Bears Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL Best Bets for Week 9

More attention should probably be paid to how the Bears’ defense held Jayden Daniels to four field goals until the tipped pass ended the game.

It hasn’t escaped the eyes of fantasy football experts.

If you’re looking at Kyler Murray as a play against the Bears’ defense, it might be best for fantasy owners to go with what SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano has suggested and that’s the Arizona QB coming off two big wins.

Fabiano pointed out that the Bears’ defense has allowed only Jayden Daniels to score more than 17 fantasy points among quarterbacks this season, and he needed Tyrique Stevenson’s gaffe to do that. Let’s not forget coach Matt Eberflus’ assist when he decided not to guard the sideline during the play leading up to the Hail Mary.

The Bears secondary remained viable even without starters Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon playing and with Josh Blackwell and Elijah Hicks in the lineup. They lost three men plus the best backup in London against Jacksonville, and this week could be two if Gordon returns and there is a strong possibility that Stevenson will face some form of disciplinary punishment.

Yet they continue to defend.

It might be best to forget about passers all together in this game, at least for fantasy football.

Caleb Williams is recommended as starter by Fabiano this week. It may not be a wise choice.

“Williams was terrible last week despite having a great game on paper, scoring just 9.3 points in a loss to the Commanders,” he wrote. “Still, he had scored more than 17 points in three of his previous four games, and a game in Arizona is beneficial.”

How beneficial is it actually?

Starting left tackle Braxton Jones is out, backup left tackle Kiran Amegadjie is out. Instead, they start Larry Borom, who has been on IR all year.

And Williams is facing an unorthodox defense. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams had a passer rating in the 40s when under pressure in road games.

The variables don’t mean this is a passing game, even though the Cardinals defense is porous and ranks 26th.

BEARS AND CARDINALS: WHO WINS AND WHY

Here’s who should start and participate in Sunday’s Bears redemption game in Arizona.

1. Bears RB D’Andre Swift

He’s the league’s dirty little secret when it comes to running backs, as he’s way back at No. 11 among Fabiano’s backs this week. He ranks fourth in yards after the catch in the NFL among all players and has 533 yards from scrimmage in the past four games. The only thing that makes it less clear for fantasy owners is how the Bears take him out and put Roschon Johnson or Doug Kramer at the goal line so he doesn’t score many touchdowns. Maybe if he gets the chance. In any case, he would do better than Kramer.

2. Cardinals RB James Conner

He ranks third in the league in yards after the catch, as well as being a legitimate force as a running back and has 712 all-purpose yards. If they spread the field against a Bears defense that wants to play pass coverage, he could get some big yardage. The Bears have been good against opponents in the red zone, but teams are looking to continue attacking their tight pass coverage instead of going after their run defense.

3. Cardinals TE Trey McBride

The Bears’ defense will need both Murray and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and the linebackers should keep an eye on Murray and James Conner. Occasionally McBride will remain open. Last week, Daniels hit Zach Ertz seven times for 77 yards. Ertz felt young again, or at least looked that way. McBride is young and could exploit the soft underbelly of the Bears coverage.

4. Bears TE Cole Kmet

There’s a good reason why Matt Eberflus looked at the stats and said after last week’s game that they needed to focus more on the tight ends and run back more. He didn’t criticize his offensive coordinator there. It was on Williams for not checking or looking past the wideouts in his progression. Kmet had one target. This won’t happen again against a Cardinals scheme that could get out of position to properly tackle a runaway truck heading downhill at a short stride.

CAN BEARS BACKBACK FROM LAST WEEK’S DEVELOPING DEFEAT?

IF BEARS PUNISH TYRIQUE STEVENSON, WHY NOT SHANE WALDRON TOO

BEARS SECONDARY HEALTH IMPROVES BUT O-LINE LOSS BRAXTON JONES

BEARS THAT ARE IN THE BEST POSITION TO DO DAMAGE TO CARDINALS

5. Bears WR Keenan Allen

The center short area and short right are where Allen is most often found and are areas of the field where Arizona’s defense has trouble defending. The bond between Allen and Williams continues to grow and extending drives on third down is important in this game to keep the Cardinals’ explosive offense offside. Looking for a precedent against Arizona? Success. Allen has been in the league for a long time, but has never played against the Cardinals.

6. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore has six catches for 47 yards over the last two games. Sure, the odds are in favor of a breakout for him after that, but he’s had 27 yards or fewer in three of the last four games. That’s a difficult trend to break. Williams just hasn’t trusted him enough to be open to anticipatory throws. Sean Murphy-Bunting and the Cardinals cornerbacks may make it difficult to put up big numbers, but Moore should find a way to contribute.

7. Cardinals WR Greg Dortch

If you wanted a sleeper starter, this wouldn’t be a bad choice. Dortch had two catches for 45 yards against the Bears last season, and their defense can’t defend very well underneath as they look to stop Harrison again.

8. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Pro Football Focus recommends that Harrison be benched by fantasy owners this week because he isn’t as good against zone coverage as he is against man-to-man. And the Bears are zone masters. He’s actually good enough against the zone to start in fantasy ball, so ignore the analytics on this, but don’t expect huge numbers, just decent enough.

1. Bears QB Caleb Williams

The pressure and road stats weigh too heavily against starting him. They really need a Superman-like performance from him to get back on track, but according to PFF stats he has a passer rating of 45.09 when pressured while passing in road games, and a passer rating of 66 .5 in all road races, regardless of the situation. There are too many external issues to stop anyone from thinking they can turn this all around. Once he starts breaking through with numbers on the road, he’d be a play there too.

2. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

If there’s a reason to play him, it’s the dual threat he offers. However, the Bears’ pass defense held its own, whether it was against Daniels, CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence, or against pocket passers like Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton. Murray’s back-to-back strong games aren’t enough to suggest he can put up big numbers against the best red zone defenses or passer rating.

3. Bears WR Rome Odunze

Thoughts are that he could suddenly break out. It’s always a catch or two, but nothing major. However, Odunze only seems to keep an eye on Williams late in the games. Until he gets big numbers consistently, he’s not a play.

4. Cardinals WR Michael Wilson

If Harrison is held in check and Murray can’t put up big numbers, it makes sense for Wilson to get a few more receptions than normal. He has 21 in eight games, but rarely gets more than 12 yards. Yet, this type of receiver is the one who gets under coverage and picks up yards against their zone. It’s just that the Bears haven’t even given up yards and catches to receivers like Wilson in a major way, and Wilson wouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar anyway.

SPORTS ILLUSTRATED PICKS FOR THE WEEK

Defense

The smart money on the team defense is on the Bears, but it’s still a risky play because of the injury factor with Montez Sweat and Jaquan Brisker out, and because Gordon is just returning from injury.

If anyone stands out in the IDP leagues, it’s definitely Cardinals Safety Buddy Baker. The smallest mistakes from Williams and Baker will be there. It seems like their defense is designed to let him roam freely under the free safety so he can get to the ball or make tackles and big plays.

The betting window

Bears on SI record in bear games: 6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread, 4-3 over/under.

This week’s bear forecast: Cardinals 26, Bears 17

Last week around the NFL: 10-5 straight up, 5-10 ATS, 2-2 power plays

Around the NFL so far: 78-42 straight up (.650), 66-52-2 ATS (.559), 17-15 power plays (.531)

This week’s NFL games and picks:

**Week 9 Thursday evening game

*Power play

-The odds are refreshed periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI