How climate voters could influence the presidential election

In the final days before the presidential election, about 2,000 volunteers from across the country are spending hours calling voters in 19 states. Their goal? Get people who care about climate change to the polls, especially those who didn’t show up for the last presidential election.

You might expect this volunteer corps, brought together by the nonprofit Environmental Voter Project, to talk about a particular candidate. After all, Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat who cast the deciding vote for the election, has largest climate bill in congressional history, contrasts sharply with former President Donald Trump, a Republican who rolled back dozens of environmental protections and withdrew the United States from the Paris climate accord. While it is true that most voters who prioritize climate change choose Democratic ticketsEnvironmental Voter Project phone bankers keep their message impartial. In fact, their script doesn’t even mention climate change.

In an election that is expected to be won by a razor-thin margin, it is estimated 8 million Registered voters who care about the environment but did not vote in 2020 could flip entire states, especially states where the race is expected to be tight. The organization found 245,000 registered voters in Pennsylvania who are concerned about climate change but rarely go to the polls.

“Climate voters and new climate voters can absolutely make a difference this fall,” said Nathaniel Stinnett, founder and executive director of the Environmental Voter Project.

Research shows that the climate voters who turned out in 2020 had a meaningful influence on the elections. Climate change was the main factor pushing voters under 45 who previously voted for a third party, if at all, to cast their ballots for President Joe Biden in 2020, according to a Navigator Research Survey. Another analysis of the University of Colorado, Boulderfound that hypothetically Biden would have lost 3 percent of the popular vote if climate change had not played a role in voters’ preferences – enough to tip the election.

Stinnett believes the climate vote could be critical to this year’s presidential elections in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, the three swing states that have the largest share of voters who care about the climate, but are unlikely to, according to the Environmental Voter will vote. Modeling the project. Since 2017, the group reports that it has helped turn more than 350,000 previously inactive voters in Pennsylvania into super-consistent voters — in a state that Biden won by just 80,555 votes in 2020. In contrast, it doesn’t reach voters in Michigan and Wisconsin because there aren’t that many disenfranchised environmentalists in those swing states.

Stinnett said that of the 4.8 million “potential climate voters” that volunteers are targeting in 19 states, nearly 350,000 of them have cast early ballots, which Stinnett sees as a promising sign. That includes 45,000 new climate voters in Georgia and more than 33,000 in North Carolina.

Anyone who considers climate change a top priority is considered a climate voter. But some segments of Americans are more likely to belong to this group than others: Democrats, women, young people, Black people, and those with heritage from Asia and the Pacific Islands. “If you’re more likely to directly feel the effects of toxic air, toxic water and extreme weather, then you’re likely to become more concerned about the climate crisis and environmental problems,” Stinnett said.

Of course, climate voters also have other concerns. That’s why volunteers from the League of Conservation Voters have knocked on 2.5 million doors across the country, asking potential voters what’s important to them, and then explaining how that issue relates to climate change. “You know, we try to tell them what’s important — that may matter, but it’s usually much less effective than asking someone what he or she cares about,” said Pete Maysmith, senior vice president of campaigns at the environmental organization. About 75 percent of voters the group spoke to say they plan to vote for Harris, who the League of Conservation Voters has chosen. endorsed.

The group is also working to reach voters online, working with TikTok personalities to reach younger voters and creating digital ads that run on platforms like Hulu and YouTube. One TikTok video shows the “Queen of WaterTok” baking macarons decorated with Kamala Harris’ face as he talks about the vice president’s efforts to tackle pollution. In a completely different approach, a new one digital advertisement shown to voters in Georgia and North Carolina in the wake of Hurricane Helene, conveys the stakes of the presidential election by illustrating how climate-enhanced storms could threaten babies born today. While you’re living through a fire, flood, or hot weather, that’s usually the case only a small effect on the way people voteit is possible that a disaster can make a difference in a close race.

The Environmental Voter Project has another method for attracting climate-conscious voters to the polls. The group has not endorsed any candidate, and they are not talking to voters about climate change at all. Instead, the group uses tactics rooted in behavioral science to get people to vote, harnessing the power of peer pressure – like emailing them their voting history and reminding them it’s public. They also asked voters how they plan to vote — early, by mail or before Election Day — framing the question in a way that sidesteps the option not to vote.

“All we’re trying to do,” Stinnett said, “is change someone’s behavior, rather than his or her thoughts.”