Harris, Trump polls predict who will win the presidential election

The 2024 general election is Tuesday, and early election and mail-in voting statistics show that more than 6 million voters in Florida have already voted. Their decisions have been made, but millions more will vote and we won’t know the outcome of the presidential election for days.

Two months of national polling showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead, while former President Donald Trump gaining ground and even took the lead in some of the crucial swing states that will likely determine the race.

Here it is what the polls and the odds say now with just days left — and how they’ve changed over the past two months — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

Who is now leading in the polls and is now favored by the odds?

ABC News Project 538 shows that in the national polls Harris has a 48% lead over Trump 46.7% – compared to Harris 48.1% last week over Trump 46.4%, compared to Harris 48.5% compared to Trump 46.1% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48% compared to Trump 47.3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% compared to Trump 45.8 % four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% compared to Trump 45.6% five weeks agocompared to Harris 48.3% compared to Trump 45.3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% compared to Trump 44.4% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% compared to Trump with 43.9% eight weeks agoor compared to Harris 47.0% compared to Trump with 43.7% nine weeks ago.
270towing shows Harris leading in national polls by 0.8% over Trump – up from 1.5% over Trump last week.
realclearpolling shows betting odds have changed in Trump’s favor with +0.5% spread on Harris – compared to Harris on Trump at +0.1 last week.
PolymarktA The crypto trading platform signals growing expectations from the gambling public, favoring Trump 63.7% versus Harris 36.1% – compared to last week’s Trump 61.3% versus Harris 38.9%.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These figures are shown as of Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 11:10 am

How accurate have the election odds or polls been in the past presidential elections?

The betting favorite has alone lost twice since 1866according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The track record in elections is more challenging because different pollsters who survey different target groups can often have higher margins of error.

According to Pew ResearchConfidence in opinion polls has suffered from the mistakes in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In both general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.

Is it too late to register to vote in Florida?

If you are a registered voter, you can still vote early in most counties until Saturday, November 2, and in others until Sunday, November. If you are not registered to vote, the deadline was October 7 for the 2024 general election.