The real reason Latino voters are abandoning Kamala Harris and the Democrats

Support for the Democrats among black voters shows signs of some erosionbut it is Latinos – now the nation’s largest racial minority – who could prove to be the crucial decider of the 2024 election. Latinos are now the largest ethnic minority in the country, increasing 23 percent between 2010 and 2020, and now represent 62.1 million, or 18.7 percent, of the total U.S. population. In California, Latinos represent nearly 40 percent of the population.

Unlike African Americans, 80 percent or more of whom are likely to vote for Democrats, Latinos are much more evenly distributed. The Democratic share of Latino voters, nearly 70 percent in 2016, is now only slightly above half. Latinos make up nearly 15 percent of all eligible voters, though they tend to be less prominent than other groups, and that share could nearly double by 2030. Latinos could be decisive in many key battleground states, such as Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

In the past, progressives have assumed that Latinos as “people of color” would be a sure constituency for Democrats. But it is likely that economic factors are more decisive than racial considerations in voting patterns. Projections indicate that Latinos will make up 78 percent of net new workers in the U.S. between 2020 and 2030.

Crucially, Latinos, especially men, are particularly prominent in manufacturing, agriculture, transportation and construction. People who work with their hands and small entrepreneurs trend towards the Republican Party, while those who work as yoga instructors, teachers, environmental consultants and lawyers tend to be Democrats. Black voters, meanwhile, are overrepresented in government jobs, such as transit workers and nursing assistants, and make up more than 18 percent of the federal government’s workforce, about 50 percent more than their share of the population. Hispanics represent less than 10 percent of the federal workforce, about half their share of the population.

Latinos are also prominent in the small business sector. They start more businesses per capita than any other racial or ethnic group. Most small Latino businesses are small and family-run and represent the fastest growing group of entrepreneurs in the United States. Over the past decade, the number of Latino entrepreneurs has grown by 34 percent, compared to just 1 percent for all entrepreneurs. Like people in manual occupations, small business owners lean toward the Republican Party, perhaps drawn by their promise of reducing crime, lowering taxes and less regulation.

In addition to these economic considerations, cultural factors also play a role. On the whole, Latinos – and most immigrants – are somewhat inclined to be more religiously and culturally conservative than white Americans, and far more than modern, culturally ultra-progressive Democrats. Just as only four percent identify with the term Latinx, an invention of academics and activists, most Latinos are less interested in fighting “white supremacism” than in improving their livelihoods and families.

Immigration appears not to be quite the winner that Democrats long believed. For example, there is remarkably little support for the Biden-Harris immigration policies among LatinosS. According to a June CBS News poll, and at least half of Hispanics, the vast majority of Americans support deporting undocumented immigrants. Most also support the idea that people must prove their citizenship to vote, a position widely rejected by progressives.

Concerns about mass undocumented immigration reflect economic realities. The Congressional Budget Office warns that the recent “wave of immigration,” much of which is undocumented, could impact the salaries of low-income workers, many of whom are Latino. Moreover, roughly half of all Latinos, Pew notes, associate the current wave with increased crime in their community. These feelings are likely to be particularly strong in places like South Texas, which once had a heavily democratic climate areas have shifted more to the GOP.

But whatever their concerns, Latinos also offer an optimism that is desperately needed right now. Like most immigrants, they still believe and cherish the American Dream. When asked what the most important factors are for succeeding in the US, 94 percent said “a strong work ethic and hard work.” They generally want more of it, not less America, and tend to be more optimistic about the future than non-Latino whites. Latinos also represent the fastest growing population in the military, making up approximately 16 percent of all active duty military personnel. The number of Latino police officers increased by more than 80 percent between 1997 and 2020.

What Latinos want, for the most part, is not the end of the American Dream, but access to it. But this does not mean that they will shift inexorably permanently to the right. Although they object to some progressive bromides, most are working class and many favor expanding the role of government in stimulating growth. If they lean more Republican, it is more toward the Trumpian populist side than toward the free-market libertarianism embraced by many college-educated conservatives.

In the coming decades, especially as the current wave of immigrants become legal citizens, Latinos seem likely to shape the future America and its politics. For the most part, this could be a very good thing.

Joel Kotkin is a presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and a senior research fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas

Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 3 months with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.