Conspiracy theories are the biggest threat to the election, reports show

It’s Extremism Week, from USA TODAY

Federal intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists driven by election-related conspiracy theories as the most likely source of violence in next week’s elections, according to a report. new report from NBC News. That assessment is echoed in two new studies from groups that monitor domestic extremism.

In the meantime, USA TODAY reports about the family of Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, who fear for their lives if former President Donald Trump pardons Rhodes. There is also one great long read about the downfall of a neo-Nazi in rural Maine, and a company sell political data determine whether people support QAnon, the January 6 insurrection, and other far-right causes.

It is extremism week.

Report: Conspiracy-driven domestic extremists pose an election threat

Domestic extremists, driven by complaints of alleged election fraud and conspiracy theories, pose the greatest threat of violence during next week’s election, according to a joint intelligence briefing from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security. This was reported this week by NBC News.

From NBC: “The report identified the potential targets as candidates, elected officials, election workers, members of the media and judges involved in election cases. The potential threats include physical attacks and violence at polling stations, ballot boxes, voter registration locations, and rallies and campaign events.”
This assessment reflects what experts on extremism told USA TODAY. In interviews and conversations with experts from the Anti-Defamation League, the Global project on Hate and Extremism and the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, experts monitoring domestic extremism expressed concern about flare-ups at polling places and especially at vote counting centers in swing states. .
Most of the experts USA TODAY spoke to are in a “wait and see” phase and are concerned about potential flashpoints — especially if promoted by Trump, who infamously called on his supporters to gather at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
While many of the organized groups that formed the backbone of the January 6 uprising have splintered or is disbanded, the possibility of violence remains very real, according to NBC’s intelligence report:
“The United States remains in a heightened, dynamic threat environment and we continue to share information with our law enforcement partners about the threats posed by domestic violent extremists in the context of the 2024 election,” DHS spokesperson Mayra Rodriguez told the network in a statement. .

Reports of extremism also point to election-related violence

Two other reports released this week by groups monitoring domestic extremism also raise the specter of election-related violence in the coming days and weeks.

A new report from the Global project on Hate and Extremism looked at online ‘chatter’ about the election and warns that the rhetoric circulating today mirrors what was seen in the days before the 2020 election.
For example, on the secure messaging platform Telegram, GPAHE noted: “As in 2020, violent rhetoric related to election denial increased by 317 percent over the course of October 2024. Posts on Telegram include the use of election denial to justify an apparently ‘inevitable’ position. civil war” and a call to “Shoot to kill illegal voters.” ”
In the meantime, a new report of Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative outlined a trend that USA TODAY is aware of been supervision of the last two years: Increasing number of threats against government employees, especially election officials.
BDI researchers interviewed more than 150 election officials across the country and concluded: “These conversations have painted a troubling picture of hostility at the local level, but they have also revealed the wide range of tools officials use to respond to threats and intimidation. ”

The family of the Oath Keepers founder was terrified he would be pardoned

A important USA TODAY report this week tells the story of Tasha and Dakota Adams and the family of Elmer Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, who was imprisoned last year for 18 years for seditious conspiracy. Rhodes’ family, who say they lived under his tyranny for decades, is terrified that Trump will be pardoned and seek revenge against them.

Trump has become increasingly bombastic about his plans to pardon the January 6 insurrectionists if he wins next week’s election. His campaign declined to comment on whether he would pardon Rhodes, saying the former president will make decisions “on a case-by-case basis.”
Rhodes, who received the second-longest sentence dating back to Jan. 6, is divorced from Tasha Adams, who accused him of years of physical and mental abuse of her and her six children. Adams and her eldest son fear Rhodes will seek retribution for testifying against him during his prosecution and for past conflicts.
“He’s someone who always had a list of kills,” Adams told USA TODAY, noting that Rhodes kept the list in his head, rather than on paper. “And obviously I’m on this list now, and so are some of my kids, I’m sure.”
Rhodes’ attorneys say there is no evidence that Rhodes poses a danger to Adams.

How a Neo-Nazi Was Driven Out of Maine

Another one great long read this week comes from The Atavist Magazine, which features a story about Nazi Christopher Pohlhaus, also known as “Hammer,” who tried and failed to set up a white supremacist compound in rural Maine.

Pohlhaus was driven out of America’s whitest state thanks to investigative work by journalists, sparking hostility against him among his neighbors.

Polling firm sells database of far-right conspiracy theorists

A political data mining company is selling a voter database that identifies Americans based on their support for far-right conspiracy theories and so-called armed militias. new report from Politico this week.

From the story: “The company, L2 Data, collects a wide network of information about voter preferences on issues such as defense, spending and the economy. But unlike other data companies, L2 also measures or estimates voter support for the most divisive and potentially threatening currents of the far right.”
According to Politico, the information sold by the company has been purchased by politicians from both sides of the aisle.

Statistic of the week: over a fifth

That’s the percentage of U.S. senators considered “at risk” of objecting to certifying the results of next week’s election on Jan. 6, according to new research from the voting rights organization Public Wise.

Public Wise identified 24 sitting senators and seven U.S. Senate candidates who “either voted against certification, publicly announced their plans to vote against certification in 2020, publicly questioned the results of the 2020 or 2022 elections, declined to say whether they would accept the results of the elections.” the 2024 elections, and/or spreading disinformation about voting and elections.”

US TODAY too asked every member of Congress last month whether they would certify the election. Of those who responded, the majority of incumbents pledged to uphold the election results