to a CBS/YouGov questionnaire. According to a recent Pew Research, the results are comparable to those of the national electorate questionnaire of registered voters believe that 81% of registered voters consider the economy to be “very important” in the election.

Chief critic

Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris for her past endorsement a fracking ban—Pennsylvania is the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer. “Fracking? She has been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during the debate in Philadelphia. Harris, who said during a CNN climate town hall in 2019 when she was running for president, “There is no question that I support banning fracking,” has said she has since changed her position. During a debate with Trump, Harris said she made “very clear” in 2020 that she opposes a ban on fracking, presumably referring to her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, and noted that the Inflation Reduction Act opened up new gas leasing deals – reiterating a position she had taken. in a CNN interview last month. Harris didn’t actually say that she had changed her own position on the issue during the 2020 debate — instead, she said that then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden “will not stop fracking.”

Tangent

Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is very popular in the state. The Democrats also control the House of Representatives, but the Republicans have the majority in the Senate.

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Narrowly Leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but Tied in Pennsylvania (Forbes)

How Kamala Harris’ views on fracking have changed after backtracking on the ban (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris rises by 1 point – as her pre-debate leading plateau (Forbes)