Which countries are about to start using nuclear energy?

Following Israel’s attack on Iranian energy facilities on October 26, 2024, Iran promised to respond with “all available resources”, raising fears that it could soon produce a nuclear weapon that would pose a more credible threat. The country’s breakout time – the period it would take to develop an atomic bomb – is now estimated within weeksand Tehran could continue to arm if it believes so or its proxies lose ground to Israel.

Iran is not the only country that has improved its nuclear capabilities in recent years. In 2019The US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which banned intermediate-range land-based missiles, citing alleged Russian violations and China’s non-involvement. The US is too modernizing its nuclear arsenalof plans to use nuclear weapons in more NATO states and proposals to expand the nuclear umbrella to Taiwan.

Russia has done that too strengthened its nuclear posture and expanded nuclear military exercises And updating its nuclear policy upon first use. In 2023 it is participation suspended in the New START missile treaty, which limited the use of nuclear weapons and delivery systems by the US and Russia, and stationed nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2024. Russia and China have done that too deepens their nuclear cooperationThis puts China on a path to rapidly expand its arsenal, as nuclear security cooperation with the US has done steadily decreased in the past decade.

The breakdown of diplomacy and increasing nuclear mismanagement among the major powers increases mutual nuclear uncertainty, but also risks sparking a new nuclear arms race. In addition to Iran, numerous countries maintain the technological infrastructure to rapidly build nuclear weapons. Preventing nuclear proliferation would require significant cooperation among the great powers, a prospect that is currently out of reach.

The US detonated the first nuclear weapon in 1945, followed by the Soviet Union (1949), Great Britain (1952), France (1960), and China (1964). It became clear that countries were increasingly able to produce nuclear weapons thanks to access to uranium and enrichment technology. Although mass production and delivery capacity posed additional hurdles, it was widely expected in the early Cold War that many states would soon join the nuclear club. Israel developed nuclear capabilities in the sixtiesIndia has detonated its first bomb in 1974and South Africa built its first by 1979. Other countries, including Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Sweden, EgyptAnd Switzerlandran their own programs.

However, the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), enacted in 1968 to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, led many countries to abandon or dismantle their programs. After the end of the Cold War and under Western pressure, Iraq ended its nuclear program in 1991, and South Africa, in a historic move, voluntarily dismantled its arsenal in 1994. Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine have given up the nuclear weapons they inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union by 1996and in return secure international security guarantees.

The proliferation of nuclear weapons seemed to be a declining concern, but cracks soon appeared in the non-proliferation framework. Pakistan conducted its first nuclear test in 1998followed by North Korea in 2006bringing the number of nuclear weapon states to nine. Since then, Iran’s nuclear weapons program, started in the 1980s, has been a major target of Western non-proliferation efforts.

Iran has good reason to continue. Ukraine’s former nuclear arsenal might have deterred Russian aggression in 2014 and 2022, while Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, who dismantled the country’s nuclear program in 2003was overthrown in 2011 by a coalition led by NATO and local forces. If Iran achieves a functional nuclear weapon, the country will lose the ability to leverage its nuclear program. negotiation chipmake concessions in negotiations. While a nuclear weapon would represent a new form of leverage, it would also increase pressure from the US and Israel, both of which have been engaged in a cycle of escalating, sometimes deadly, confrontations with Iran and its allies in recent years.

An Iranian nuclear arsenal could also spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Relations with Saudi Arabia remain fragile despite the crisis 2023 détente, mediated by Chinaand Saudi officials have done so before indicated they would obtain their own nuclear weapon if Iran were to acquire it. Saudi Arabia gave significant support to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, with the understanding that Pakistan could extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, or even deliver the latter one of which is on request.

Turkey, which harbors American nuclear weapons through the NATO sub-programmeushered in a policy change in 2019 when President Erdogan criticism of foreign powers for dictating Turkey’s ability to build its own nuclear weapon. Turkey’s growing partnership with Russia in the field of nuclear energy could, in the meantime, provide the country with the enrichment expertise needed to ultimately do this.

Tensions in the Middle East are not the only force threatening non-proliferation. Japan’s renewed friction with China, North Korea and Russia over the past decade has intensified Tokyo’s focus on nuclear preparedness. Although Japan developed a nuclear program in the fortiesit was dismantled after the Second World War. Japanese outbreak periodhowever, remains measured in months, but public support for nuclear weapons remains low, given the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, where nuclear bombings in 1945 killed more than 200,000 people.

On the other hand around 70 percent of South Koreans support the development of nuclear weapons. South Korea’s nuclear program began in the 1970s but was discontinued under American pressure. However, North Korea’s successful test in 2006 and its termination economic, politicsAnd physical connections to the South in the past decade, in combination with the abandoning peaceful reunification raised the issue again in South Korea in early 2024.

Taiwan pursued a nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, which ended the same way under American pressure. Any sign of shaky U.S. engagement with Taiwan, along with China’s growing nuclear capabilities, could prompt Taiwan to revive its efforts. Although less likely, territorial disputes in the South China Sea could also motivate countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines to consider developing nuclear capabilities.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also had significant nuclear consequences. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky recently suggested to the European Council that a nuclear arsenal could be the only deterrent for Ukraine if NATO membership is not offered. Zelensky later walked back his comments after causing a firestorm of controversy. But if Ukraine feels betrayed by its Western partners — especially if it is forced to cede territory to Russia — it could spur some factions within Ukraine to try to secure nuclear capabilities.

The war also led to nuclear considerations throughout Europe. In December 2023, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said supported a European nuclear deterrent. A Trump re-election could heighten European concerns about US commitments to NATO, with France increasingly proposing an independent European nuclear force in recent years.

It is unlikely that the established nuclear powers will welcome more countries into their ranks. But while China and Russia do not necessarily want this outcome, they recognize that the West’s concerns are greater Russia does little in the 1990s to prevent unemployed nuclear scientists from supporting North Korea’s program.

The US has also previously been blinded by the nuclear aspirations of its allies. US policymakers underestimated Australia’s determination to pursue a nuclear weapons program in the future Fifties and Sixtiesincluding secret attempts to obtain a weapon from Britain. The same goes for the US initially unconsciously of France’s extensive support for Israel’s nuclear development in the 1950s and 1960s.

Smaller countries are also able to support each other’s nuclear ambitions. Argentina provided significant support to the Israeli programwhile Israel assisted South Africa’s. Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan’s nuclear development, and Pakistan’s top nuclear scientist is suspected of helping Iran, Libya and North Korea with their programs in the 1980s.

Conflicts involving nuclear weapon states are not without precedent. Egypt and Syria attacked nuclear-armed Israel in 1973, and Argentina faced a nuclear-armed Britain in 1982. India and China have clashed over their border on several occasions, and Ukraine continues to resist Russian aggression. But conflicts with nuclear countries lead to dangerous escalation, and the risk increases if a country with limited conventional military power acquires nuclear capabilities; In the absence of other means of defense or retaliation, the temptation may be greater to resort to nuclear weapons as the only viable option.

The costs of maintaining nuclear arsenals are already high. By 2023, the world’s nine nuclear weapons states are estimated to have spent money $91.4 billion managing their programs. But what incentive do smaller countries have to completely abandon their nuclear ambitions, especially as they observe the protection nuclear weapons provide and witness the major powers intensifying their nuclear strategies?

Obtaining the most powerful weapons in the world may be a natural ambition of the military and intelligence sectors, but it also depends on the political forces in power. In Iran, moderates could provide a counterbalance to hardliners, while continued support for Ukraine could prevent more nationalist forces from coming to power there.

But one more country acquiring a nuclear weapon could trigger a flood of other countries. While larger powers are currently taking the lead on nuclear policy, smaller countries may see an opportunity amid the chaos. The limited support for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weaponsin force since 2021, like the breaking of other international treaties, strengthens the continued appeal of nuclear weapons, even among non-nuclear states. With the great powers in open conflict, barriers to nuclear ambitions are already weakening, making it increasingly difficult to prevent smaller countries from pursuing the ultimate deterrent.

This article was produced by Economy for everyonea project of the Independent Media Institute.