The battle for Senate control is reaching its limits as spending breaks records

HARRISBURG, Pa. — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, the Rocky Mountains and the American Southwest, as the two major political parties portray their opponent’s candidates as extreme in a battle for control of the U.S. Senate.

More than $1 billion is expected to be spent in three races alone — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — by Nov. 5.

The race in Ohio could break the spending record for Senate races. The race in Montana will go down in history as the most expensive Senate race ever, measured per vote. And late in the game, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a Republican Party stronghold where the party has new hope of unseating the two-term conservative senator. Ted Cruza disruption that could help them protect their majority.

Republicans need to win two seats to capture a surefire majority, and one of them – West Virginia – is all but in the bag for the GOP.

Other varieties are more volatile and less predictable.

For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in tough states. Losses by incumbents could amount to an extinction-level event for Democrats representing reliably Republican states.

The elections will also test the strength of both parties Wisconsin, Michigan And Pennsylvaniathe key presidential battleground states known as the Blue Wall because of their relatively reliable Democratic voting history. Victories there by Republicans would dramatically change the Senate playing field.

All told, data from AdImpact, a political ad tracking company, predicts that more than $2.5 billion will be spent on advertising in Senate races in this two-year campaign cycle, slightly more than the 2022 total.

That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania and $280 million in Montana, with a population of 1.1 million, or less than one-tenth the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was that of the Democrats Johannes Ossoff the victory in a Georgia contest that went to a runoff in 2021 and decided on Senate control, according to data from the campaign finance tracking organization Open secrets.

Generally, campaign strategists say it’s a Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump votes in favor of his party’s Senate candidates in Senate battleground states, while Democratic candidates in those states vote in favor of their presidential candidate, Kamala Harris.

That means there is a segment of voters who could vote for Trump but not support Republicans in the Senate races — or who could split their ticket with Democratic Senate candidates.

Such splits have been rare. In Maine, voters backed the Democrat in 2020 Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican senator. Susan Collinsfor example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s top super PACs to spend until Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races. but also Nevada And Arizonawhere Republicans are encouraged by strong early voting numbers.

Republicans are most confident in flipping the seat in deep-red, Republican-leaning Montana Tim Sheehy challenges third-term Democratic senator. Jon Tester. They are also optimistic about reliably red Ohio, where there are Republicans Bernie Moreno challenges third-term Democratic senator. Sherrod Brown.

Torunn Sinclair, a spokesman for a pair of Republican super PACs, said one — American Crossroads — is raising $2.8 million from Montana, while the pair is pouring several million more into Pennsylvania.

There, Republican David McCormick is trying to unseat the three-term Democratic senator. Bob Casey in a presidential battleground undercard that both sides say is close.

McCormick, a former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, has delivered the message in two debates that Casey is “certain” to support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.

In recent days, Casey began running an ad in conservative areas touting his “greedy” legislation in pursuit of price gouging. The ad states “Casey has opposed Biden to protect fracking” and “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs.

Republicans say Casey’s ad showing Trump is similar to a TV ad that Senator John Trump ran. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin airs and speaks to both Democrats’ need to protect themselves from Harris’ vulnerability in their states.

“They’re hoping to take away enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.

Yet Casey ran a similar ad in the 2018 midterm elections, when he won easily — even though Trump was not mentioned in that ad — while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long divided with Democrats by opposing free trade deals and projects in the field of fossil fuels.

Democrats, on the other hand, say they are forcing competitive contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Texas Nebraska. Driving Republican incumbents out of one or both seats could help Democrats achieve at least a 50-50 split in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.

In Texas, U.S. Rep. Colin Allreda former professional football player, has proven adept at soliciting small-dollar donations in his challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Allred has outraised all Senate candidates nationally except Tester and Brown.

The ad spend advantage for Allred has been 3 to 2, according to AdImpact, with the Democratic-leaning Senate Majority PAC touting a new seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate $5 million TV ad buy Attacking Cruz on an important issue for Democrats, namely abortion rights.

Moreover, the Democrats hope Harris’ meeting in Houston on Friday with Allred and Beyoncé can help Allred by increasing black voter turnout.

In Nebraskaindependent Then Osborn — a tattooed former labor leader who supports abortion rights — appears to have consolidated Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads with Republicans, Democratic strategists say.

Although Osborn is running as an independent candidate and has not said which party he is working with, he is receiving support from a liberal super PAC that has helped him gain a significant spending advantage over the Republican senator. Deb Fischer.

In both states, Republicans acknowledge they have had to spend unexpected money to shore up their incumbents’ prospects, but they also say they expect to win comfortably.

In Ohio, Brown has tried to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his own ads and speaking directly to the camera.

“I’m Sherrod Brown and I have a question,” Brown says, looking into the camera and leaning his elbow on what might be a woodworking table. “Have you ever heard Bernie Moreno talk about what he’s going to do? Ohio?”

Brown also makes a personal appeal to potential swing voters, saying he has spent his career fighting for workers and veterans and working with law enforcement officials and “presidents of both parties to do what is best for our state.”

Elsewhere, strategists expect a first term Florida Sen. Rick Scott will fend off a challenge from the Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and that Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in deep blue Maryland will defeat the former governor. Larry Hogan to fill a seat vacated by Democratic Senator Ben Cardin.

___

Associated Press reporter Julie Carr Smyth in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report. Follow Marc Levy twitter.com/timelywriter.