ESPN’s FPI predicts an uninspiring end to the 2024 season in West Virginia

It was a disappointing 2024 season for West Virginiabut they still have a chance to get it right and finish the season on a strong note with a relatively easier schedule in the month of November. The big question, of course, is the status of quarterback Garrett Greene and whether he can return to action, and if so, when.

Since it was the bye week, I thought we could look at the big picture here with the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). Below is the current percentage chance that the FPI matchup forecaster gives West Virginia of winning every game left on the schedule.

I’ll be honest: this one is a tough match to read for a lot of reasons. West Virginia has endured a tough schedule and could be without their starting quarterback again.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, starts this game at a surprising 5-3, but they haven’t played a single ranked team yet. They have defeated Towson, Miami (OH), Arizona State with a backup quarterback, and UCF and Houston, who are a combined 3-7 in Big 12 play.

Since it’s on the road, I can understand the computers favoring the Bearcats, but I think it’s a lot closer to 50/50.

What about those bears? After a disappointing 2-4 start to the season, Baylor has reeled off two straight wins and looks like a completely different animal. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson is splitting teams right now, and you know he has to lick his chops as this defensive secondary is on his upcoming schedule.

Again, I understand why the computers here are leaning towards West Virginia, but this is purely a toss-up game for me.

Only 53.6%? Yes. I expected this to be north of 60. The Knights have lost five in a row, and while they are favored to win against Arizona this week, it’s one they can certainly drop before heading to Arizona State.

What am I saying here? Well, there’s a good chance that UCF enters this road trip to Morgantown on a seven-game losing streak. For a team that thought they were in shape for a Big 12 title this year, losing seven straight and not qualifying for a bowl, I doubt the enthusiasm they’ll have coming to West Virginia at the end of November.

This is a bit generous, don’t you think? The Red Raiders have a high-flying offense that poses a lot of problems for this faltering West Virginia defense.

Behren Morton has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 17/3, and Tahj Brooks is still one of the best running backs in the conference, closing in on 1,000 yards this season.

Texas Tech has had Neal Brown’s number regardless of coach, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the Mountaineers fall in the season finale.

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