Colts vs Vikings SNF Prop Betting: Taylor Tops Rushing Prop

The Minnesota Vikings look to snap a two-game skid as they welcome the Indianapolis Colts to US Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Colts are moving up and have second-year QB Anthony Richardson taking the place of veteran Joe Flacco.

Mine NFL picks And Colts vs. Vikings Predictions betting on Flacco to make a pick against this blitz-happy Minnesota defense. I also support Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and Vikings running back Justin Jefferson with my top SNF props for Colts vs. Vikings on November 3.

Colts vs Vikings SNF props

Read the full analysis of each pick.

Colts vs Vikings SNF props

Prop bet #1: Jonathan Taylor Over 71.5 rushing yards

-110 at bet365

At first glance, this seems like a match you’d want to fade away Indianapolis foals run back Jonathan Taylor. After all, the Minnesota Vikings leads the league in defensive rushing EPA and holds foes to just 3.9 yards per carry.

That said, with top linebacker Blake Cashman sidelined with a toe injury, the Vikings have been beaten up by running backs over the past two weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 24 carries for 147 yards against Minnesota in Week 7, while Kyren Williams had 23 carries for 97 yards last week.

Additionally, Minnesota has allowed 5.3 yards per carry against interior zone runs, the third-worst rate in the NFL. The Colts run inside the zone on 41% of their rush attempts, which is the second-highest percentage in the league.

Taylor has rushed for more than 85 yards in four straight games, despite facing Top-10 EPA defenses in all of those games. He missed three weeks with an ankle injury, but returned to the lineup last Sunday and carried the ball 20 times for 105 yards against the Texans.

Prop bet #2: Justin Jefferson Longest reception Over 26.5 yards

-115 at bet365

Justin Jefferson is third in the league with 646 receiving yards and he is fresh off a 115-yard performance against the Rams. The All-Pro wideout is a deep threat and has rushed for more than 27 yards in six of seven games this year.

Indianapolis has struggled to defend the pass, ranking 23rd in the league in dropback EPA and 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1). The Colts don’t generate much pressure, giving Vikings QB Sam Darnold plenty of time to throw downfield. The Colts also play zone coverage at the fourth-highest level in the league, allowing Minnesota to match Jefferson alongside undersized corner Samuel Womack III.

With the exception of two games where they faced Tyler Huntley and Will Levis, the Colts have given up big pass plays all year. They have allowed opposing wideouts to have a longest reception of more than 38 yards in all six of their other games, with Chicago and Jacksonville eclipsing that number twice.

Prop bet #3: Joe Flacco Over 0.5 interceptions

-135 at bet365

Joe Flacco came off the bench to throw for a ton of yards with Cleveland last year, but he also threw a pick in all six of his starts for a total of 10 interceptions. He has had mixed results this year, shattering Jacksonville’s pathetic pass defense for 359 yards in Week 5, but throwing for less than 190 yards in his other two games.

The 39-year-old QB is immobile and has struggled since he was injured. Last year he was 15th in the league among 42 qualifying quarterbacks in offensive class when not blitzed (77.0), but only 38th in the blitz with a grade of 48.7. In a smaller sample size this year, Flacco performed only slightly better when he earned a grade of 54.6.

That’s bad news against a defense that scores the highest in the NFL (41.4%) and also leads the league in pressure percentage (30.2%). Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will figure out a way to bring the heat to the left side, where Indy is missing blindside protector Bernhard Raimann.

With the Vikings fifth in the league in defensive dropback EPA and leading the league in interceptions per game (1.7), you can bet Flacco will make a pick on Sunday.

Pages related to this topic