Doubling down on ‘too much heat’

A recent headline from Arctic News dated October 4, 2024 points to one of the most important climate-related studies of the year. It describes in detail the global pervasive danger of sea ice loss: Double Blue Ocean event, 2025? It demands attention.

A cursory reading of the climate change literature reveals several mentions of ecosystem degradation or collapse of one kind or another that have occurred in different time frames of this century. In that context, nothing compares to a Double Blue Ocean Event. When this event happens, everything changes. It has the potential to be the “holocaust of climate change,” where an uncontrollable, self-propelled, rapid global temperature increase damages or completely destroys the ecosystems that support life. There is tangible evidence at an early stage that this has started, for example in the Amazon rainforest.

Double Blue Ocean event 2025? is a long, scientifically based essay on the mechanisms, sources and implications of a Double Blue Ocean event already this decade. But as with all climate events, nothing is certain until it happens. The climate can be fickle. Hopefully not, but it doesn’t look good.

A Double Blue Ocean Event occurs when the sea ice of both Antarctica and the Arctic virtually disappears minimum extent of sea ice (a summer seasonal event) fall below one million km², which is classified as a ‘blue ocean event’. According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, since September 2024, Arctic sea ice minimum size amounted to 4.28 million km². The said Arctic News study believes that several factors are aligning that could rapidly accelerate the loss of sea ice extent within a few years.

From another perspective, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by the summer of 2030, even if we do well to reduce emissions between now and then. That is the conclusion of a recent peer-reviewed study Nature communication.

Of course, none of this would happen without excessive amounts of CO2 being released from the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in human thrusters, i.e. greenhouse gases like CO2, that are affecting climate change/global warming >10 times faster than the actual rate of things in nature. This is an established fact.

Antarctica, along with the Arctic, is expected to do so as well range an equivalent sea ice minimum size as early as February 2025. Basically Antarctic sea ice minimum size has remained well below 2.0 million km² over the past three years. It is within striking distance of a Blue Ocean event.

The global impact of low global sea ice extent is driving up global temperatures in multiple ways, far beyond current experience. This involves seven (7) mechanisms that cause global surface temperatures to rise, accelerating the decline in sea ice extent as the pattern becomes self-perpetuating, faster and faster, larger and larger, and self-feeding. Each of the seven mechanisms involves profound changes in (1) snow and ice cover, (2) wind patterns, and (3) ocean currents.

According to Arctic News: “Low sea ice on Earth is currently causing global temperatures to rise in several ways. The global extent of sea ice is now several million km² lower than decades ago, i.e. more than 2.5 million km² lower than the average extent of 2010 and more than 5 million km² lower than the average extent of the 1980s. ” As a result, the global ice cover no longer absorbs or reflects solar radiation efficiently enough to prevent rapid, excessive global warming. This timeless ice kiss that is as old as humanity is now leaving behind the timeless equation of keeping the earth in balance. It’s almost gone, gone forever.

According to Arctic News, the current extent of sea ice dictates a call to arms, i.e. “Climate Emergency Declaration” today, not tomorrow, but today.

Evidence that low global sea ice is already impacting the climate system is found in NASA data from September 2024, which shows global temperatures more than 1.5°C above the 1903-1924 baseline for 15 consecutive months ; however, compared to the actual (much older) pre-industrial base, it is even higher. This exceeds anything the nations of the world agreed to at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, and surprise, surprise, that’s happening within just a decade of their poorly kept promise to limit CO2 emissions to a pre-industrial temperature of +1.5°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC: “Exceeding 1.5°C could trigger irreversible climate tipping points, such as (1) the collapse of tropical coral reefs, (2) the thawing of permafrost and (3) the collapse of ocean circulation systems .” All three have started collapsing, thawing and breaking down respectively:

1. Coral reefs could pass their point of no return this decade GermanWatch, February 16, 2023

2. Arctic permafrost is now a net source of major greenhouse gasesNewScientist, April 12, 2024.

3. A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that would ‘affect every person on the planet’ CNN, July 26, 2023

The most obvious mechanism influencing and measuring global temperature is the growing energy imbalance or the difference between what Earth absorbs and what Earth reflects in incoming solar radiation to space (Problem #1, the Blue Ocean Event Eliminates the largest reflector on the planet). Ten years ago (2010s) the energy imbalance was +0.81 W/m² (Watts per square meter). Today it is +1.23 W/m² That’s a whopping +52% increase in a geological wink. It’s an earth-shattering increase, spelling problems, in all caps. Clearly, the planet’s energy imbalance is skyrocketing, spiraling out of control, and absorbing far too much heat far too quickly. Humanity is just asking for trouble.

This is what the Arctic News article has to say about the severity of the energy imbalance: “It is clear that political action can and should improve Earth’s energy imbalance, which can and should be achieved through greenhouse gas emissions reduce and take further action by transitions in the areas of energy consumption, agriculture, transport, etc.”

“For years, the IPCC has woven and twisted scientists’ findings into a political narrative that downplays temperature rise and refuses to point out the most effective measures that can be taken to act against climate change, in an attempt to create the illusion that there is and the carbon budget must be distributed among the polluters, as if pollution could continue for decades.” (Arctic news)

Global ice loss – a massive planetary tipping point

The Arctic News article states that civilization as we know it is skating on thin ice due to the hidden impacts and consequences of global ice loss via (1) loss of sea ice in the Arctic (2) loss of permafrost in Siberia and North America (3) loss of sea ice in Antarctica (4) loss of snow and ice in Greenland (5) loss of mountaintop glaciers such as the Tibetan Plateau (6) Patagonian ice fields (7) Andes Mountains and (8) the famous Alps ; all tipping points, when combined, become a gigantic juggernaut of planetary change that no longer serves as a buffer to prevent runaway planetary heat. It is a serious matter that cannot be ignored and requires immediate reduction of CO2 emissions… or else?

In the simplest terms, the massive loss of ice in the world, as well as glaciers, is akin to turning off the air conditioning of an apartment complex in Phoenix, Arizona on a hot 115°F summer day in the middle of the day. In case of ice loss: solar radiation is no longer absorbed, neutralized by ice, nor reflected to space. Then the heat suddenly overwhelms and lingers in the apartment building (proxy for the planet). As a result, 2024’s record temperatures of +1.5°C above pre-industrial times look mild by comparison as degraded ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest lose them.

According to Arctic News: A massive temperature increase could occur soon as the impact of these mechanisms continues to grow latent heat turning points caused by the Double Blue Ocean event which then caused a massive methane tipping point on the sea floor, which entered an insanely hot house on the Earth. The first warning signs of this are present.

“The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to limit damage and improve the situation, as described in this post from 2022where necessary, in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed on this group.” (Arctic news)

All this is reminiscent of philosopher-economist Kohei Saito (University of Tokyo) Capital in the Anthropocene, Shueisha Publishing, 2020: “Capitalism and a healthy planet are intrinsically at odds.” (Source: A carbon-free world is not possible with capitalism, Broadview, March 14, 2024)

What to do?

And there is this: 10/28/2024: “A new report reveals the profound effects of rising temperatures on both the environment and human health. The ’10 new insights into climate science’ highlight how rising global temperatures not only threaten the stability of the oceans and push the Amazon rainforest towards collapse, but also endanger maternal and reproductive health for future generations. The annual synthesis report was launched by a consortium of more than 80 global experts from the social and natural sciences, including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). (Source: 10 new insights into climate science 2024: Heat waves risk ecosystem collapsePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, October 28^e2024)

The prestigious Potsdam Institute’s research into rising global temperatures that are making the planet increasingly uninhabitable confirms the overriding thesis of Arctic News’ research and clearly reinforces calls for immediate steps to halt excessive amounts of greenhouse gases, such as CO2 shout.