Michigan football vs. No. 1 Oregon

Opportunities like this don’t come along very often.

After a win over its in-state rival, Michigan (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) is seeking its first victory over a No. 1 team since 1984, when Oregon (8-0, 5-0) entered the Big Ten. House on Saturday. The Wolverines are 3-16-1 all-time against the top-ranked team in the country, with their last win coming against Miami, 22-14, more than 40 years ago.

It will be a tall order for Michigan to get its fourth-ever win against a No. 1 team this weekend. The Wolverines enter this game as a 14.5-point underdog to the Ducks, who are hitting their stride after two subpar performances to start their season. This will be the sixth meeting ever between Michigan and Oregon. The Wolverines have a 3-2 series lead, but the Ducks have won each of the last two.

Below, Michigan Wolverines on SI editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game with Two bold predictions, Game examplesAnd Final score predictions.

1. It will be within one touchdown of the half

Some analysts are convinced that Oregon won’t simply walk into the Big House and cruise to an early victory, and I second that belief. I think Michigan’s defense makes it difficult for the Ducks early, and the game is in a touchdown when the two teams enter the locker rooms at the half.

2. Michigan forces two turnovers

Not only does Michigan have to prevent the ball from being turned over to win this game, but I think the defense will also have to force multiple turnovers after the Oregon offense – and I think they do. Michigan’s secondary will have to play its best game of the season (by far) to give the Wolverines a chance on Saturday, and I think that will result in two interceptions. Whether or not Michigan can capitalize by scoring points off these interceptions is another story.

1. Michigan throws for over 200 yards

This probably seems like an exaggeration, but when you think about Oregon’s offense, it seems possible. The Ducks have one of the best scoring offenses in college football and Oregon can score quickly. This game could go like it did against Texas early this year. If the Ducks get an early lead over Michigan, the Wolverines may have to take to the air to try to win the game. If Davis Warren and Alex Orji have to throw the ball a ton, 200 yards is more than possible.

2. Michigan has zero turnover

Turnovers have been a major problem for Michigan, especially through the air. But last weekend was a welcome change as the Wolverines didn’t turn it over once. This could be a different story if Oregon lets Michigan throw the football. But Davis Warren should feel more confident after last weekend and there’s a lot of talk about playing turnover-free ball by the coaching staff, and I think Michigan will play pretty clean for the most part.

1. Kalel Mullings runs for more than 75 yards with a touchdown

The fifth-year senior is coming off his lowest performance of the season in the win over Michigan State, in which Mullings was held to just 18 yards on 13 carries. Oregon’s defense is stout, but the Ducks showed some sensitivity against the run early in the year. Mullings has received some negative headlines this week after being picked off in last week’s postgame skirmish between the Wolverines and Spartans. It feels like there are some ingredients in place for us to have a big game against the Ducks.

2. Michigan scores first

The Wolverines’ defense has struggled to open possessions, while their offense hasn’t often gotten going quickly. I’ll go a step further and suggest that the trend is reversing in this game. Oregon makes the long trip east, and the Big House should rock early as it welcomes in the No. 1-ranked team in the country. With these factors in place, Michigan jumps out to an early lead on Saturday.

This game will ultimately be decided by a decisive battle between Oregon’s passing attack and Michigan’s secondary attack. While we’ve seen glimpses of greatness from the Wolverine secondary, it’s far more common to see that unit play inconsistently and out of position. There’s no doubt they’ll face their biggest challenge of the season on Saturday against the Ducks, and I’m just not confident enough that they’ll be able to stop Dillon Gabriel from creating big plays through the air — not for four quarters.

Score prediction: Oregon34, Michigan17

Anything can happen on any given Saturday in college football. We saw it this season when Vanderbilt defeated the likes of Alabama. But the Wolverines will need some balls to bounce their way this weekend. Oregon is the No. 1 ranked team for a reason and the Ducks have a very experienced team with a good quarterback behind center, Dillon Gabriel. The Michigan secondary, which has hit a ton this year, will be tested early and often. If Will Johnson can’t play, it could be an even longer day for the maize and blue. If the Wolverines can win this game, it will be because the offense has reached a whole new level and Michigan’s defense is playing its best game of the year – while staying turnover-free. It seems like a tall task for the 2024 Michigan Wolverines.

Score prediction: Oregon31, Michigan17

Part of me feels like Michigan is going to have a tough time against Oregon in this game. Another part knows that the Ducks are more than capable of blowing out the Wolverines if we see UM play like it did against Texas and Illinois. To do this, Michigan must control the clock with its run game and protect the football on offense. Defensively, the Wolverines need their front seven to get behind Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, which is difficult considering the Ducks’ weapons at wide receiver and how quickly Gabriel loses the ball in the pocket. There is a scenario where this game comes down to the last few possessions, but Michigan hasn’t shown enough this season for me to predict that in good faith.

Score prediction: Oregon31, Michigan17

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