Updated win-loss projections and bowl odds from ESPN’s FPI

Georgia Tech was 5-2 just a few weeks ago, but a tough schedule combined with injuries to key players like quarterback Haynes King and linebacker Kyle Efford have the Yellow Jackets now at 5-4 with three games remaining to go. The injured players have a chance to come back, but the schedule doesn’t get any easier. Two of the three remaining opponents on Georgia Tech’s schedule are currently ranked in the top five of the AP Poll (No. 2 Georgia and No. 5 Miami). Playing a bowl game won’t be easy and it may come down to Georgia Tech being able to beat NC State at home after they face the Hurricanes.

ESPN’s FPI however, is confident that Georgia Tech can finish 6-6. After the loss to Virginia Tech, FPI’s updated projections still have Georgia Tech finishing with a 6-6 record and give the Yellow Jackets an 84% chance of six wins. It only gives them a 2.3% chance of winning on this schedule.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help view matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance in the future. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams from 1 to 128; rather, it is to correctly predicting games and season results, if Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to determine its boundaries, they would probably look a lot like FPI.

If Georgia Tech can get six wins, it would be the first time the program has gone to bowl games in consecutive seasons since 2013-14.

Additional links:

Georgia Tech Football: Analysis of the importance of the last three games for the Yellow Vests

Bleav Georgia Tech: Analysis of the loss to Virginia Tech and looking ahead to the last three games

Georgia Tech Basketball: Baye Ndongo named to ESPN’s top 100 players list for 2024-2025 season