Air Force vs. Army Predictions and Picks – College Football Week 10

This isn’t your grandma’s game against the Service Academy as the Air Force Falcons visit West Point this weekend to take on the Army Black Knights.

The Black Knights and Midshipmen have explosive offenses and the Falcons do not. That means we get an abnormally high total for a Service Academy matchup. But is it high enough to support our favorite sports betting trend?

My Air Force and Army predictions say approximately, and bring you the best college football choices for this Service Academy showdown on Saturday, November 2 with a noon ET kickoff on CBS.

Air Force vs Army Prediction and Best Bet

My best choice
Under 21.5 first half total (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

For the uninitiated. The Under is 44-10-1 (81.5%) in the last 55 meetings between Service Academy programs.

What has made the Service Academy Under trend so successful over the years, in its simplest form, is that all three teams use some form of the triple option and run the ball about 80% of the time, which constantly milks the clock . At the same time, these programs know how to best defend those plays, resulting in a lot of short runs.

Furthermore, sportsbooks were almost unable to set the totals low enough for these matchups to achieve a balanced amount of action on both sides.

Now a major variable has been added to the mix in 2024, and that is the explosive nature of the Army and Navy offenses. While both programs still control the ball more than anyone in the country, when they throw the ball they throw the ball down the field. The Army ranks first in the nation in EPA/dropback, while the Navy ranks eighth.

We saw that in Navy’s 34-7 victory over Air Force on Oct. 5 in a game that went over the final score of 37.5.

The other variable is that Air Force looks like one of the worst teams in the country, ranking 125th in the EPA margin. The combination of these variables means we are seeing the highest total in a Service Academy matchup since 2020.

The total for this weekend’s Air Force-Army game stands at 41.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

Now Army has a chance to take over this game themselves, but I still believe the style of this matchup suggests we’ll see another Under.

Although the Air Force gave up 34 points to the Navy during that Oct. 5 meeting, two of those Navy scores came from unlikely explosive plays. One on a fourth down, where the Falcons defender just had to control himself. Instead, it was a touchdown. Then another touchdown was set up by an incredible sideline catch, and the game still needed a TD to go Over midway through the fourth.

Additionally, Air Force isn’t likely to score much, as the Falcons rank 127th in EPA/play and 122nd in offensive success rate, going up against an Army defense that has limited opponents to 14 points or fewer in six of seven games.

That said, the Army attack scares me a little here, because Bryson Daily and Co. have been great. So I’m going to change it up a bit and take the first half Under.

The Air Force can fight for a while, but the longer the game goes on, the more likely the Army attack will strike and possibly upset this game.

(Give us a total of 50 for Army-Navy!)

Air Force vs Army Same Game (SGP)

Less than 21.5 in total in the first half

Casey Reynolds anytime TD

Total Air Force Team Less than 9.5

Daily has been so great this season that BetMGM isn’t giving us an anytime touchdown option for the Black Knights quarterback in this Service Academy matchup. In fact, at no point do they give us touchdown drinks for Daily, top running back Kanye Udoh or super utility back Noah Short.

Instead, I’ll look at the Black Knights’ biggest threat, Casey Reynolds. The 6-foot-1 burner is the definition of a deep threat, averaging 29.3 yards per reception. He has scored three times this season and appears to be the best option among those available to find the end zone in this game.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have a young offensive line that doesn’t work well as a triple option, and it has clearly shown. Air Force is shooting for just 3.7 yards per carry this season, which ranks 100th in the nation. As a result, the Falcons have reached 20 points against FBS opponents just once this season and have been held to seven points or fewer three times. Add the Air Force Under 9.5 team total to this SGP.

Learn how to parlay on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Air Force vs. Army Opportunities

Air Force vs Army live odds

Air Force vs. Army Opening Odds

• Air Force vs. Army Spread: Army -23.5
• Air Force vs. Army Moneyline: Air Force +1,600, Army -5,000
• Air Force vs. Army Top/Bottom: 40

Opportunities courtesy of BetMGM

Air Force versus Army Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Army opened as 23.5-point favorites, but Air Force has seen the early action and the spread dropped to 22.5.
• The general rule of thumb in sports betting is to take the underdog with a total that low, and we could see that here. The underdog has covered the spread eight times in a row in this matchup, with the largest spread last season being Army as an 18-point pup.
• The total came to the board at an even 40 and it was the Over who saw the early money, pushing the number up to 42 before an Under money brought it back to 41.5.
• The last time we saw a total higher than 40 in this matchup was in 2020, when it finished at 47.5.

Betting trend between air force and army to know

The Under are 10-0 in the last 10 Air Force-Army meetings. Find more college football betting trends for air force versus army.

Game information Air Force vs. Army

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Air Force vs Army Weather

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