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A stunning poll shows Harris breathing down Trump’s neck in Kansas. This is what that means. • Kansas reflector

Posted on by Larry
A stunning poll shows Harris breathing down Trump’s neck in Kansas. This is what that means. • Kansas reflector

Want to talk about that new poll showing Kansas as a potential swing state? Okay, let’s talk about that new poll showing Kansas as a potential swing state.

The annual one Kansas Speaks Survey from Fort Hays State University’s Docking Institute, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris showed just one five points behind Republican candidate Donald Trump. Since the study focuses on traditionally conservative Kansas, political pundits pounced on it.

“BREAKING: Trump wins by just 5 in KANSAS,” wrote legal commentator Tristan Snell.

“As long as Harris is only five behind Trump Kansas – election night will be very good for Democrats,” the Obama campaign and administration said alumnus Tim Fullerton.

“…holy sh*t?” exclaimed journalist and attorney Seth Abramson.

Let’s step away from the excited progressive responses for a moment and actually talk about the poll, what it means and whether Harris has a chance in Kansas. (Spoiler alert, they almost certainly not). We found a great person who can help us solve things: Brett Zollingerdirector of the Docking Institute itself. On Tuesday afternoon, he spoke with Kansas Reflector staff to provide background information on these surprising results.

First, we must understand that the data presented comes from a survey and not an opinion poll. Kansas Speaks primarily tracks public opinion on issues, not candidates. It gathers a representative panel of Kansans and collects information from them through a carefully designed survey online.

“The presidential elections are a very minor point of interest for us Kansas speaks” he said. “We’re much more focused on policy, issues that are going to be relevant to Kansans, that are likely to come up in the legislative session, things like that. But every four years we get this unique opportunity to see what our research methodology proves in terms of some of the actual voter decisions in the state in the presidential election. So in 2020, we were within 0.2% of the Trump-Biden gap using our survey panel methodology.”

For referenceIn 2020, Trump finished at 56.2% in Kansas, while President Joe Biden reached 41.6%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. The 2020 Kansas Speaks Survey found 52% support for Trump and 37.6% for Biden, a difference of 14.4 percentage points.

That earlier accuracy was widely noted by online commentators. But Zollinger wanted Kansas Reflector readers to understand that the modeling and weighting decisions made for the Kansas Speaks poll are not necessarily the same as those made by political polling firms. They play different games.

ABC News hosts a presidential debate between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia
Republican presidential candidate, former US President Donald Trump, and Democratic presidential candidate, US Vice President Kamala Harris, debate on September 10 at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

“If we were actually trying to measure presidential election turnout with much predictive power, we would probably be engaging in a fuller methodology that is common in the polling industry, especially in the presidential voting industry,” Zollinger said. “Not us. But we’ll leave it up to registered voters who say they plan to vote, which isn’t necessarily a bad methodology for doing that. And the survey panel is what it is. These are people who have signed up for a survey. It is not uncommon to use these nowadays. Pew Research has its own big one. Gallup has one.”

Researchers looked at several demographic factors, he said, “and we pretty much did a simple proportional weighting.” (You can in the crosstabs on page 96.) They did the same with their 2020 results.

“We took the proportion of the sample that fit a certain age profile, and we adjusted that to the age profile of adults in the state, same with gender, same with education level. … We believe this is the most reasonable approach to try to make up for some underrepresentation of certain age groups on the panel and some underrepresentation of certain education levels,” Zollinger said.

Which all brings us to the fundamental question: do we believe the results of the study?

I do, with caveats.

Kansas has changed. In eight years since I came back against the state, I have seen how a colorful mix of Republicans, Democrats and independents have rejected Trump and extreme ideologies. I have seen a constitutional amendment that would have allowed the legislature to ban abortion Margin of 18 points. I watched voters elect Democrat Laura Kelly as governor twice. I have also heard and read over and over again in repeated email messages that Kansans do not like the current political atmosphere.

That doesn’t immediately turn us into a swing state. It does not guarantee a democratic legislature in the short term. But it suggests, at least from my perspective, that Republicans can’t count on a blank check from Kansas voters.

Trump will almost certainly win Kansas. But that margin will matter.

Alex Middlewood, a political scientist at Wichita State, explained the study results via a Tweet thread. She said the results show Trump has lost ground in Kansas over the past eight years.

“His vote share was lower in 2020 than in 2016, and 2024 will most likely be even lower. Make no mistake: Trump is going to win Kansas,” she wrote. “Any shift in the margins, however, as we see from these results, will likely have a major impact on the battle for the state legislature. D’s are working hard (and spending a lot of money) to break the R supermajority. These results should give them hope.”

More Kansans are speaking

I’ve been following interesting presidential endorsements in Kansas news outlets over the past few weeks. You may not be able to read a message of support from the Washington Post, but these courageous Kansans have a lot to say.

“Representative Steven Howe is considering voting for Trump after previous criticism”, by Steven Howe, Salina Post, October 26.

“My fellow conservatives, we must divide the fates to save the U.S. Constitution,” by David Mastio, Kansas City Star, October 29.

“Oops, I voted for Hitler… again,” by Dane Hicks, Kansas Informer, October 30.

“Kamala Harris has what it takes,” by Susan Lynn, The Iola Register, October 25.

Clay Wirestone is Opinion Editor of Kansas Reflector. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policy or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own comments, here.