Avalanche Must Survive Injury Crisis to Save Stanley Cup Dream – The Hockey Writers – Colorado Avalanche

The story of the Colorado avalancheThe 2024-2025 season has been a season of series so far. The team initially struggled out of the gate, losing four straight games in regular rules to open the campaign while being outscored 25-13. A 4-3 win against the Anaheim Ducks started a five-game winning streak in which they outscored their opponents by a 22-11 margin and returned the Avalanche to a playoff spot.

Now a pair of 5-2 losses to the Chicago Blackhawks and the Tampa Bay Lightning have started another losing streak and pushed the team out of the playoffs once again, with their 5-6-0 record and .455 points. percentage (PTS%) in the bottom half of the league-wide rankings.

Related: The Colorado Avalanche can afford a slow start to the 2024-2025 NHL season

The Avalanche’s fearsome triumvirate of defenseman Cale Makar (four goals and 19 points in 11 games), reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan Mackinnon (five goals and 18 points in 11 games) and the sharp-shooting Mikko Rantanen (four goals and 15 points in 11 games) have led the way, but it hasn’t been enough to overcome Colorado’s shortcomings elsewhere.

While goalkeeper Alexandar Georgiev’s struggle is well documentedan injury crisis has been the main cause of the Avalanche’s on-ice misfortunes. If the team can’t wade through uncertain waters and emerge unscathed, a new season that started with dreams of winning the second Stanley Cup in this core will end in frustrating disappointment – ​​let’s dive in.

Avalanche lineup decimated by injury crisis

While the Avalanche are already among the league leaders in games lost, adjusting for the caliber of absent players paints an even bleaker picture. Only the basement house San Jose Sharks ranked worse by cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) – the per-game limit of a player who misses a game due to injury or illness – according to NHL Injury Viz. The current list of players who are injured or unavailable is long and littered with big names.

Captain Gabriel Landesog has not played since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final and still has no clear timetable for his return after a long road to recovery. Valeri Nichushkin does is still serving a six-month suspension that expires in mid-November, but he will need NHL approval before he can return to the Avalanche lineup. Artturi Lehkonen has yet to play this season and has struggled to stay healthy the past two seasons, but was given permission to return on Tuesday (Nov. 5) vs. the Seattle Kraken. Jonathan Drouin played on opening night, suffered an upper body injury and has not played since. However, it is only listed as daily and should be back soon.

Player	Missed matches (2024-25)
Gabriel Landeskog	11
Valery Nichushkin	11
Artturi Lehkonen	11
Jonathan Drouin	10
Devon Toews	4

While the Avalanche received good news about Lehkonen, both Ross Colton (expected to miss six to eight weeks) and Miles Wood (expected to miss seven to 10 days) were reported having suffered injuries that will keep them out of the lineup for at least the next few games. Colton’s absence will particularly sting as the forward sits tied for third in the league with eight goals in 10 games and has provided much-needed attacking support behind the big three.

The problem has become so bad that defenseman Oliver Kylington came on as a forward against the Lightning in a move that was highly emblematic of the team’s luck on the injury front. It’s no surprise that they were defeated 2-0 when he was on the ice at five-on-five.

Insider Elliotte Friedman reported that the Avalanche wants to trade for forwards as players like Ivan Ivan, Joel Kiviranta and Parker Kelly, like Kylington, also take on very high roles in the line-up. Lehkonen (62-point pace), Drouin (57) and Nichushkin (57) have all been key secondary scorers during their time with the Avalanche, so their combined absences have instantly shrunk the team’s depth.

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The lack of forward depth has not hindered the Avalanche’s ability to dictate play, as they created 54.3% of shots, 54.6% of high-risk chances and 54.3% of expected goals at five-a-side -five under control. top 10 marks in the NHL after the first month of play. Being outscored 17-9 with Makar, MacKinnon and Rantanen all off the ice is a horrifying statistic, but it has more to do with the poor play in the crease (.835 team save percentage) than the injuries themselves. That doesn’t provide much certainty, even if the team’s playoff chances remain high.

Both projection models presented by MoneyPuck (73%) and The Athletic (85%) (from ‘NHL 2024-25 Stanley Cup Playoff Odds and Projected Standings’ – Dom Luszczyszyn – The Athletic – 11/01/2024) still believe the Avalanche are more likely to then it won’t be. make the play-offs. It doesn’t provide much comfort during the current time of need, but should remind fans that there are still a lot of runways left.

Trouble ahead for a short avalanche

While an optimist might argue that the Avalanche have done well to tread water during the injury crisis with 71 games remaining, a pessimist might point to the quality of the team’s remaining schedule as a cause for concern.

According to The strength of the schedule (SOS) of Tankathonthe Avalanche still have 26 combined games against the top 10 teams according to PTS%, a total that represents more than a third of their remaining schedule. That total includes a combined seven against the league leader Winnipeg Jets and a Dallas Stars club that eliminated them from last season’s playoffs.

If the Avalanche can stay within striking distance of the playoffs after November, they should be in a good position to compete for one of the Western Conference’s top seeds for the rest of the season. Nine of their 14 games next month will be against teams Ranked 10th or better in the league by PTS%with three of the other five coming up against a pair of disappointing teams that started the season with Stanley Cup aspirations in the Edmonton Oilers (18th with PTS%) and the Nashville Predators (30th).

Many teams over the years have shown that they have had a bad start to the season is not a death knell for Stanley Cup hopes and the Avalanche have shown the ability to dig themselves out of an early hole, but they may need more than historical precedent to successfully overcome the current crisis.

Data courtesy of Evolving hockey, Natural statistical trickand the NHL.