What a Donald Trump victory would mean for the rest of the world

According to the United Nations, 2024 will be “the biggest election year in human history,” with half of the world’s population – some 3.7 billion people in 72 countries – can vote. Still, some elections have more consequences than others, which is why the world is watching as the US goes to the polls.

The US belongs to the world largest economy and the greatest military power. But it is also the hub of many international strategic alliances, the economic and financial system, and many of the world’s liberal institutions.

These elections represent a pivotal moment in American history and could have enormous consequences for the way the country is governed and for the future of the postwar order that Washington helped build.

Unlike any election since 1945, the basic principles of American relations with the rest of the world are at odds. The choice is between Donald Trump’s Republican party, which may offer a complete break with the US role in the international community, compared to Kamala Harris’ more international agenda among the Democrats. Under Harris, the US will probably continue to play an important role in NATO, for example.

Tariffs on China

The most notable attack on US foreign policy tradition is Trump’s plans to impose a universal policy 20% tariff on all foreign imports. Tariffs for China could be much higher due to threats Trump from 60-200%. Such measures are not only inflationary and harmful to the US economy, but are also likely to result in retaliation, trade wars and disruption with the global economy. By restricting access to the world’s largest national market, they would also hinder global efforts to transition to one carbon-free economy.

However, such matters are of little concern to Trump, who plans to repeat his US withdrawal from Washington Paris Agreement on Climate Changeto repeal Joe Biden’s environmental protection measures, and to allow the unrestricted exploitation of US oil and gas resources through deregulated fracking. Trump’s plans would add tons of extra carbon to climate change atmosphere when it is performed and would likely significantly undermine global work on climate change.

Also at stake in the 2024 elections is the US commitment to defend its friends and allies against hostile states. As a member of NATO, the US is obliged to come to the aid of other members on the basis of Article 5if another country attacks them, and also has similar treaties with it Japan and South Korea. The Biden administration led NATO in supporting Ukraine with military and financial assistance to prevent total submission to Russian occupation.

Trump, on the other hand, has indicated that he would end this support and pressure Kiev to accept peace Moscow’s terms. Instead of seeing a network of alliances as the basis of strength and influence, Trump sees them as a source of risk and burden.

Defending friends

Many former officials, such as former national security adviser John Bolton, suspect Trump would try to do that leaves NATO for a second term or weaken its effectiveness through lukewarm support. In Asia, Trump recent comments that “Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company,” suggesting a weakening of U.S. involvement in the island.

For many observers, these elections are also important because they call into question the ability of the US to hold free, fair, and uncontested elections and the peaceful transition of power. From his first involvement in the Republican Party’s primary process in 2016, Trump has never accepted the results of an election campaign election which he lost.

What’s more remarkable is that he convinced a majority of Republican voters to side with him by claiming so the 2020 election was stolenonly a third believe the election was legitimate. When confidence in the electoral process is so undermined, it is difficult to imagine how the US can come together to be governed after the election.

For the Trump camp, however, there is a ready-made answer to this question. If elected, Project 2025a policy paper prepared by a right-wing think tank suggests that his administration would replace the top of Washington’s bureaucracy with 50,000 officials who pledge loyalty to him over the Constitution. It also suggests that a Trump administration would disband many federal agencies, such as the Departments of Justice, Energy and Education, as well as the FBI and Federal Reserve, and use its newly claimed executive power to impose its policy agenda.

Such measures are intended to allow Trump to introduce a series of policies that many consider authoritarian, such as the deportation of millions “illegal aliens,” using the National Guard and the military if necessary.

The American experiment with democracy has fascinated and inspired the world since its inception in 1776. Never before, however, has it seemed to be in such danger. The US is deeply divided on many fundamental issues, from taxes, immigration, abortion, trade, energy and environmental policies to role in the world.

For the first time, these divisions seem more important to many voters than respect for their democratic institutions and traditions. More fundamentally, many American citizens seem unable to accept the outcome of the democratic process and the resulting legitimacy of the winner. Who wins the election and how the US is governed as a result now matters to more people than ever.

Author: David Hastings Dunnprofessor of international politics at the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham

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