Kamala Harris is closing in, Trump is struggling in a tight US presidential race

I said Kamala Harris would be a formidable candidate on the summer day, President Joe Biden stepped aside in the 2024 presidential race and endorsed her.

My reasons included Harris’ deep ties to influential historically black institutions as a graduate of Howard University and member of Alpha Kappa Alpha Inc.; its strength among women and younger voters; and her background as a prosecutor in a match against a man in trouble with the law.

Since then, I have seen the Vice President, former U.S. Senator, and former Attorney General of California leverage these assets. During Harris’ ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket, the Divine Nine – the leading black Greek letters organizations – released a joint statement saying they would be working for her. A Black Women for Harris fundraiser emerged on social media, followed by several similar efforts, including White Dudes for Harris.

Opinion: I was at Trump’s town hall in Fayetteville. It wasn’t like Trump in 2016.

I have seen how Harris and running mate Tim Walz have improved their party’s standing among women, young people and minority voters. She has even dramatically improved her numbers among black men, who some polls showed were less sold on Harris’ candidacy.

Meanwhile, she has raised $1 billion in fundraising in the three months she has been in the race.

Election Day is approaching on Tuesday, November 5, and tens of millions of Americans – including myself – have already voted. (Early voting and same-day registration in North Carolina runs until Saturday at 3 p.m.)

The race remains statistically even, especially here in the swing state of North Carolina, where two recent polls from Elon University and WRAL show exact ties.

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But I have a feeling that Harris is closing on a good note and that Trump is looking for a winning message. Which campaign turns out his voters will determine the election.

This is why I think the vice president’s momentum lasts more than a moment and could lead her to victory.

Kamala Harris’ message on abortion wins

Harris’s strong defense of reproductive rights comes in the wake of that of the U.S. Supreme Court Dobbs concludes that ended Roe v. Wade’s federal protection of abortion. She has spent some of her campaign fortune crafting messages on social media and in traditional media that provide clear illustrations the dangers women face after Roe was overturned.

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This is one reason why I think Harris is on track to gain significant support from white women for a Democratic candidate – polls show her trailing Trump in this demographic by three to four points, while Trump is trailing Biden by twelve points is over. In the meantime, I predict Harris will win. 95% of black women, and that’s not a typo.

The gender gap in this race is broad: women support Harris 53% to 36% and men support Trump 53% to 37%, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

But if you’re a gambler, you might want to transfer your chips to the women. They’ve been steady vote men out during the early voting period.

In North Carolina, where both party and unaffiliated voters have voted heavily, female voters have a 10-point lead over men, 52% to 42%. according to numbers from the NC State Board of Elections. That gender gap is consistent with national early voting numbers.

Harris is doing well among older Americans versus Trump – for a Democrat

I also think Harris will win over a majority of older Americans, a rare occurrence for Democratic presidential candidates these days. She persists a slim lead more than Trump in the group over 65 years old, according to recent opinion polls.

Biden had already closed the gap with seniors during his 2020 victory over Trump, bringing the gap to three points – from nine with Hillary Clinton and six with Barack Obama. according to reporting in The New Republic.

I believe most seniors find Harris’s vision of the presidency to be less chaotic than Trump’s bleak worldview. They probably also appreciate the positive and ambitious way she talks about our country. It sounds familiar and feels better.

Will Republicans make a difference for Harris?

Then there are the Republicans. Harris saw an opportunity in the growing number of Republicans opposed to Trump for several reasons, including fears that he will overthrow democracy. These GOP defectors include staunch conservatives like former Rep. Liz Cheney, who campaigned with Harris and Trump’s former chief of staff, retired four-star general John Kelly, who said recently Trump would rule like a dictator and meets the definition of ‘fascist’. More than 100 Republican officials signed a public letter in support of Harris.

Traditionally, presidential candidates in both parties draw about 10% of the other party on Election Day. Harris wants to do better, leading Trump 51% to 46% in a recent ABC News poll.

American voters who join a party sometimes flirt with switching parties during a campaign, but return home come election time. In this election cycle, many Republicans are effectively homeless, separated from their beloved party by Trump and his dangerous rhetoric, criminal record, corrupt business practices, sexual assault allegations and his dangerous rhetoric. recordings, inveterate mendacity and long-standing ribald behavior.

GenZ is preparing a shock for the American electorate

I still think GenZ is underestimated, both in polls and in political conversations. Nearly 41 million of them, aged 18 to 27, will be eligible to vote they vote at higher rates than previous generations of young people.

They’re going to shock the world with how big they vote this time. Harris is a top contender among these voters, with a 20 to 30 point lead over Trump.

Nevertheless, I speak to old politicians who are skeptical when I mention the enthusiasm of young voters.

“Yes, but are they going to vote?” is a common counterpoint.

To which I quickly respond: “This time, yes.”

Trump’s dark election strategy and the lies that accompany it

It is not without reason that Harris benefits from these diverse groups. Her personal story of growing up in the middle class in both black and Indian cultures has resonated, despite the statements of her opponent Donald Trump. tries to grind it down.

Her message of expanding child care, helping people start businesses and buy homes is simply more appealing than the apocalyptic America Trump paints.

His campaign has twisted into even darker and fractured shapes in the home stretch. He freely beat up immigrants and spread out useless lies about federal disaster relief as our fellow North Carolinians already suffered after Hurricane Helene.

He has continued to sow doubt about the American elections and always talks America down. In a recent speech in the swing state of Arizona, Trump declared that when it comes to immigration, the US is the best “garbage bin for the world.”

Harris, Trump and two different views at the Ellipse in DC

What a contrast Harris presented during her performance on Tuesday evening “closing argument” at the Ellipse in Washington, DC She returns to DC on Tuesday evening, to Howard University, to check out the returns.

Last Tuesday, she chose the same spot where Trump incited the deadly riots and failed insurrection of January 6, 2021.

“Just because someone disagrees with us does not make them the ‘enemy within,’” Harris said, referring to Trump’s exact description of his fellow Americans. “They are family, neighbors, classmates, colleagues. They are fellow countrymen. And as Americans, we rise and fall together.

“For too long, America has been consumed by too much division, chaos and mutual distrust, and it can be easy to forget a simple truth. It doesn’t have to be this way. It doesn’t have to be this way.”

Opinion Editor Myron B. Pitts can be reached at [email protected] or 910-486-3559.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Opinion: Harris’ closing argument about Trump in the election is a winner