Poll: Did a rainstorm affect the outcome of the BC election?

With the BC NDP narrowly defeating the Conservatives, many small events may have influenced who would ultimately form the government.

Particularly on election day, a atmospheric river brought record-breaking rain to a place already known for its rain: Metro Vancouver.

When VIA surveyed readers, more than nine percent of local readers said the rain affected their voting behavior in BC’s elections. A total of 162 people said it affected their voting behavior.

In Vancouver there is a difference wouldn’t have changed none of the results, but other races nearby were much closer.

Notably, in nearby Surrey-Guildford, the final difference was only 27 votes, in favor of the NDP.

Given how close that constituency was and that the BC NDP has the bare minimum of a majority government, the fact that the rain kept some people from voting could, in theory, have had a significant impact on BC’s political landscape. If the Conservative had won that seat, it would have meant a minority government for the NDP.

Two other nearby constituencies were also in areas badly affected by the storm. Maple Ridge East went to the Conservatives by a narrow margin of 96 votes and Juan de Fuca-Malahat saw the NDP win by a lead of 141 votes.

It’s impossible to say exactly how voters who stayed home because of the rain would have voted, but it’s mathematically possible (and not bad) that the election would have turned out differently.