Early voting data shows a flood of new women and men in key states

Tens of thousands of Americans have already cast their ballots as both parties have pushed for early voting. In reality, Republicans even shattered early election records in some states after being rejected in previous cycles.

While the candidates early voters picked are not yet known, data on who cast those ballots provides clues about the election. According to one NBC News analysisPennsylvania has seen a wave of new Democratic women, while Arizona has seen a wave of Republican men.

In the Keystone State, which is crucial to Kamala Harris’s hopes of winning, 33,874 female Democrats who did not vote in 2020 cast early ballots between October 1 and 28. For new male Democrats, the total is 21,292.

These exceed the number of early voting Republicans who sat out in 2020, with 16,334 women and 16,679 men.

To be fair, not all Democrats will choose Harris, and not all Republicans will choose Donald Trump. Moreover, the number of new voters who have not registered with either party hovers around 8,000 for both men and women, representing a potentially decisive population.

But NBC points out that the total number of new voters in Pennsylvania who cast early ballots is already over 100,000, surpassing Joe Biden’s margin of victory in that state in 2020, when he defeated Trump by 80,555.

Pop superstar Taylor Swift, who grew up in Pennsylvania, could have something to do with the influx of new female voters. After she endorsed Harris in September, it led to a nationwide rush to register to vote.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, Republican men led the way among new early voters. According to NBC, this target group cast 19,901 ballots between October 15 and 28. For Republican women, the number was 16,515. For Democratic men and women, the totals were 10,487 and 13,533, respectively.

But the number of new early voters who do not belong to either party was far greater than in Pennsylvania, creating more uncertainty about Arizona’s final outcome. Male and female Arizonans belonging to that group cast 15,899 and 14,536 ballots, respectively.

Like Pennsylvania, Arizona’s total number of new early voters — nearly 91,000 — easily surpasses Biden’s razor-thin 2020 victory margin of just 10,457.

A key part of Trump’s campaign strategy is mobilizing low-propensity voters, that is, those who do not often participate in elections. That has also translated to some concerns among Republican operatives who don’t see that many people going door to door. By contrast, the Harris campaign has deployed a more conventional game, with offices covering battleground states and an army of paid staff and volunteers.

Polls remain tight in both states. According to the average of 538Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania with 48% each, while Trump leads in Arizona 48.8% to 46.7%.

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