China’s warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal

• The Chinese military has flown into Taiwan’s ADIZ almost every day since 2020.

• The number of crossings of the center line has increased enormously, effectively erasing it completely.

• The raids and large-scale military exercises are exhausting the Taiwanese army.

Chinese fighter jets are putting pressure on Taiwan and have all but eliminated a major dividing line, with near-daily raids creating a dangerous new normal.

Since 2020, Taiwan has released regular, almost daily updates on incursions into its air defense identification zone by Chinese military aircraft. It has also documented ongoing Chinese efforts to degrade the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which was constructed in 1955.

Researchers Thomas J. Shattuck, a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and Benjamin Lewis, co-founder of the PLATracker organization, have been monitoring increasingly bold Chinese behavior. A review of data from Taiwan shows that the ADIZ incursions over the past four years have shown a growing rejection of the unofficial dividing line put in place to combat the conflict.

China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and crossings of the median line in the Taiwan Strait have skyrocketed, with the number of ADIZ incursions rising from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 now.

A country’s ADIZ extends far beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, it sends in combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, and that number almost doubled in 2022. In 2023, 1,703 aircraft were registered. And 2024 looks set to have a record number, with more than 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They are also no longer limited to a corner of the ADIZ.

Crossings of the median line have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taiwan, and China has steadily erased it altogether. In a recent exercise around Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes crossed over the country, marking a single-day record. A few years ago, Taiwan might have seen hundreds of people crossing the border, but over a period of months.

“We have become desensitized to the large numbers of military aircraft flying over the center line of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago that was unheard of. Now it’s just another Thursday.”

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using its growing military to achieve unification. This is raising concerns in Taipei, the US and other Western countries that China will one day become a… blockade or large-scale invasion of Taiwan to force the country to yield to Beijing’s authority.

Beijing’s tactics include a range of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and large-scale military exercises aimed at forcing the Taiwanese people to reject independence.

Recently, two joint exercises, ‘Joint Sword 2024-A’ and ‘Joint Sword 2024-B’, saw China’s People’s Liberation Army effectively encircle Taiwan, simulating how it might blockade key ports and areas, attack maritime and ground targets can attack and conquer territory.

During ‘Joint Sword 2024-B’, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense said that a record number of Chinese fighter planesmore than 150, flew to his ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te said China aims to “undermine stability and the status quo.”

Chinese incursions are tiring Taiwan’s armed forces

The almost daily ADIZ raids are not only changing the status quo in the area; they also exhausted the Taiwanese military.

In October 2020, then Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said Taipei’s air force and navy spent nearly $1 billion on monitoring Chinese flights. Since then, Taiwan has adjusted its responses to the ADIZ violations to reserve resources, but the burden remains on the country.

In this difficult situation, “the concern is the continued degradation of Taiwan’s military assets and the drain of Taiwan’s military personnel,” Shattuck said, explaining that China is “exploiting” Taiwan’s military capabilities by flooding the field and To force Taiwan to choose what things deserve. a response.”

That degradation could ultimately weaken Taiwan’s military if one of China’s large-scale exercises suddenly becomes the real thing, and if U.S. aid to Taiwan is “long delayed and overdue,” it could hamper Taiwan’s preparedness .

“The median line of the Taiwan Strait – a de facto border that created some semblance of cross-Strait stability – is no more” and “Taiwan cannot push back against these Chinese incursions on all fronts,” Lewis and Shattuck recently wrote.

This is an attritional battle, they said, arguing that while Chinese military activities around Taiwan have “become normalized and are part of the ever-deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” Taipei and Washington still have cards to play. to play.

Taiwan has for years had fractious relations with Beijing, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has branded Lai a “separatist.”

During his inauguration speech, Lai pledged to uphold Taiwan’s democracy as a global beacon, calling on China to stop its intimidation against Taiwan. The speech further inflamed relations, and “Joint Sword 2024-A” followed shortly after. Lai softened the rhetoric during his National Day speech earlier this month, showing restraint in calls for peace and understanding.

“Lai’s National Day speech indicates that Taipei is trying to find ways to extend an olive branch to China while maintaining its claims about Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty,” Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at Crisis Group for China, to BI. But the Chinese response, ‘Joint Sword 2024-B’, was intense and conveyed a message.

No matter what Lai says or how he approaches relations, Shattuck said, China does not trust him.

“It no longer matters what kind of olive branches a DPP president may extend because Beijing will not accept them,” he said, explaining that “Beijing is trying to accelerate its squeeze of Taiwan’s own sovereign territory.” This has consequences for Taiwan and its international partners.

As the Chinese military continues its incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, Washington and its allies must “remain vigilant in protesting these activities so that it becomes clear that military coercion by Taiwan is unacceptable,” Shattuck said.

“It is unrealistic to claim that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop Chinese air and maritime incursions around Taiwan,” he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. “Washington,” they said, “should work to enhance Taiwan’s ability to monitor the situation around its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to push back if necessary.”

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