Bellwether Michigan County in the spotlight as parties seek votes

SAGINAW TOWNSHIP, Mich. – Lillian Bandy is the kind of voter both parties would like to have in their corner. And they all still can.

Bandy, 60, is a truant officer for the city of Saginaw’s public school system in a Democratic stronghold that is the seat of retiring Rep. Dan Kildee’s power base. She will likely vote for the Democrat vying to succeed Kildee in the 8th Congressional District, says Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, citing commercials she has seen about Rivet’s “millionaire” GOP opponent, Paul Junge.

The problem for Democrats: Bandy, who is black, is not a direct voter.

She is unsure about the Senate race between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. She cast her vote for former President Donald Trump four years ago and may do so again, though she is pushing back on his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

“If you lose, lose gracefully,” Bandy said in an interview outside a home improvement store north of the city. “To do what he did, if he did it, I know he was part of it.”

But Vice President Kamala Harris has failed to win over this disgruntled Trump voter. Bandy said Democrats have focused too much on LGBTQ rights and not enough on pocketbook issues.

“We can’t even get good health care and we’re giving (tax money) to people who want sex changes?” she said.

Bandy also took issue with Harris’ recent comment that she couldn’t think of anything else she would do than President Joe Biden, including on inflation.

“Why haven’t you lowered food prices?” Bandy said. “I know her hands were tied making a lot of big decisions, but she never said anything.”

Saginaw may be the most contentious county in one of the tightest swing states heading into Election Day. If Harris cannot repeat Biden’s narrow 2020 victory here, her chances of winning are significantly reduced. That’s why Harris was in Hemlock, Michigan, on Monday which touts a subsidy for semiconductor production granted under a 2022 law that Biden signed.

It is still believed that Harris will dominate the black vote in Michigan and nationally. But Trump’s strength relative to the Republican Party’s past performance, which some attribute to culture war arguments, is worrying for Democrats.

A 70-year-old black man who would give only his first name while speaking outside a Lowe’s in another shopping center north of the city provides some evidence of this.

Although “Louis” will not vote for Trump, he would rather sit out this election than vote Democratic, as he has done in the past. He cited Harris’ positions on “gay marriage and things like that” as a reason he won’t support the vice president.

Louis has seen the same television commercial as Bandy about Harris supporting gender-affirming surgeries for prisoners, and like Bandy, he doesn’t like it. In those commercials, “Harris talks about having money for gays to change genders in prison and things like that. I’m absolutely against that,” Louis said. “That’s a waste of taxpayer money.”

Fact checkers in the media have done that pointed out this policy is required under federal law as interpreted by the courts, which even the Trump administration recognized. But the ads for transgender prisoners are clearly breaking through with a certain group of voters, which is not good news for Harris.

Up for grabs

Saginaw County follows familiar recent voting patterns. The city of Saginaw votes Democratic; the less populated areas further away vote Republican; and suburbs like Saginaw Township, where Bandy was shopping Monday, are up for grabs.

(Central Michigan will have a central role in elections)

It hasn’t always been this way: Trump changed the game in an area that in the past was part of the Democrats’ famous “blue wall.” He defeated Hillary Clinton by 1.2 points in Saginaw County in 2016 on his way to winning the state by a nose; Biden reversed that outcome in 2020, helped by a slim 0.3 percent margin in Saginaw County. It was the tightest result in Michigan four years ago and the second narrowest eight years ago.

There has been more nuance in voting. Democrats in the House of Representatives — especially Kildee, a veteran lawmaker with name recognition whose uncle, Dale, also represented the area — performed better than Clinton in Saginaw County, and worse than Biden four years ago.

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., outperformed Biden in 2020, while both Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Kildee — who was running against Junge at the time — handily won the county two years ago when a constitutional amendment was signed. Also the right abortion was on the agenda.

In Michigan, abortion policy remains a driving force, especially among Harris supporters, who said they blame Trump’s Supreme Court appointees who overturned Roe v. Wade and support the passage of a federal law allowing abortion in every state.

Julie Gittins, 65, said her main issue is “choice.” The Saginaw Township resident voted for Biden four years ago and this time on a straight Democratic ticket.

Cultural issues drive both sides. Harris supporters cited LGBTQ and women’s rights, as well as threats to democracy, as top concerns.

Kristine Sparks, 47, a Harris voter who lives in the city of Saginaw, said she voted for Trump in 2016 and was disappointed. “I really wanted that change that he promoted.” But instead, he has only “divided the country,” she said.

Sparks, who works at Dow Inc. who works in customer service, said she has shifted her party allegiance from Republican to Democratic in recent years on LGBTQ and women’s rights.

Becky Anaman, a former supporter of Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, is thrilled with Harris, calling her “amazing.”

As for Trump? “He’s a convicted felon,” said the Saginaw Township resident, who is retired from the retail industry. ‘He’s lying. I think he’s completely out for himself. He wants to stay out of prison, that’s clear.”

‘All the way down’

Interviews with more than two dozen voters in Saginaw’s northern suburbs revealed why the county is swinging back and forth. Neither party had a clear advantage among residents interviewed for this report, although a trend emerged of voters having less information about the House and Senate races and focusing on the presidential contest.

While Sparks clearly remembered voting for Harris, she needed some prompting to remember the name of Slotkin, whom she voted for in the Senate. As for the House race, Sparks couldn’t remember a name, but “I’m pretty sure it was Democrat,” she said.

The opposite is true for Joanne McCallum, a retired teacher in her 80s who still provides substitute teaching. “I’ve gone all Republican,” she said. McCallum voted early for Trump because of his positions on abortion and her belief that Democrats were “failing the middle class.”

Brian Brown, 56, who drives a Zamboni to clear the ice at hockey games, said he will vote straight Republican because it is a matter of “evil versus good.”

“We can’t have another four years of all this negative influence and this economy that has gone to hell because of the Democrats and their way of thinking,” said Brown, a resident of Bridgeport, Michigan, southeast of the city of Saginaw.

Adam Coggan, a 56-year-old former Marine Corps sniper, voted early for Trump, arguing that “he has done a better job for our country than Biden ever has.” He also cited the current president’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan as a reason to oppose his would-be Democratic successor as commander in chief.

“We can’t continue the way we are going,” said Lisa Young, 55, a nurse who works at a surgical center in Saginaw Township. “I’m just scared for my grandchild the way things are going. They don’t know what gender they are. They no longer know which bathroom to use. It just gets crazy out there.”

Young, who was on track to vote early for Trump, also supported the former president in 2016 and 2020. She lives in neighboring Tuscola County, which leans more heavily Republican, but was shopping Tuesday at a Party City store just above the province. line.

“When (Trump) came in, my paycheck went way beyond that and the borders were secure,” Young said. “I just feel like we were much safer. And I think foreign countries respected him much more than the current president.”

‘Common sense’ approach versus ‘politeness’

Jacob Hyde, a student from Birch Run, south of Saginaw, was shopping at a Cabela’s in the northern suburbs on Monday. Hyde said the border and rising prices are big issues for him. “I’m a student; it is sometimes difficult to get groceries,” he said.

Hyde said he can’t vote for Harris, but he doesn’t like Trump’s personality — even though he agrees with many of Trump’s policies — and might instead cast a protest vote for Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver .

Ed Ken, a chemical engineer who emigrated from East Africa, likes some of Trump’s policies, such as his “common sense” approach to regulation. But he stands firmly behind Harris and other Democrats on the issue of “civility.”

“We need a leader who will demonstrate dignity in that office,” said the Saginaw Township resident, who is in his late 30s. Ken also takes issue with what he said: Trump’s bad mouthing of immigrants.

“We are actually contributing a lot to this country, making it innovative, making it stronger, not weakened, (through) innovations and ensuring that the U.S. continues to lead the world in every field,” Ken said.

A retired arborist from Saginaw Township, who, like Louis, would give only his first name, sums up the type of persuasive centrist voter this election will be about.

“Dan” said he will likely vote for Harris and other Democrats, even though he worries about “how do you pay for these things” Harris has proposed.

“I think we have too many giveaway programs and people are not willing to go to work,” he said.